Nationwide November +0.4% MOM +1.6% YOY

geneer

julieq wrote: »

The resilience is due to the supply shortfall. It really is as simple as that. At some point this penny is going to drop.

Land reg -3.2YOY.

Try again Jules. Cos this ain't that resilient.

julieq

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

In what way? Do you think prices will match inflation? Or exceed it?

Well inflation will most likely be dropping into next year, so this is a moving target. I think there'll be modest upwards pressure on prices over the next 12 months or so, so maybe 3-4% YoY? Something like that. I would expect sentiment to improve generally into next spring, as I've said before.

chewmylegoff

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I will be offering a prize at the end of this thread for the hardest working family.

That prize must surely go to the irrepressible mrree and his family of seventeen alter egos.

noodle_doodle

Welcome to the balloon slowly deflating in the corner, rather than getting popped by a toddler with a fork. As predicted by most people for the last 5 years.

Graham_Devon

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Comments from another site:

Thanks.

Missed you posting the comments from another site when prices fell on the LR yesterday!!

julieq

With respect noodle doodle, that has more or less been the "bull" consensus, but it's a long way from the bear consensus which was for very sharp falls (and indeed still is).

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

The resilience is due to the supply shortfall. It really is as simple as that. At some point this penny is going to drop.

If you want to believe that the low interest rates are a major factor, well bear in mind that most houses were bought at higher rates

Sorry Julie, I got as far as what I have quoted above, and seriously, you expect us to believe low interest rates are NOT a factor?

Grand delusion.

Again, it's all about supply and demand, unless prices fall.

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

This just goes to prove the point that the LR figures are pretty laggy.

Theres no doubt that land reg lags pimp. (The BOE take this as 3 months standard).But given that at no point in the last 6 months has Nationwide shown a YOY drop greater than 1.1%, your little theory appears to have been blown out of the water.

A reasonable conclusion must be to take the nationwide figures with a pinch of salt. As with Halifax.

Now...LET THE NUMBER-WANG CONTINUE!

noodle_doodle

julieq wrote: »

With respect noodle doodle, that has more or less been the "bull" consensus, but it's a long way from the bear consensus which was for very sharp falls (and indeed still is).

They've had sharp falls. Straight after the peak. This is us skidding to a stop on the lower slopes of the mountain.

ruggedtoast

This is a somewhat bitter pill for those awaiting significant falls. I know that when I was looking to buy I just wanted some clear indication of what the market was doing (preferably going decisively downwards).

The pattern seems to be the the LR lags Haliwide by a few months so we are probably not going to be seeing significant further LR falls for a while.

For what its worth this broadly seems to bear out what I'm seeing in my wealthy densely populated part of the SE. Not much on the market, not much selling, what is going is the better properties but at roughly the same prices they were going for last year. The bulk of the lower end of the market mostly either can't or won't discount to what they would need to sell or buyers have wised up to the fact that their prices are just a rip off and they would rather rent.

For those waiting to buy the silver lining is that you will probably be getting a much better property for your money than you would have done although these real term falls arent really reflected in the stats. NW prices are a very crude tool that can't identify 'houses next to scummers with cars up on bricks', 'houses too close to the railway', and 'houses overlooking the scummy shop with all the kids hanging about outside' that you spend a lot of time visiting and then disregarding.

There were a lot of people in 2007 stretching every financial sinew and ending up on some cruddy council estate which isn't happening now.