Come on bears, admit it.....

ruggedtoast

If I could go back in time I would go back to 2009 and make a username called HAMISH_MCTAVISH and then troll web forums endlessly trying to upset people who didnt own houses.

Oh wait...

ess0two

ruggedtoast wrote: »

If I could go back in time I would go back to 2009 and make a username called HAMISH_MCTAVISH and then troll web forums endlessly trying to upset people who didnt own houses.

Oh wait...

Hey your doing fine with the username now,why change it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

Early 2009 was the time to catch the bottom of the mini 'crash'.

Very true.

homelessskilledworker

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If you'd known back in 2007 that:

- house prices would fall by 20% or so as a national average,

- then recover to just 10% falls as a national average within a few years.

- that base rates would fall to 0.5% and stay there for 5 years or more

- while rents soared to new record highs

- that you could have got a lifetime tracker mortgage at 100% LTV for just base rate plus 0.5%

- but that 2 years later you'd need a 40% deposit to get base plus 2% and even then only on a short term deal and reverting to an SVR of base + 3% or more....


You'd all have bought a house, wouldn't you?:rotfl:

Sadly Hamish, where you are going to come unstuck with so many other property bulls is you lack of vision and total rose tinted glasses opinions.
Your reference point when it comes to property as with so many property bulls is the last 10 years, not the hundreds that you should be using.
What you seem to be totally blanking out is a new era, an era where so called developed countries are not going to be able to call the shots. Just to keep it simple for you we are going to lose trade, postion and more imporantly for you GDP or growth.
This is not guess work on my part, it's what is happening as I type and this year and next is going to be awful.

Very soon many people are going to use their biggest assets to create cash in order to survive, in the case of this board that is going to be property. The only thing is that it is only going to take a small proportion of people to do this before speculative selling starts taking place. There will be 1000's of potential buyers in a few years who will be kicking themselves that they did not sell today.

I sometimes look at the likes of Kirsty Allsopp and think she personifies the last 10 to 15 years. A know it all little brat who thinks she understand everything because of her pampered short time on earth. You look at this naive snotty nosed spoilt girl who is convinced she understands everything, when there are 90 year old British social Historians who will happily tell you they know nothing of what is to come.

Here is something even more simple for you to maybe understand and no doubt ignore Hamish, turn onto the present day news, read serious broadsheets(not the express) and try and understand what many serious pundits are trying to tell you... WORLD ECONOMIES ARE IN THE S***...

And property is nothing special that it will not escape, only in the heads of those that are on their knees praying and trolling on MSE discussion boards.

paulmapp8306

I dont know if Im a Bull or a Bear

Ive lived in trented (though Forces so dirt cheap) accommodation for 23 years. Not because I didnt WANT a house of my own, but firstly because I wouldnt be able to live in it and seconly because I couldnt afford it.

I am going to buy mid 2012 to early 2013, as Im due out of the forces, have a decent deposit (only possible due to inheritance) and couldnt live with renting for three reasons:

1. Renting is more expensive than paying a mortgage.
2. Renting is money down the drain
3. I crave stability (after moving every 2-3 years for the last 24), and couldnt live with 6 month rental contracts.

While I admit if I could find a 10 year or longer contract for rental property (including a set rental increase per year as a %) I might be tempted, I genuinely think if yo CAN get a mortgage and CAN afford to pay it then your pretty stupid not to.

That said, I firmly believe that while house prices are cheaper than recently they are still too expensive. In fact I feel they have been too expensive (compared to average incomes) sinse the early/mid 80s. I think they need to drop (on average) another 20-30% to be reasonably preiced for the majority. Idont hink that will happen, but doesnt stop me believing it to be true.

so - Bear or Bull, or am I just a Bell???

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Your reference point when it comes to property as with so many property bulls is the last 10 years, not the hundreds that you should be using.

So you envisage a return to the olden days when 90% of the property was owned by 10% of the population, as wealth was consolidated in the hands of the few.

Funnily enough, that's exactly the road we're on....

The percentage of property in owner occupation is falling and will continue to fall as there is now no chance the UK can build the quantity of houses it needs to prevent the next boom.

Probably not the outcome the bears had in mind when they wished for a crash, but "law of unintended consequences" and all that.;)

andybenw

paulmapp8306 wrote: »

I dont know if Im a Bull or a Bear



so - Bear or Bull, or am I just a Bell???

A Bell unfortunately. Forces wages are pretty good and have been for the past twenty years since I joined up.

During that time you have been living in ultra cheap married quarters instead of paying a mortgage, and yet have not managed to save a hefty sum.

Indeed, when house prices started to rise in the late 90's Buy to Let was already on the rise. You could easily have purchased a house and let it out for the next 12 or so years until you left the forces.

Money saving is the last website you should be on with your record.

ukcarper

paulmapp8306 wrote: »

I dont know if Im a Bull or a Bear

Ive lived in trented (though Forces so dirt cheap) accommodation for 23 years. Not because I didnt WANT a house of my own, but firstly because I wouldnt be able to live in it and seconly because I couldnt afford it.

