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Debate House Prices
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How long before the inevitable nominal fall of 35% in houseprices
Comments
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Where is the evidence? householders were paying their mortgage in 2007 when BR was 5.75% so what evidence that masses of people will suddenly fleeing for the exits at BR 3%.
If the base rate were to rise 5.75% tomorrow the UK economy and housing market would plummet like never seen before, I am amazed you or anyone else could think any different.0 -
Where is the evidence? householders were paying their mortgage in 2007 when BR was 5.75% so what evidence that masses of people will suddenly fleeing for the exits at BR 3%.
House prices fell at the end of 2007 and did not stop falling till the beginning of 2009 when interest rates fell and when the government agreed with the bust banks that they would not repossess in the vast majority of cases.
Whether a rise in rates to 3% will make any difference to prices now I suspect will depend on whether those who were struggling at the end of 2007 and through 2008 have fixed their debt problems.0 -
House prices fell at the end of 2007 and did not stop falling till the beginning of 2009 when interest rates fell and when the government agreed with the bust banks that they would not repossess in the vast majority of cases.
Whether a rise in rates to 3% will make any difference to prices now I suspect will depend on whether those who were struggling at the end of 2007 and through 2008 have fixed their debt problems.
House prices fell because the banks dramatically reduced lending to first time buyers (in fact all buyers), nothing to do with interest rates.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
homelessskilledworker wrote: »If the base rate were to rise 5.75% tomorrow the UK economy and housing market would plummet like never seen before, I am amazed you or anyone else could think any different.
My point was that people could pay their mortgages when BR was 5.75% so why would increases to 3% (not on the agenda for a while) collapse the markets?'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
heathcote123 wrote: »How come youve got an 18k debt in your sig then?
Because I still owe £18k. Thats been reduced from £44k
Thing is Ive been lucky nsome ways. Ive learned to budget properly and know what is realistic to commit to.
How will I be able to buy cash? Due to 3 inheritances - a small one from my gran (who was 95 when she died recently), £20k from my dads estate (who died 24 years ago but mum has been holding his legacy until either she dies or me and my suster needed it for housing), and some from my wifes 2nd cousin (who we didnt ever see) who died reently of cancer - leaving no children, wife, parents or will. the latter one will be somewhere between £30 and £60k. Thats a total of between £55k and £85k. Add to that I leave the army in 18 months and will also receive a pensionlump sum of between £33k and £47k (depending if I commute any). Thats how I could buy cash.0 -
Where is the evidence? householders were paying their mortgage in 2007 when BR was 5.75% so what evidence that masses of people will suddenly fleeing for the exits at BR 3%.
How about the rates lenders are giving? That hasnt only got to do with BR now has it.
When BR was 5.75% youy could get new mortgages at around 1% above BR. Now - even with BR at 0.5% is difficult to get a mortgage much below 3.5% and more commonly 4%+. thats 3 to 3.5% above BR.
Fast forward to BR rises up to 3% - and mortgages are now at 6% to 6.5% which is a similar level to 2007. Difference is with other costs such as energy, fuel, food etc taking a much greater % of income - nand with wages falling in real terms, even that small(ish) raise will put a LOT of people in trouble.
It MAY be that banks reduce their lending back to 1% above BR - but I doubt it. Even if they did you'd need to re-mortgage to get those rates and mortgages are getting harder to find as it is. Banks dont want to lend.0 -
homelessskilledworker wrote: »I will tell you exactly what I am saying...
There are a substantial amount of homeowners that are gritting their teeth and holding out. Some have already gone into negative equity, and some who are so much in debt need to hold on. Many are also wanting to move, upsize, downsize, off load BTL mistakes, many have been given a cushion when really they would have gone under by now... ALL are waiting and praying for better times that are just not going to arrive, at least not in the short or medium term. As the months pass and then turn to years more pressure will be applied to sell assets, and the reason I mention divorce and death is that they are the sales that really cannot be put off, fighting hard up siblings won't stand for it.
The growth we need is not going to come for a long time if ever, for our postion to balance out in the world property prices need to fall by a lot.
Cut and pasted from those hopeful beings over on HPC by the looks of it.
There are still around 70k houses selling each month and these will include your distressed sellers referred to above - my view is that there are between 20k and 30k distressed sellers each month and that sales figures will never go much below 30k.
Your attitude dates back to the 2004 HPC agenda when they thought that everything that could go wrong would and the only possible outcome would house prices crashing - if all those clever people were wrong then don't expect me to take your current guess as being any more reliable.
Honestly, people were coping with a base rate of 5% for most of 2008, why wouldn't they be able to cope with an increase now?0 -
Cut and pasted from those hopeful beings over on HPC by the looks of it.
There are still around 70k houses selling each month and these will include your distressed sellers referred to above - my view is that there are between 20k and 30k distressed sellers each month and that sales figures will never go much below 30k.
Your attitude dates back to the 2004 HPC agenda when they thought that everything that could go wrong would and the only possible outcome would house prices crashing - if all those clever people were wrong then don't expect me to take your current guess as being any more reliable.
Honestly, people were coping with a base rate of 5% for most of 2008, why wouldn't they be able to cope with an increase now?
Do you know what Pimp, some people you just can't debate with, no matter how you form an argument they will just stick their fingers in their ears and shout "nah nah nah".
Here is a couple of analogys that you can just ignore again, man jumps of a 50 storey building, as he passes the 1st floor before hitting the ground he shouts "told you, I am still alive".
The second one is more topical and up to date and requires you to make an informed opinion. If Greece to leave the Euro tomorrow would you say that they got into trouble ...
1. today
2. many years ago
Going from your past record on housing debates I would say that you would answer 1. For the record I do not think you debate, I think you come on here fearfull of a property crash as much as anyone, but don't worry you are not the only one on here.:)0 -
homelessskilledworker wrote: »Do you know what Pimp, some people you just can't debate with, no matter how you form an argument they will just stick their fingers in their ears and shout "nah nah nah".
Here is a couple of analogys that you can just ignore again, man jumps of a 50 storey building, as he passes the 1st floor before hitting the ground he shouts "told you, I am still alive".
The second one is more topical and up to date and requires you to make an informed opinion. If Greece to leave the Euro tomorrow would you say that they got into trouble ...
1. today
2. many years ago
Going from your past record on housing debates I would say that you would answer 1. For the record I do not think you debate, I think you come on here fearfull of a property crash as much as anyone, but don't worry you are not the only one on here.:)
I'm not sticking my fingers in my ears with this one. How is this:"over 500,000 die each year in the UK, thats a lot of houses".
going to have an impact on house prices which has not already been witnessed?0 -
paulmapp8306 wrote: »1
Im hoping 2013
only as that5s when Im looking at buying and will have a decent deposit even on todays prices (50% ish). If there is a 25% fall over the next 18 months I could even buy cash
Your hopes for prices to be at the "bottom" in 2013 appears to be hinged on when you percieve to be debt free.
It's interesting that you believe you will have repaid £18k and build up a decent deposit such that you could buy for cash in only 18months time yet you also claim that property is unnafordable.
To clear £18k and build up say a £54k deposit / purchase for £54k then you must have approx £4k of spare income each month.
[edit]
Just read your post about a triple inheritance and forces pension
[/edit]:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0
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