Nationwide October: +0.4% MoM, +0.8% YoY

joguest

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Oct_2011.pdf

Non-seasonally down 0.36% MoM:

(Haliwide NSA,, LR SA and shifted back a bit to account for lag)

Aberdeenangarse

Let Battle commence

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Ah well, there goes Brit1234's signature now that house prices are year on year positive.

Pimperne1

Don't like SA, don't like the size of the sample but always happy to see something that the bears won't like. How does this affect yesterday's assessment of renting over buying if the same were to happen over the next year?

joguest

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Don't like SA, don't like the size of the sample but always happy to see something that the bears won't like. How does this affect yesterday's assessment of renting over buying if the same were to happen over the next year?

Still the same as I said yesterday. If you're in London/southeast then renting hasn't paid off over the period of the last four years, but it has in the rest of the country. Of course, that could all change with a crash in the southeast. That's the interesting question - is the the southeast sustainable or a bubble?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Pimperne1 wrote: »

How does this affect yesterday's assessment of renting over buying if the same were to happen over the next year?

It wasn't financially beneficial to rent rather than buy yesterday, it's even less financially beneficial today.:)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

joguest wrote: »

. If you're in London/southeast then renting hasn't paid off over the period of the last four years, but it has in the rest of the country.

And I pulled you up on that fallacy yesterday. Although I note you didn't respond.

Only in the areas of the biggest falls, which are mostly in Northern England, has renting been a viable option.

For most of the country it has not.

homelessskilledworker

I hate to burst the bubble of most of you on here, but property prices have nearly fallen a grand over the last month.:)

But I don't suppose it is going to stop many of you putting on your fake joy, you know whats really coming,

The collapse of the property market is inevitable at some point, and I really get no pleasure from saying so, so many people will be hurt.

Today I will be keeping an eye on economic data being released along with the latest Greek bombshell. The clues are not all that hard to find boys.

Graham_Devon

The best index, obviously!

Not good.

Still, in monetry terms, they have actually fallen £600 as a result of this "rise". Good.

joguest

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And I pulled you up on that fallacy yesterday. Although I note you didn't respond.

Only in the areas of the biggest falls, which are mostly in Northern England, has renting been a viable option.

For most of the country it has not.

I didn't respond because your response was vacuous and based on no evidence whatsoever.

The figures discussed yesterday were an average for the whole of the country (although I'm not that familiar with the hometrack survey), meaning that probably around half of the country experienced a larger fall than 2.8% over the last year. The LR (average for england and wales) figures show a similar fall of 2.6% YoY.

The idea that it is just northern towns is absurd. There is a massive regional variation and it's very obvious - in London and the Southeast prices are just below/just above peak - the further you get away from London then, generally speaking, the further prices have fallen. They're down 50% in Northern Ireland. I wonder what's things are like in miserable, grey, cities on the east coast of upper-scotland?

Graham_Devon

Anyone notice that buyers chart thingymijig.

Only wealthy achievers and the comfortably off are buying houses. Or at least, are in positive teritory.

"Urban Prosperity", modereate means and hard pressed are all falling.

Never seen that before. I suppose it's pretty obvious. But this compares things to 2008, so it seems it's harder now than in 2008?