Nationwide November +0.4% MOM +1.6% YOY

nembot

The state of the UK economy and you guys are crowing about NW figures suggesting the previous drops were a blip...

Hahaha, made my day you have

doire_2

julieq wrote: »

It's a matter of profound indifference to me what my house is worth, because I live in it. However it's a bit rich to revel in the idea that the entire economy should crash and burn so a financially illiterate parasite can get a cheap house at someone else's expense: that would have a far more significant effect on the bulk of "hard working individuals and families" than modest price rises or stagnation in housing costs.

When prices rise do you raise a smile?

Really2

Wrong type of skint people buying again.

angrypirate

So positive MoM by 0.4% and YoY by 1.6%. As some people on here have been expecting, complete stagnation for the housing market which in my humble opinion is down to the low interest rates.

Food for thought - figures are "surprisingly resilient" according to Robert Gardner (NW chief economist) , yet are only just positive for the year (and even negative when you take into account inflation). Shows that the NW were (and presumably still are) expecting some serious falls.

MrRee_2

This 'bears' (pun intended) out all I have said over the past 6 weeks .... the properties around here are selling off-plan, before they hit the market if secondhand ... there is nothing for sale and a load of buyers begging for property.

Result is a boom in prices ... the bears in the North can moan all they like - this reality is coming to a town in the North very shortly.

The wise man/woman waiting in the North will jump in right now and bag a bargain ... be ahead of the curve for once, I am offering free advice here.

geneer

annnnnnnnnd....the bulls are back.

Yes gang. lets talk about nationwide like the land reg wasn't issued just the other day.

1:1 so far for this months numberwhang. Everything to play for.

joguest

Interesting divergence of opinion between the LR and Nationwide (-3.2% YoY compared with +1.6% YoY). I know which I'd bet on being right.

For Hamish:



(Haliwide NSA, LR SA and shifted back a couple of months)

ruggedtoast

I will be offering a prize at the end of this thread for the hardest working family.

neverdespairgirl

julieq wrote: »

So unusually for a bull on this forum I'm somewhat bullish for the next 12 months.

In what way? Do you think prices will match inflation? Or exceed it?

julieq

The resilience is due to the supply shortfall. It really is as simple as that. At some point this penny is going to drop.

If you want to believe that the low interest rates are a major factor, well bear in mind that most houses were bought at higher rates, prior to the crisis. A small number of lucky people have seen outlay reduce massively, many have been able to fix at lowish long term rates. Higher rates might send a few marginal borrowers over the edge, but not enormous numbers of them, and as has been pointed out many times default rates in this country are very very low indeed, there is no generalised affordability issue for homeowners. Similarly there's no evidence that large numbers of repossessions have been prevented by lender forebearance or increased government support. Bears want to believe there is some great conspiracy to support the market, but there really isn't one. We've been fortunate in maintaining good levels of employment, which is good (right?) and that's a more significant factor in allowing mortgage repayments than low interest rates.

I was looking at HPC just now, and there is such a "sheeple"/"matrix" paranoia there that is really is becoming cultish to the point of self parody. What's happening to the UK housing market isn't difficult to understand, and there really isn't a vast conspiracy of VIs and governments because there doesn't need to be. The same fiscal measures broadly speaking were used in the US as here and the market still tanked. Why? Because there is no supply shortfall there.

I don't take any pleasure in rises, beyond the enjoyment of understanding an underlying mechanism well enough to gave a good chance of guessing what happens next. But it really does irritate me that bears can bay witlessly for falls that would collapse the economy completely while wittering about this being for the common good. It isn't. A moderation of housing costs is a good thing, and the way to get that done is to create more housing. Putting half of the hardworking families in the country out of work doesn't help the common man one iota.