Nationwide October: +0.4% MoM, +0.8% YoY

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Seems he's now had a change of heart, probably after realising how stupid it looked.

Luckily for you, he's reverted to highlighting yourself in his sig now!

I've actually no idea who nollag is. Have I even exchanged posts with the chappie. :rotfl:

Actually, I suspect your refering to Rinoa/Columbo.

As he's regularly had some reference to me in his sig for a number of years now, we shouldn't be surprised.

ILW

ruggedtoast wrote: »

We're supposed to be going forward not reverting to Dickensian Britain.

Get it out of your head that every decade is always better than to one before. There is no law that says it must be and it is only making you bitter.

ruggedtoast

ILW wrote: »

Get it out of your head that every decade is always better than to one before. There is no law that says it must be and it is only making you bitter.

As long as you're alright eh?

IveSeenTheLight

ruggedtoast wrote: »

We're supposed to be going forward not reverting to Dickensian Britain.

I do understand.
I'm simply showing that the recent generation of owner occupiers have benefited from the anomoly in historical house ownership levels.

As we go forward, our expectations seem to grow exonentially.

Rinoa

geneer wrote: »

Actually I also said edinburgh 3 bed semi detatched. Which you haven't elected to show.

For the date that I joined HPC to have any meaning one must assume that I decided to buy/not to buy at that point.
As you have used the same bench mark for 5 YEARS I can only assume this is your belief.

Naturally the data lags. This is not a matter for debate. It is a matter of fact. So using the Q2 data, which is of course more appropriate, and city centre properties have fallen about £10K.

Hey, thanks for clarifying the Harsh Realities Rinoa.


Care to check my maths for the 3 bed semis?

Oh, I see what you're doing, you've looked at all the data and chosen 3 bed semi's as your goal, as that's the one showing the least rise since you joined HPC :rotfl:

But it's still a rise ~ and you've still squandered 6 years rent.

Hey, why not try 4 bed flats, or 7 bed detached, you might just get lucky and find a property type that hasn't seen a rise.

BTW. The lag from joining HPC isn't relevant. After all, you claimed to be mid thirties 2 years ago so you must be pushing 40 now. Clearly you could have bought years before joining HPC.

ILW

ruggedtoast wrote: »

As long as you're alright eh?

Some are "luckier" than others. The ones that do well are the ones that work with the cards they are dealt. Always been the same. Suppose you could always hope for a world war or something.

Plenty of those born after 1964 have bought houses, just ask yourself why you are not one of them.

Graham_Devon

geneer wrote: »

I've actually no idea who nollag is. Have I even exchanged posts with the chappie. :rotfl:

Actually, I suspect your refering to Rinoa/Columbo.

As he's regularly had some reference to me in his sig for a number of years now, we shouldn't be surprised.

Ahh crap, so I am. They blur into one for me.

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

I do not dispute the data. I dispute your interpretation/characterisation of the data.

When movements have been volatile one must ponder the reasons for the volatility.

One cannot simply draw a line between two points, deliberately ignore everything else inbetween and come to the conclusion that prices have stagnated. They have in fact moved up and down with significant volatility.


You however choose to do so on a regular basis. But only when it suits you to do so.

I quite clearly explained that the methodology is subjected to noise as it does not mix adjust

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You do have to bear in mind that the ROSEA methodology does not mix adjust, meaning the individual monthly stats can be quite noisy.

Looking at the data over an extended period, it would largely point to stagnation in the last four years

When you look at four years of data and see that the volitile monthly noisy figures fluctate around that line, most people would accept that in general, prices have stagnated.

Of course there is the alternative viewpoint of yourself that there has been crashes when prices drop and the rises are "statistical skews"

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

Current monthly ROS figures do not contain breakdowns by property type. I clearly refered to property types. So it seems most unlikely that I would be the ROS figures. If, y'know, you were to think about it.

Your £45k drop was for 3 bed semi detached (no link to discuss)

Your £60k drop was not defined by property type, just Edinbusgh City Centre.

As you also referenced myself who has quoted, linked and used ROSEA figures, it's sensible to ask you to back up your figures, which you have classcally failed to do yet again.

geneer wrote: »

Of course as light has pointed out, another name for £60K to £45K drops from peak is "largely stagnation".
Right you are then.

wotsthat

geneer wrote: »

When movements have been volatile one must ponder the reasons for the volatility.

One cannot simply draw a line between two points, deliberately ignore everything else inbetween and come to the conclusion that prices have stagnated. They have in fact moved up and down with significant volatility.

Sometimes there are no easy explanations for volatility. Movement of points on a graph likely do so for multiple reasons. It also needs to be remembered that simple market noise will likely account for much of the volatility.

When trying to interpret graphical data trend lines can be a useful tool. If presented with this data and asked when the best time to buy was we'd all be surprised if someone said now was better than late 2005 especially if they had to pay rent in the meantime.