Nationwide October: +0.4% MoM, +0.8% YoY

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Still, in monetry terms, they have actually fallen £600 as a result of this "rise".

Not year on year they haven't.:rotfl:

And of course, NOW you want to emphasise the non seasonally adjusted figures, but you're delighted to pull people up for doing the same thing in spring or summer.;)

Rinoa

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Don't like SA, don't like the size of the sample but always happy to see something that the bears won't like. How does this affect yesterday's assessment of renting over buying if the same were to happen over the next year?

SA is necessary for those who don't understand the usual seasonal fluctuations.

Nationwide sample may be smaller than others, but LR results a couple of months later are almost identical.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not year on year they haven't.:rotfl:

And of course, NOW you want to emphasise the non seasonally adjusted figures, but you're delighted to pull people up for doing the same thing in spring or summer.;)

No no, I'll stick with the rise. Just rousing the rabble

tleefox

Someone who is clever but can't afford to buy their own home told me yesterday that house prices are going to fall 95% by Christmas, so it must be true?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

joguest wrote: »

I didn't respond because your response was vacuous and based on no evidence whatsoever.

Nonsense.

I quoted you two surveys which show on a local area basis, prices are only falling at all in around 35% of the UK. They are stable in around 55%, and rising in around 10%. (The numbers fluctuate very slightly every month, but this pattern has held true for quite some time now.)

Now taking a blunt national average, this will of course lead to slight falls, as the number of falling local areas is greater than the number of rising local areas.

But the majority of local areas are stable in price and have been so for quite some time.

The figures discussed yesterday were an average for the whole of the country (although I'm not that familiar with the hometrack survey), meaning that probably around half of the country experienced a larger fall than 2.8% over the last year. The LR (average for england and wales) figures show a similar fall of 2.6% YoY.

It doesn't work like that.

You can't claim half the country is falling at rate greater than -2.8% per annum, when we know 55% of areas are not falling at all. Perhaps at best you could say that -2.8% is the median of the areas that are changing in price. Not the median of all areas.

Although today you'd have to say that the median is +0.8%.;)

The idea that it is just northern towns is absurd. There is a massive regional variation and it's very obvious - in London and the Southeast prices are just below/just above peak - the further you get away from London then, generally speaking, the further prices have fallen.

Not at all.

You like to claim it's London skewing the averages, whereas in reality almost the only areas of the mainland UK showing any significant falls at all are in Northern England.

They're down 50% in Northern Ireland.

Yes they are.

Despite 0.5% rates since 2009.;)

I wonder what's things are like in miserable, gray, cities on the east coast of upper-scotland?

Currently the second best HPI in the country, behind only central London, and 9% higher than the same month in 2007.:beer:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Anyone notice that buyers chart thingymijig.

Only wealthy achievers and the comfortably off are buying houses. Or at least, are in positive teritory.

"Urban Prosperity", modereate means and hard pressed are all falling.

It's actually the first interesting thing I've seen in a Nationwide report in ages.

“Overall the pattern of transactions has been fairly stable,
but the data indicates that there had been an increase in the
proportion of sales occurring in more affluent areas and a
similar reduction in less affluent areas.

“In particular, the proportion of house purchases in areas
classified as ‘Wealthy Achievers’ has risen by three
percentage points since 2008. These areas tend to be
populated by those in managerial and professional
occupations, and often include larger homes in suburban
and rural locations.

“There has also been a small rise in the proportion of
transactions in areas categorised as ‘Comfortably Off’. These
areas personify middle Britain, with a range of life stages
represented.

“One exception to the trend is the slight fall in the proportion
of activity within areas of ‘Urban Prosperity’, typically
populated by well educated professionals living within major
towns and cities, which may reflect the subdued number of
first time buyers at present.

“At the other end of the spectrum, the proportion of
transactions accounted for by ‘Hard Pressed’ areas has fallen
by two percentage points since 2008. This is not surprising,
given the deterioration in economic conditions which is
likely to have hit these areas hardest. ‘Hard Pressed’ areas
are characterised by lower levels of educational attainment
and household incomes, and are often found within inner
cities and post industrial towns.”

joguest

@Hamish
I'm intrigued by the way you think the mix-adjustment works. Do you seriously believe they just ignore the areas where house prices are stagnant and derive a figure based on what they think should be happening? You really shouldn't judge other people by your own standards.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

joguest wrote: »

@Hamish
I'm intrigued by the way you think the mix-adjustment works. Do you seriously believe they just ignore the areas where house prices are stagnant and derive a figure based on what they think should be happening? You really shouldn't judge other people by your own standards.

I'm intrigued you think prices are falling in over half the country, when I've shown you they are stable in at least 55% of the country.

Any comment?

julieq

And it's as predicted. As the shortfall between supply and demand increases, the better off are able to buy and those who are less comfortable can't. The overall proportion of owner occupation reduces, there is upwards pressure on prices, and rents increase.

Solution? Build more houses and allow people the finance to buy them.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

And it's as predicted. As the shortfall between supply and demand increases, the better off are able to buy and those who are less comfortable can't. The overall proportion of owner occupation reduces, there is upwards pressure on prices, and rents increase.

Solution? Build more houses and allow people the finance to buy them.

As predicted!?!?! ROFL.

It's plain common sense that wealthy people will be able to buy easier than those not so wealthy.

Blimey...you really going to take credit for stating that?

I predict it will always be the same. People with more money will be able to buy more things.

I will remind you I predicted that every month from here on in!