MSE news: Government solar panel plans legally flawed

Martyn1981

HalloweenJack wrote: »

i read it wrong then - this court ruling is badly flawed (but so is domestic solar as well - 100mw fields in cornwall is better than 500000 houses with a dozen panels on the roof)

That was an assumption I had too, but I was running numbers round my head last night (more productive than counting sheep), and tied myself up in knots.

I was trying to work out which system would hit subsidy free profits first, domestic, commercial or generation (PV farms). Since if subsidies are taken off the table, I doubt anyone would mind what you, your office, or your generation business was spending its money on.

Doubt I've thought of everything, but a domestic installation adds scaffolding costs, but saves on support costs.

A commercial installation saves on economies of scale, but incurs ground mount frames and their installation. A choice of roofs may allow optimum southern orientation.

A PV farm saves even more on economies of scale, but also incurs the ground mounts and installation costs, plus grid connection and hardening costs. Not sure how much those would be, think I've heard of figures near £100K, hope not. Definite optimum southern orientation.

A PV farm would also incur annual running costs: land, admin, insurance and security. None of those apply to domestic, but commercial may incur some additional insurance fees, not sure.

Next though I suddenly realised that the finishing line is different for each.

A PV farm has to hit the wholesale price to gain subsidy free profitability. Around 3p.

Domestic, would need to hit a figure somewhere between wholesale and retail, depending on consumption and export. Maybe 8p for 50% consumption (13p + 3.1p) / 2 = 8p. Maybe 5.5p for 25% consumption (13p + 3.1p + 3.1p + 3.1p) / 4 = 5.5p.

Commercial gets the best of both worlds as they would probably not be able to generate more than they consume, so 100% consumption when the business is in use, so at least 5/7's at retail and the rest at wholesale, but I don't know what an average commercial rate is. Suspect the final answer is still a far easier target than domestic.

So which will be subsidy free first, if at all?

Only my guess, but commercial, then residential, then generation.

Anyone care to point out the many factors I'm sure to have missed, as this is little more than a first draft 'brain scribble'?

Cheers.

Mart.

dilemma-man

I missed out on this. If this goes back on do you think its going to be the same deal i.e before 12th dec?

Seanymph

I don't think it ever will be, no. It may still be a 'good deal' but not as good as it was for people having it installed.

Martyn1981

dilemma-man wrote: »

I missed out on this. If this goes back on do you think its going to be the same deal i.e before 12th dec?

Total gamble now, till we get the next announcement, following the legal tousle.

However given that the industry was looking for a figure of 28p. I thought 25p was fair. Whatever is decided will be massively reduced.

Following industry price drops through Nov and Dec, I've got to now eat my words and acknowledge 21p as a decent rate.

The reduction could be announced today, the 1st of Jan or the 1st of April, who knows, but whenever it happens the new rate will be far, far lower than the outdated 43.3p rate.

Hopefully the govt will keep on top of this now with 6 monthly reviews!

If you can get a decent install price and return based on 21p, then might be worth a punt at getting the system registered before the new date. But, when is the new date, and will the tariff be back dated in some way?

Mart.

magyar

I don't think there is any chance the tariff will be kept at the old level. I think the likely outcome is maybe a slightly lower drop or most probably a slight extension to cover people who invested prior to 12 Dec but couldn't get the panels installed.

HUDengineer

One thing I noticed is that the old subsidy was so generous that PV installations were being fitted in far from ideal locations, with East and West facing installations able to still turn a profit to the purchaser. That is wasteful of resources (both the limited subsidy and the materials consumed in manufacturing the panels), made financially viable only through the subsidy. This does nothing for the green planet eco credentials that PV is supposed to be addressing.

It is also a personal view that PV, while not as big a blot on the landscape as Wind Farms, does non the less spoil many houses in towns and villages. But the real travesty is that these tiny PV installations are so expensive and wasteful, and what should have been encouraged is allowing individuals to buy shares in larger PV farms, where economies of scale make it a better investment. What I see happening before my eyes shows how politicians are chasing the popular ideas without a thought for what actually makes economic sense. How much resource will we waste in inefficient installations, I wonder? When will people see the light?

