How long before the inevitable nominal fall of 35% in houseprices

paulmapp8306

I still dont get the argument.

The question is NOT how many households there are in the UK. the question is how many of those households can afford to buy, and can get mortgages.

Currently while the former is going up, the latter is comming down - hence why prices are still falling, though slowly (and there are regional differences leading to price rises of certain property types in certain areas).

homelessskilledworker

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Sorry when you said "over 500,000 die each year in the UK, thats a lot of houses" I wondered whether you had considered that more people come to live in the UK each year than leave.

And you have the cheek to snigger at others. Are you not looking at the data, are you not looking at the facts... HOUSES ARE NOT SELLING.

This thread really is not about immigration either, but now you have raised the subject, the jobs are no longer out there for them as well as the fact that the UK population is on the verge of erupting if politicians dont do something about it.

Oh and the fact remains that over 500,000 are still dying each year, how many of those are leaving houses?

StevieJ

paulmapp8306 wrote: »

Im not saying there gong to crash - probably not, but I do feel there going to be static, then a small droop, then static, then a further small droop. This will continue until the economy is back on its feet, and wages v outgoings increase again.

Then again interest rates will remain very low until the country is back on its feet gain, so no desperation for current mortgage holders to ditch their property e.g. my rate is BR+.95 and many are on decent enough rates. The missing link is bank lending at 90-95% LTV (not just as a gimmick) it will come again in the not so distant future.

paulmapp8306

True - however I'm not convinced interest rates will remain low even if the country isn't back on its feet. Already there's pressure to raise it. I wouldn't be surprised to see rates around 3% in a couple of years. I'm also not convinced 90-90% LTVs will be back in any great numbers any time soon either. The world economy isn't up to it - the banks don't have the money and have had fingers burnt. I suspect 80-85% is the best that's going to be readily available for a long time.

StevieJ

paulmapp8306 wrote: »

True - however I'm not convinced interest rates will remain low even if the country isn't back on its feet. Already there's pressure to raise it. I wouldn't be surprised to see rates around 3% in a couple of years. I'm also not convinced 90-90% LTVs will be back in any great numbers any time soon either. The world economy isn't up to it - the banks don't have the money and have had fingers burnt. I suspect 80-85% is the best that's going to be readily available for a long time.

Just out of interest what were you predicting for interest rates back in 2006-7 over the next three to four years?

Rinoa

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Oh and the fact remains that over 500,000 are still dying each year, how many of those are leaving houses?

You're right, 500,000 certainly do die every year ~ have done for centuries.

I reckon the 60M+ population figure is a government con. With so many dying each year there must be millions of empty houses.

Hang on in there HSW, your time has come.

Pimperne1

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

And you have the cheek to snigger at others. Are you not looking at the data, are you not looking at the facts... HOUSES ARE NOT SELLING.

This thread really is not about immigration either, but now you have raised the subject, the jobs are no longer out there for them as well as the fact that the UK population is on the verge of erupting if politicians dont do something about it.

Oh and the fact remains that over 500,000 are still dying each year, how many of those are leaving houses?

Not too much of a cheek. I believe that the UK only has about 3% of properties empty and the percentage is falling. How come its not 3% and rising with all these people dying and immigration (according to you) falling?

I suppose that if 500k are dying each year and maybe 60% are homeowners then probably the majority of those are leaving their house either to their spouse or their children. As for the other 40% then they don't affect home ownership.

BigAunty

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

... HOUSES ARE NOT SELLING.

Property prices will only fall when there is a huge upsurge in properties coming onto the market and finding few buyers.

The market might be a bit flat at the moment in some areas but there is no flood of properties onto the market to cause massive supply with little demand.

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

...

Oh and the fact remains that over 500,000 are still dying each year, how many of those are leaving houses?

What percentage of these die alone with no family members that will either move into the property or who sell it to a buyer, itching to leave their parents home, a shared property or move in with a partner to form a completely new household.

I don't dispute that number of deaths but you've provided no counter figures for the formation of new households which more than absorb them.

homelessskilledworker

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Not too much of a cheek. I believe that the UK only has about 3% of properties empty and the percentage is falling. How come its not 3% and rising with all these people dying and immigration (according to you) falling?

I suppose that if 500k are dying each year and maybe 60% are homeowners then probably the majority of those are leaving their house either to their spouse or their children. As for the other 40% then they don't affect home ownership.

I will tell you exactly what I am saying...

There are a substantial amount of homeowners that are gritting their teeth and holding out. Some have already gone into negative equity, and some who are so much in debt need to hold on. Many are also wanting to move, upsize, downsize, off load BTL mistakes, many have been given a cushion when really they would have gone under by now... ALL are waiting and praying for better times that are just not going to arrive, at least not in the short or medium term. As the months pass and then turn to years more pressure will be applied to sell assets, and the reason I mention divorce and death is that they are the sales that really cannot be put off, fighting hard up siblings won't stand for it.

The growth we need is not going to come for a long time if ever, for our postion to balance out in the world property prices need to fall by a lot.

paulmapp8306

StevieJ wrote: »

Just out of interest what were you predicting for interest rates back in 2006-7 over the next three to four years?

Not quite sure why thats relevant. I dont think many say the global crash and teh need to lower rates. However, as there as low s they could be and with inflation rising, and considerbly higher than interewst rates already - its only a matter of time bofre the BOEs hand is forced regardless of the state of the economy.

I conceed if rates were at say 2%, then I couldnt predict if they would go up or down - though id still say up given the current issues - but as there at the lowest point the only was IS up.