House price cuts helped sales surge by nearly 10pc last month

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

joguest wrote: »

How is supply falling exactly?

"Supply to the housing market fell last month, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said. Five per cent more surveyors reported that supply of property fell rather than rose, in September".

In 2008 supply did not change (appreciably).

The listings on Rightmove dropped from well over a million in 2007 to just 600,000 by early 2009.

Supply fell off a cliff as both demand and prices fell throughout 2008.

When supply fell below the level needed for equilibrium, prices rose again, starting in Mar 2009.

Really2

joguest wrote: »

How is supply falling exactly? I

By the fact there are falling numbers of property coming on the market?

Also increasing sales as you have just pointed out.

You can have decreasing supply and increased demand, seems like everyone forgets what that looks like.



And I was accused of not understanding supply and demand the other day.

joguest

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

"Supply to the housing market fell last month, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said. Five per cent more surveyors reported that supply of property fell rather than rose, in September".



The listings on Rightmove dropped from well over a million in 2007 to just 600,000 by early 2009.

Supply fell off a cliff as both demand and prices fell throughout 2008.

When supply fell below the level needed for equilibrium, prices rose again, starting in Mar 2009.

Do you lot ever think about what you're saying or bother to go and find out what supply and demand actually are.

Here's a link to wikipedia's page on supply and demand:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand

They have a nice illustration of an increase in demand in the top right hand corner, showing that prices and volumes increase as a result. This really isn't difficult stuff you know.

joguest

Really2 wrote: »

By the fact there are falling numbers of property coming on the market?

Also increasing sales as you have just pointed out.

You can have decreasing supply and increased demand, seems like everyone forgets what that looks like.



And I was accused of not understanding supply and demand the other day.

That plot shows prices going up as a result of a decrease in supply, i.e. higher prices, lower volumes. It also shows that demand hasn't changed, i.e. the demand curve has stayed in the same place. I've never seen a finer example of someone demonstrating that they don't know what they're talking about. You've confused quantity with demand.

Prices are currently going down with volumes going up, i.e. an increase in supply.

Really2

joguest wrote: »

I don't care who it looks good for, but higher volumes with lower prices = increased supply.

Higher volumes is a leading indicator price is lagging in terms of data we see (LR is based on sold prices)

So how do you know the increase in sales and falling supply don't transpire to higher prices or static prices?

Really2

joguest wrote: »

Prices are currently going down with volumes going up, i.e. an increase in supply.

Volumes have gone up, supply has gone down, do you have LR prices for September and the future?

You are using average sales prices from the start of the year as an assumption prices are falling. How about data that relates to the figures, most of which has not been released yet.


You cant argue supply is not falling as we have factual evidence it is!!!!

joguest

Really2 wrote: »

Volumes have gone up, supply has gone down, do you have LR prices for September and the future?

You are using average sales prices from the start of the year as an assumption prices are falling. How about data that relates to the figures, most of which has not been released yet.


You cant argue supply is not falling as we have factual evidence it is!!!!

You've provided factual evidence that you don't know what supply (or demand) is.

Really2

joguest wrote: »

You've provided factual evidence that you don't know what supply (or demand) is.

I should imagine supply and demand is harder to understand if you can't read?

Supply to the housing market fell last month, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said. Five per cent more surveyors reported that supply of property fell rather than rose, in September.

How can you say supply is increasing??

You are using an average fall of prices over the year and increasing transactions to get to supply is increasing.

You don't need to work out the supply aspect, you have it documented that supply is falling.

So stop trying to shoehorn in supply is increasing in to the equation as it is factually incorrect.

How about coming out with some answers with supply decreasing and demand increasing as we have evidence for both of those.;)

joguest

"You are using an average fall of prices over the year and increasing transactions to get to supply is increasing."

Pardon me for using the definition and the evidence.

"How about coming out with some answers with supply and demand increasing as we have evidence for both of those."

It's perfectly possible for both curves to be moving at the same time, but when prices are falling and volumes are increasing then it is the increase in supply that is dominating.

Really2

joguest wrote: »

Pardon me for using the definition and the evidence.

Saying prices over the year are falling and demand is increasing is not factual evidence, it is a presumption as that is "how" it should look.

The evidence of supply is the actual factual data on supply, as stated before you don't need to conclude what supply is doing as we know.
It is no good saying 3+3=6, we know it is, but when the answer to the question is 8, you need to look at working out the question again.

joguest wrote: »

It's perfectly possible for both curves to be moving at the same time, but when prices are falling and volumes are increasing then it is the increase in supply that is dominating.

What data have you got to show the increase in demand and lowering of supply has lead to falling prices?

Surely that data is not out yet?