UK managers expect double-dip recession

wotsthat

RenovationMan wrote: »

This is an interesting snippet from Graham's link:

Also interesting is how this debt charity has changed the way it reports its statistics - they stop showing what the figures equate to in cash once borrowing dropping. I guess it doesn't fit their VI?

I don't know why GD didn't just link to the data itself.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/li/2011/aug/

Maybe they needed to go through Credit Action's gloom filter first.

As you suggested the rate of increase of debt is slowing dramatically.

Really2

Manufacturing PMI up to 51.1
Services PMI up to 52.9

Business investment up 11.6% Q/Q
3.8% Higher YoY

Some good positives coming out of the negatives this week.;)

nearlynew

"double-dip recession" suggest that there was a recovery after the initial recession.

which renders whatever they are saying as meaningless.

wotsthat

Is there an 'official' time period after which it's not a double dip recession but a separate one?

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

Still wrong though

September 2010 - £1,456bn
September 2011 - £1,451bn

That's £5bn of debt repaid. 0.34% of September 2010's figure.

Maybe I'm being picky - what's £777,600,000 between friends?

Wow, you do try really hard with this onemanupmanship competition you appear to be having with yourself.

It's not wrong at all. As all we have is 1,451bn, and no further information.

If I'd stated it was 0.34%, you could have come just as easily come back and claimed I was wrong, and that it's actually 0.33%, or 0.31%.

0.29-0.35%.

Will that do, or do you take issue with that too?

Thrugelmir

julieq wrote: »

None of that means that there'll be any significant effect on house prices here incidentally. There has been no strong negative effect throughout this current turmoil, because the supply/demand imbalance is very well embedded now. Most people here are still in work, most couples can comfortably afford mortgage repayments against interest rates set to remain low for some considerable time, and many will be at the point of having save deposits.

However banks still need to renew funding lines. While money is lent long term , banks rely on short term deposits. The real issues that may well effect house prices in the medium term are very much in play.

nearlynew

wotsthat wrote: »

Is there an 'official' time period after which it's not a double dip recession but a separate one?

You don't need "official" figures or definitions to tell you this stuff.
It is all spin and bullsh1t anyway.

Just use your own eyes and brain.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Oh !!!!!! Graham, I was talking about a slow down and discussing a double dip towards the end of last year

No you werent.

julieq wrote: »

I'm still of the belief that there won't be a second recession, but it'll be a close run thing and a few nervous months ahead.

Was said 2 months ago. Was nothing to do with the end of last year.

Really2

wotsthat wrote: »

Is there an 'official' time period after which it's not a double dip recession but a separate one?

In reality a double dip recession is not an iron on I think may are thinking we will dip back in to negative GDP though, will it be for two consecutive quarters? who knows?

As for a double dip period, I presume it relates to without really having a recovery in-between.

Had we pulled out of recession strongly in the last 2 years I would say it would be a new one, but we never.

worldtraveller

worldtraveller wrote: »

The 'straw that broke the camels back' in recent history was largely 9/11, after which most of the main U.S. carriers filed for Chapter 11. AA & Continental where the only one's, I believe, that didn't file around that time.

It's been announced that American Airlines parent, AMR Corp., will file for bankruptcy today.