UK managers expect double-dip recession

Thrugelmir

RenovationMan wrote: »

the longer the UK populace has to pay down its debts. There is a real possibility that the UK will exit this period of economic difficulty in better shape than when we entered it.

Tackling the UK consumers "love" of borrowing money will take some years to unwind. My hope is that people do take this opportunity to accelerate repayment of debt. As longer term the cost of debt will rise irrespective of the BOE's actions.

Thrugelmir

70fishday wrote: »

Just came to know that American Airlines is filing for bankruptcy.

Again............

Only a few years back if I recall, they were saved.

RenovationMan

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Tackling the UK consumers "love" of borrowing money will take some years to unwind. My hope is that people do take this opportunity to accelerate repayment of debt. As longer term the cost of debt will rise irrespective of the BOE's actions.

The debt repayment figures seem to be bearing out your hope, with a lot of debt being paid down. I think we will have low rates for a further 5 years and within that time a lot of people will be much better off financially. I know that I am personally gaining considerably from the credit crunch and I can't imagine I am the only one.

julieq

kabayiri wrote: »

This may sound harsh but as businesses fail in the weaker Eurozone countries, this presents potential opportunity for some of our companies to step in.

The issue is that when our main market is weak we're going to have difficulty selling to it. It's actually the effect of the turmoil on Germany, France and Italy which is key here, not Greece. Greece is the weight dragging the other economies down but not a big deal in itself.

And obviously any Greek or Eurozone company seeing an external opportunity can take it just as easily as a British one, the issue is the effect it sees on its local sales and whether that weakens it to the point it can't risk the investment needed to play externally. The other effect of cornering rats is they tend to fight harder, which in practical terms means a general long term loss of margin for everyone as price competition is the cheapest means of hitting revenue targets.

I think there is going to be another recession for what it's worth. The political dithering in the Eurozone isn't going to improve, and the German public aren't going to tolerate the Greeks missing austerity targets for long. Arguably we'd be better off pitching in to help the eurozone, but that in itself is politically impossible. This isn't really a banking crisis, it's a political crisis now more than anything else.

And oddly enough, the roots of that are in the idea that the banks are uniquely culpable, which has led to a general belief that public sector austerity is not necessary and the banks should be punished, and that you can somehow cripple the banks and still get the sort of growth level that provides the money for public spending. This means that voters do not or will not understand that everyone is going to take a bit of the pain in regularising the economy, and if we're to accept lower growth in return for more stability, then public spending must inevitably contract and reduce.

We are all Greeks really. Arguing against the wider interest on self interest.

shortchanged_2

julieq wrote: »

The issue is that when our main market is weak we're going to have difficulty selling to it. It's actually the effect of the turmoil on Germany, France and Italy which is key here, not Greece. Greece is the weight dragging the other economies down but not a big deal in itself.

And obviously any Greek or Eurozone company seeing an external opportunity can take it just as easily as a British one, the issue is the effect it sees on its local sales and whether that weakens it to the point it can't risk the investment needed to play externally. The other effect of cornering rats is they tend to fight harder, which in practical terms means a general long term loss of margin for everyone as price competition is the cheapest means of hitting revenue targets.

I think there is going to be another recession for what it's worth. The political dithering in the Eurozone isn't going to improve, and the German public aren't going to tolerate the Greeks missing austerity targets for long. Arguably we'd be better off pitching in to help the eurozone, but that in itself is politically impossible. This isn't really a banking crisis, it's a political crisis now more than anything else.

And oddly enough, the roots of that are in the idea that the banks are uniquely culpable, which has led to a general belief that public sector austerity is not necessary and the banks should be punished, and that you can somehow cripple the banks and still get the sort of growth level that provides the money for public spending. This means that voters do not or will not understand that everyone is going to take a bit of the pain in regularising the economy, and if we're to accept lower growth in return for more stability, then public spending must inevitably contract and reduce.

We are all Greeks really. Arguing against the wider interest on self interest.

Julieq, you need to change your user name to IveSeenTheLight.

Oh damn, that user name has already been used.

itsallagame_2

Double dip coming?

perhaps sooner than we think

October 3rd 2008 and October 3rd 2010 both had S&P500 at 1099 and VIX at 45.

On October 10th 2008, the S&P closed at 822 and VIX at 69

time will tell if a coincidence !

Graham_Devon

RenovationMan wrote: »

The debt repayment figures seem to be bearing out your hope, with a lot of debt being paid down. I think we will have low rates for a further 5 years and within that time a lot of people will be much better off financially. I know that I am personally gaining considerably from the credit crunch and I can't imagine I am the only one.

In a year, personal debt has been reduced by 0.29%.

September 2010 - £1,456bn
September 2011 - £1,451bn

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

I think there is going to be another recession for what it's worth.

Well it's good to see you have finally realised the obvious now that everything is tanking and in the red.

It was only 2 months back that you were suggesting you didn't think there would be a 2nd recession.

DervProf

Graham_Devon wrote: »

In a year, personal debt has been reduced by 0.99%.

September 2010 - £1,456bn
September 2011 - £1,451bn

Considering that mortgage holders are supposed to be benefiting from low interest rates, and new mortgage lending isn't exactly buoyant, a less than 1% reduction in personal debt (if that is the figure you are quoting) is suprising. Maybe people are increasing their borrowing "on the quiet", or maybe it;'s down to the number of IO mortgages in use.

Conrad

julieq wrote: »

I think there is going to be another recession for what it's worth.

I see the UK making a rapid and profound recovery. So many elements are falling into place such as;

+ More business freindly enviroment developing
+ Very low interest rates

+ New industrial revolution being born. Bio technology is about to change everything, organs grown to order is but one of thousands of new realities

+ Much of the world is growing rapidly - there's more to lifge than a few struggling Olive economies


I have a prediction thread in DT where I claim we'll be booming by March 2013.

Remember when making predictions, the very worse way to proceed is to extrapolate a linear trend line from current events - this method nearly always fails