Land Registry MoM -0.9 % YoY - 3.2 %

RenovationMan

I'm surprised at the weakness of these falls, given that we are about to go into Recession Pt2, the Euro zone is imploding as we speak and inflation is running at 5%. It just goes to show how robust the housing sector in the UK really is.

My own view has always been to take these sorts of average figures with a pinch of salt and to concentrate mightily on your target area, making friends with all of the estate agents to get the inside track. I remember getting my first house for a song because their estate agent told me that the owner had died and the property had been inherited by three people who were desperate to get rid and get the money banked. I put in a low offer and after some token resistance they capitulated. I found out later that I paid 10K less in 1995 than the original owner had paid in 1985.

As with all things financial, DYOR and don't get too stuck on a particular percentage or price - you might never find a house that hits it and instead miss out on decent bargains.

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Prices will need to drop 0.83% in November just to maintain the 3.2% YoY

"But I'm not a bull!!"

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

"But I'm not a bull!!"

Your point????????

Do you not like the facts?

I merely articulated that a 0.83% fall is needed in November to maintain the YoY at 3.2%

Any less and the YoY falls.

any more and the YoY increases.

Please explain how that is "Bull" or "Bear"

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Your point????????

Do you not like the facts?

I merely articulated that a 0.83% fall is needed in November to maintain the YoY at 3.2%

Any less and the YoY falls.

any more and the YoY increases.

Please explain how that is "Bull" or "Bear"

Do you ever work it out the other way!? Everything is in a positive light. I'm just messing with you because I find it amusing you actually class yourself as a housing bear, funnily enough when prices fall, but have a mini celebration and a pop at the people you class yourself as when they rise.

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne

The falls will only accelerate from here. At least another -5% in the next 6 months.

michaels

Significant but not problematic whereas inflation at 0% and house prices falling 8% is a problem. (we are also back to the 'which inflation' question, prices or wages).

As a long term savings vehicle the increase in rents due to lack of supply makes housing still look a solid investment especially given other long term yields are so disappointing. Is a BTL yielding 5%+ definitely a worse investment over 15 years than guilts yielding less than 3% or equities yielding even less?

Generali wrote: »

Monthly figures are, of course, just noise.

Inflation at 5% and house prices dropping by 3%pa is pretty significant however, IMHO at least.

noodle_doodle

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne wrote: »

The falls will only accelerate from here. At least another -5% in the next 6 months.

How is it when there's any falls it then becomes obvious they will accelerate? It's the same type of over-reaction that has people fleeing the country in a rage when they rise 0.3% or whatever.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Do you ever work it out the other way!? Everything is in a positive light. I'm just messing with you because I find it amusing you actually class yourself as a housing bear, funnily enough when prices fall, but have a mini celebration and a pop at the people you class yourself as when they rise.

I don't label myself as either bear or bull.
That said: -

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Yes, I'm a bull who said in my vested interest area its possible to see 20% drop
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=898381

I'm a "bull" who said the UK average house price is 22% overvalued
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=11258337&postcount=35

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=12108113&postcount=3

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=11949669&postcount=13

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=11285059&postcount=18

I thought "bulls" think prices only ever go up (below posts show I believe they can go down)

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=11285059&postcount=18

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=6599263&postcount=9

If these all fit your sterotype of a "bull" then yes I am one.

I try not to have a pop at people either. I try to stick to the facts.
I have succomed occasionally in the past, but on reflection it's not worthwhile.

How do you fair in the "having a pop" index?

P.S. I do have a positive outlook on life. It's far better than being pessimistic.

The important part is to consider the reality of the situation.

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne

noodle_doodle wrote: »

How is it when there's any falls it then becomes obvious they will accelerate? It's the same type of over-reaction that has people fleeing the country in a rage when they rise 0.3% or whatever.

How is it that you simply assume that I have concluded that falls = more falls and that the assertion does not take into consideration the other prevailing winds?

Here's to the next leg down. :beer:

RenovationMan

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne wrote: »

How is it that you simply assume that I have concluded that falls = more falls and that the assertion does not take into consideration the other prevailing winds?

Here's to the next leg down. :beer:

Here's to another bear sockie. :beer: