MSE news: Government solar panel plans legally flawed

mysterons

Still at it with the mis-information I see, what is your problem?

Martyn1981

Graham and Cardew, I'm terribly sorry to bother you, but is there any chance that you'll be posting your calculations soon to show me where I've gone wrong.

I know I'm getting a little impatient, but I can't wait to learn what the real numbers relating to subsidy free financially viable PV are.

Thanks again, looking forward to your help.

Mart.

Cardew

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Graham and Cardew, I'm terribly sorry to bother you, but is there any chance that you'll be posting your calculations soon to show me where I've gone wrong.

I know I'm getting a little impatient, but I can't wait to learn what the real numbers relating to subsidy free financially viable PV are.

Thanks again, looking forward to your help.

Mart.

Martyn,

I have absolutely no idea of the figures and can see no point in trying to guess.


You are seemingly starting from the POV that solar is desirable, and as far as I am concerned that is flawed reasoning. We have discussed that subject endlessly - unreliable output - none at night when maximum load on grid - doesn't reduce our required generating capacity by a single Watt etc etc.


The reason we have solar electricity is simply that the last Government made a commitment that a certain capacity would be installed.


My point however is simply that if we are to have solar, then produce it as cheaply as possible; and that means solar farms.


If you still think there is mileage in attempting to work out the level of FIT, A Shade Greener and other Rent a Roof firms have publically stated that they will continue to offer installations, even with the FIT for R A R firms reduced to 16.8p/kWh - so their business model must allow a profit at that level of subsidy.

Whilst I see no point in your guess at figures, in your posts you ignore the fact, as stated above, that electricity isn't being exported to the grid for the FIT price. If someone uses 50% of their generated electricity in their house, each exported kWh costs over double the FIT rate.

So if the FIT was 21p/kWh, each exported kWh, in house using 50% of their generated electricity, would cost US (the electricity consumer) 45.1p/kWh.

Using 25% in the house, each exported kWh would cost us 31p/kWh.

Martyn1981

Sorry Cardew, I'm still a little confused, if you have no idea of the numbers why have you been constantly stating that I'm wrong. This seems a little strange. I've slapped no end of figures up for your perusal and critiscism, can't you return the favour.

Secondly, and even more confusing, your example refers to subsidies yet again. Hope you don't mind me repeating the question again, but as my posts refer to subsidy free, financially viable PV - something I would have thought would appeal to your anti-subsidy stance - would you mind taking another look at this, as I'm still very interested in receiving some clear and accurate advice on where you feel I went wrong.

Surely in my example suggesting that a commercial premises, in the right location, may just about be reaching viability - you could just spare 5 mins to explain to me, and anyone else that might be interested, how far out my estimate is.

After all, I'd hate for anyone to get the wrong impression, and conclude that all of the facts you've been providing, don't stand up to thorough scrutiny.

Thanking you again in advance.

Martyn.

PS I note that maximum load has now moved to night time, I was not aware of that. Thanks again.

Cardew

Assumptions, a 4kWp system in middle UK generating 3,400kWh pa and using 25%/50% in the property.

At 25%,
850 kWh used, saving 11p/kWh, = £93.50 + 2,550kWh exported @ 3.1p/kWh = £79.05 Total = £172.55pa

At 50%
1,700kWh used saving 11p/kWh = £187 + 1,700kWh exported @3.1p/kWh = £168,10 Total = £355.10pa

I have used a figure of 3.1p/kWh for exported electricity. Personally, on a strictly commercial basis, I doubt if any firm would be interested in buying such a small amount of electricity – the administration and clerical effort would outweigh any value of an unreliable source of electricity.

Cost £8,000 – loss of interest @3% compounded = £240pa Repairs etc – non starter.

Commercial outfit 20kWp – output 17,000kWh pa – put in your own figures.

Cost? Don’t forget VAT @20%. Firms borrow money @ 6%?

Repairs etc?