I am going to buy mid 2012 to early 2013, as Im due out of the forces, have a decent deposit (only possible due to inheritance) and couldnt live with renting for three reasons:

1. Renting is more expensive than paying a mortgage.
2. Renting is money down the drain
3. I crave stability (after moving every 2-3 years for the last 24), and couldnt live with 6 month rental contracts.

While I admit if I could find a 10 year or longer contract for rental property (including a set rental increase per year as a %) I might be tempted, I genuinely think if yo CAN get a mortgage and CAN afford to pay it then your pretty stupid not to.

That said, I firmly believe that while house prices are cheaper than recently they are still too expensive. In fact I feel they have been too expensive (compared to average incomes) sinse the early/mid 80s. I think they need to drop (on average) another 20-30% to be reasonably preiced for the majority. Idont hink that will happen, but doesnt stop me believing it to be true.

so - Bear or Bull, or am I just a Bell???

Although I agree houses are expensive (compared to wages) in the mid 90s they were the cheapest they have been since the war (compared to wages).

paulmapp8306

andybenw wrote: »

A Bell unfortunately. Forces wages are pretty good and have been for the past twenty years since I joined up.

During that time you have been living in ultra cheap married quarters instead of paying a mortgage, and yet have not managed to save a hefty sum.

Indeed, when house prices started to rise in the late 90's Buy to Let was already on the rise. You could easily have purchased a house and let it out for the next 12 or so years until you left the forces.

Money saving is the last website you should be on with your record.

Yeh - i know. Hindsight - wonderfull isnt it.

Basically, joined in 89. At that time you bought a house with you pension lump sum so no real thought was given to life after the army.

anyway - 2/3 years in I met a girl and got engaged, wedding arranged, paid for etc - then she left I was left with several thousand debts, and entered depression. The next 4/5 years saw me spending on ME. I did have things to show as I generally wasnt a p*ss head, but I ended up just about living in my means by 1998.

i came to my sences then and started to get straight - but met my future wife in 1999, and still had lots of debt. We married in 2000, and quickly found we (between us) had more going out than in - with quarter rent, food, utilities etc (didnt have any of that when single) and still trying to pay off the debts. So a DMP was sorted. Ive been paying that for the last 11 years, mainly due to payments reducing once we had out children (2003 and 2005). This (quite rightly) has meant no chance of owning a home for the last nearly 12 years.

Hands up, i was stupid when my ex fiance left, got myself into a mess that I could only susstain as i was a single soldier with no other real outgoings. Im happy I got married, love my kids and have made every effort to pay ALL of my debts (not taken the easy routes out). housing has been my main worry for at least 10 years, and we have done everything we can to get us sorted before we hit "civi street", and thanks to an inheritance (dont have it yet mind) we will be clear of debt, have repaired our credit history and have a decent deposit just when we need it.

Ive been very very luck in the end, and freely admit i "SHOULD" have bought a house once Id completed training back in 91 - and should certainly not got in the financial mess I did - however thats life sometimes.

Sorry - sob/back story wasnt really suited to this thread - but felt I needed to explain a little.

andybenw

paulmapp8306 wrote: »

Yeh - i know. Hindsight - wonderfull isnt it.

Basically, joined in 89. At that time you bought a house with you pension lump sum so no real thought was given to life after the army.

anyway - 2/3 years in I met a girl and got engaged, wedding arranged, paid for etc - then she left I was left with several thousand debts, and entered depression. The next 4/5 years saw me spending on ME. I did have things to show as I generally wasnt a p*ss head, but I ended up just about living in my means by 1998.

i came to my sences then and started to get straight - but met my future wife in 1999, and still had lots of debt. We married in 2000, and quickly found we (between us) had more going out than in - with quarter rent, food, utilities etc (didnt have any of that when single) and still trying to pay off the debts. So a DMP was sorted. Ive been paying that for the last 11 years, mainly due to payments reducing once we had out children (2003 and 2005). This (quite rightly) has meant no chance of owning a home for the last nearly 12 years.

Hands up, i was stupid when my ex fiance left, got myself into a mess that I could only susstain as i was a single soldier with no other real outgoings. Im happy I got married, love my kids and have made every effort to pay ALL of my debts (not taken the easy routes out). housing has been my main worry for at least 10 years, and we have done everything we can to get us sorted before we hit "civi street", and thanks to an inheritance (dont have it yet mind) we will be clear of debt, have repaired our credit history and have a decent deposit just when we need it.

Ive been very very luck in the end, and freely admit i "SHOULD" have bought a house once Id completed training back in 91 - and should certainly not got in the financial mess I did - however thats life sometimes.

Sorry - sob/back story wasnt really suited to this thread - but felt I needed to explain a little.

At least with your inheritance you're now in a position to buy. Add to that gratuity and pension and you're not in that bad a spot really.

After all, what other job gives you a pension in your early forties.