Andy

Martyn1981

HUDengineer wrote: »

One thing I noticed is that the old subsidy was so generous that PV installations were being fitted in far from ideal locations, with East and West facing installations able to still turn a profit to the purchaser. That is wasteful of resources (both the limited subsidy and the materials consumed in manufacturing the panels), made financially viable only through the subsidy. This does nothing for the green planet eco credentials that PV is supposed to be addressing.

It is also a personal view that PV, while not as big a blot on the landscape as Wind Farms, does non the less spoil many houses in towns and villages. But the real travesty is that these tiny PV installations are so expensive and wasteful, and what should have been encouraged is allowing individuals to buy shares in larger PV farms, where economies of scale make it a better investment. What I see happening before my eyes shows how politicians are chasing the popular ideas without a thought for what actually makes economic sense. How much resource will we waste in inefficient installations, I wonder? When will people see the light?

Andy

I think the idea of investing in a local PV farm is a great idea. And could help to bring a community closer together if it was as inclusive as possible.

Regarding less efficient installs, remember that the subsidy is paid out directly based on generation, so a system that produces say 20% less units, gets 20% less subsidy. That seems fair, though not necessarily a sensible money saving investment for the householders pennies.

Mart.

grahamc2003

HUDengineer wrote: »

One thing I noticed is that the old subsidy was so generous that PV installations were being fitted in far from ideal locations, with East and West facing installations able to still turn a profit to the purchaser. That is wasteful of resources (both the limited subsidy and the materials consumed in manufacturing the panels), made financially viable only through the subsidy. This does nothing for the green planet eco credentials that PV is supposed to be addressing.

It is also a personal view that PV, while not as big a blot on the landscape as Wind Farms, does non the less spoil many houses in towns and villages. But the real travesty is that these tiny PV installations are so expensive and wasteful, and what should have been encouraged is allowing individuals to buy shares in larger PV farms, where economies of scale make it a better investment. What I see happening before my eyes shows how politicians are chasing the popular ideas without a thought for what actually makes economic sense. How much resource will we waste in inefficient installations, I wonder? When will people see the light?

Andy

Agreed completely. Soalr panels are purely a political imperative, and there isn't much pretence that they are any sort of engineering solution to anything in the UK, which clearly anyone with a basic scientific/engineering knowledge knows.

As to when the supporters see the light - well that, imv, is ironically when the lights start going out, which will be in a few short years if the current station decommissioning plan is followed (but I note the forced closing of DRAX - our largest coal station - has been postponed, strange how a dose of reality actually trumps the green lobby just before disasterous actions are taken).

Incidentally, while i support the postponement of a coal station nowhere near its design life, the likelyhood is that the closure of our Nuclear stations will also be postponed - a situation I think irresponsible and wouldn't support, some of them being at the end of their design lives.

Martyn1981

If a domestic or commercial PV installation became economically viable without any form of subsidy (1 to 5 years perhaps), would anyone still have any objections to it?

Short sentence, big question - but then I suppose that's life in general.

Mart.

rogerblack

Martyn1981 wrote: »

If a domestic or commercial PV installation became economically viable without any form of subsidy (1 to 5 years perhaps), would anyone still have any objections to it?

Short sentence, big question - but then I suppose that's life in general.

Mart.

They are often aesthetically poor, and can impact the look of places significantly, in some cases negatively.
Next generation 'building integrated' panels can blend in with the roof.

I'd hope that several things happen in the nearish term, but am not holding my breath.

Panel/inverter prices continue to fall - likely in the medium term.

Mid-scale solar is not penalised against small-scale - and conversely that small scale solar is not rewarded.

This would - for example - mean that my local shopping centre with 30000m^2 could put in 2250kW of solar, or a farmer with an acre of unproductive land next to an electricity substation could put in 300kW.

Next, that MCS is made optional for all installations under 10kW.
For small installs - unless the electricity company has issues in this area, there is scope for DIY.

In some cases, this can be very cheap to fit, or integrated into new structures.

For example, imagine a nice, well-insulated shed, with a solar 1kW roof, sold by garden centres.

Or, a kit suitable for installation on north facing walls, vertically.
Similarly - why shouldn't every conservatory sold have at least an option of part or all of the roof being a solar panel.

The above would have no FIT, and be paid at the normal price for electricity, less the normal generation payment.

All smart meters (being rolled out soon) should be able to cope with this (in an ideal world).