P.S. Maximum grid load is late afternoon/earlyevening in winter when solar is producing zilch - semantics rule?

grahamc2003

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Graham and Cardew, I'm terribly sorry to bother you, but is there any chance that you'll be posting your calculations soon to show me where I've gone wrong.

I know I'm getting a little impatient, but I can't wait to learn what the real numbers relating to subsidy free financially viable PV are.

Thanks again, looking forward to your help.

Mart.

I've pointed out several times where you are going wrong.

You in turn have said I must get my information from a man down the pub and also that I am spreading misinformation.

You simply make up things - not sure why. Things like a mid day peak in electricity demand, whereas the actual situation is a small morning peak and a large afternoon peak.

I'm afraid you are a lost cause.

Ps, love the bit about you giving Cardew (C.Eng btw, although I think that won't mean much to you) a hard time!

The sad thing is I think you believe that!

Martyn1981

Cardew wrote: »

Assumptions, a 4kWp system in middle UK generating 3,400kWh pa and using 25%/50% in the property.

At 25%,
850 kWh used, saving 11p/kWh, = £93.50 + 2,550kWh exported @ 3.1p/kWh = £79.05 Total = £172.55pa

At 50%
1,700kWh used saving 11p/kWh = £187 + 1,700kWh exported @3.1p/kWh = £168,10 Total = £355.10pa

I have used a figure of 3.1p/kWh for exported electricity. Personally, on a strictly commercial basis, I doubt if any firm would be interested in buying such a small amount of electricity – the administration and clerical effort would outweigh any value of an unreliable source of electricity.

Cost £8,000 – loss of interest @3% compounded = £240pa Repairs etc – non starter.

Commercial outfit 20kWp – output 17,000kWh pa – put in your own figures.

Cost? Don’t forget VAT @20%. Firms borrow money @ 6%?

Repairs etc?


P.S. Maximum grid load is late afternoon/earlyevening in winter when solar is producing zilch - semantics rule?

Thank you Cardew, I appreciate you taking the time to run some numbers. That is genuine, I'm not being sarcastic.

So running with your numbers, which look spot on, can I play with them slightly.

Firstly, you choose middle England, I know that is fair, but my posts do suggest looking for the best sites and then letting the rest catch up as and when (or even if). Priority, subsidy removal.

So inserting 3,600kWp for S. West England.

Next, as aiming for subsidy removal, looking 3 to 5 years in the future, and the continuation of the 20% year on year panel price reductions.

So inserting £5,000 for install cost.

I would disagree somewhat with your 11p price, especially in 5 years time, but I can see where you're coming from, so will run with it.

Again, as I'm cherry picking, or to put it better, picking the low hanging fruit first, I'd suggest a 50% consumption rate, assuming higher consumption household with daytime use, so,

1,800kWh's used at 11p = £198
1,800kWh's exported at 3.1p = £55.80

Total £253.80, with a ROI (253.8/5,000) = 5%

There shouldn't be any repair costs, but if an inverter fails after 10 years, then proportionalised, that could mean £100pa reduction.

Not a great investment, but to help reduce energy consumption, whether for financial or environmental reasons, it's starting to look reasonable. Loss of interest, yes, but is that a concern when installing double glazing or a new boiler.

Some good news regarding the maths.

1.PV generation probably closer to 3,800units pa, I've run the numbers leaving system losses high, but most systems appear to be easily outdoing original estimates.

2. I think I'm being reasonable in suggesting retail and wholesale prices nearer to 13/15p and 3.5p respectively in 5 years time.

3. Most inverters are now coming with at least 10 year guarantees, some 15 to 20.


Commercial example, today.

20kWp,

cost £30k

income 17,000kWh's, at least 90% consumption

15,300kWh's at 10p = £1,530
1,700kWh's at 3p = £51

Total £1,581 / £30k = 5.27%

Again I suggest a slightly higher generation of about 19Mwh's pa, but I do feel that this is just about viable now.

You're right about VAT implications, but I was balancing that off against tax savings relating to the depreciating asset.

Repairs, hopefully there will be none, and the larger inverters are proportionately more reliable. However that is a consideration.

Annual price reductions on panels of 20% will improve those numbers very quickly.

I appreciate that you may not think these returns are substantial enough, we will all have our own opinions on what is a reasonable return. However I hope that you can now see what I've been saying, that the end is nigh for small scale FITs. PV is pricing itself out of subsidies.

Thank you again for engaging me on the numbers.

Mart.

HalloweenJack

german panels have reduced in wholesale cost by 31% since march - chinese panels more like 45% - and 2012 , supply outstrips demand thanks to the doom and gloom from the likes of ` im a millionaire now` homesun - they are actually earning MORE now than in october - but the legal case sure doesnt mention that small part does it.

Martyn1981

grahamc2003 wrote: »

I've pointed out several times where you are going wrong.

You in turn have said I must get my information from a man down the pub and also that I am spreading misinformation.

You simply make up things - not sure why. Things like a mid day peak in electricity demand, whereas the actual situation is a small morning peak and a large afternoon peak.

I'm afraid you are a lost cause.

Ps, love the bit about you giving Cardew (C.Eng btw, although I think that won't mean much to you) a hard time!

The sad thing is I think you believe that!

Thanks for replying Graham.

I've pointed out several times where you are going wrong.

More than several times I would say, but you have yet to provide any numbers or references.

You in turn have said I must get my information from a man down the pub and also that I am spreading misinformation.

Two things, Firstly, I'm not the only one, on this and other threads that has complained about your misinformation.

Secondly, I didn't say that you got your information from a man down the pub, I implied it. I thought, given both its quality and out-of-dateness (sic), that this might be the case.

That is why I have kept offering to help.

You simply make up things - not sure why. Things like a mid day peak in electricity demand, whereas the actual situation is a small morning peak and a large afternoon peak.

Feel free to give examples, I'm happy to keep on correcting you:

1. Please note consumption around noon

http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/sys_08/chap2/images/fig2-2.gif

2. Note graph, and paragraph underneath

"The pattern of demand across the day is well known. Industrial use concentrates during the working day, unsurprisingly, whereas domestic use is more of a factor in the late afternoon and evening, with a clear peak often appearing about 6pm when commercial and domestic users are both sucking current from the grid."

Note about noon.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7268832.stm

3. national Grid again, I know I've mentioned them twice before, and you don't appear to believe them, but they probably know a little about it. Note around noon.

http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/Demand8.htm

4. University report, I thought you might like a change from me going on about commercial peaks, so I've popped in some info on higher education 2.1.2.. Note around noon.

http://www.oucs.ox.ac.uk/internal/annrep/annrep0607/index.xml?splitLevel=-1

Sorry I can't help you more on this, but I thought a whole 5mins research was enough.

I'm afraid you are a lost cause.

Yes, you probably won't be able to bully me off a thread that I feel I can contribute to. But nobody likes a quitter, so best of luck.

Ps, love the bit about you giving Cardew (C.Eng btw, although I think that won't mean much to you) a hard time!

Thank you that's most kind. I felt it only proper to treat him with more respect, and that has been further confirmed by his willingness to engage further regarding costs and incomes. I'm not sure if I was already aware of his qualifications or not, but thank you for reminding me.

The sad thing is I think you believe that!

Well we all have to believe in something, though I'm a little confused about your fervent dislike for PV, I hope it's not all renewables. To constantly beat PV over the head because it doesn't work in the dark, seems a little obvious. Wind turbines don't work when there's no wind. Can you find one single solution to our energy needs, shouldn't we have a diverse variety.

Dinorwig is a perfect example of instant power on demand for peak loading, something you (and to be fair the national grid) are perfectly aware is essential. However, it is not designed for constant generation, does that somehow undermine it's specialisms?

Thank you for listening.

Mart.

supamart

As everyone here (well most peeps) seem experts with the solar industry.

Could I ask a question.

I have had a twelve panel system for four weeks now on my south facing roof in the Midlands.

To date my total power achieved is 40 kW.

Does this sound correct ?