UK managers expect double-dip recession

Graham_Devon

DervProf wrote: »

Considering that mortgage holders are supposed to be benefiting from low interest rates, and new mortgage lending isn't exactly buoyant, a less than 1% reduction in personal debt (if that is the figure you are quoting) is suprising. Maybe people are increasing their borrowing "on the quiet", or maybe it;'s down to the number of IO mortgages in use.

Was a typo in there, was supposed to say 0.29%

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Was a typo in there, was supposed to say 0.29%

Still wrong though

September 2010 - £1,456bn
September 2011 - £1,451bn

That's £5bn of debt repaid. 0.34% of September 2010's figure.

Maybe I'm being picky - what's £777,600,000 between friends?

Hoopie1

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Again............

Only a few years back if I recall, they were saved.

Indeed, AA are in and out of Chapter 11 more often than Russell Brand is in and out of Katy Perry.

worldtraveller

Hoopie1 wrote: »

Indeed, AA are in and out of Chapter 11 more often than Russell Brand is in and out of Katy Perry.

Really? I thought that AMR (AA's parent co.) was one of the very few U.S. airline companies that hadn't filed for Chapter 11, although they could well have benefited from it, as their competitors have done.

RenovationMan

wotsthat wrote: »

Still wrong though

September 2010 - £1,456bn
September 2011 - £1,451bn

That's £5bn of debt repaid. 0.34% of September 2010's figure.

Maybe I'm being picky - what's £777,600,000 between friends?

It would be useful if Graham had given a link with his figures because perhaps we could look at the debt figures for previous years, especially pre-credit crunch and get a better overview of the swing in debt repayments.

A drop in debt from £1.456Bn to £1.451Bn might not impressive to some, but a 5bn drop in a year would look impressive when compared against a £30bn debt increase in a year. i.e. a swing of £35bn from the spendthrift days, pre-credit crunch to now.

It's not feasible to expect billions of pounds worth of debt to be repaid in a couple of years, so most sensible people wouldn't expect to see this. However it is feasible to see a drop in the increase of debt, which I suspect is what we have seen post-credit crunch.

However without the figures, it's hard to tell.

p.s. as some on here like to compare national finances against their personal finances, this is akin to an individual who is spending £10k per year more than his income, suddenly reigning it in and having a £2k surplus per year. A swing of £12k in his finances in a year, which would be an impressive achievement and would set that person on the road to financial recovery.

Hoopie1

worldtraveller wrote: »

Really? I thought that AMR (AA's parent co.) was one of the very few U.S. airline companies that hadn't filed for Chapter 11, although they could well have benefited from it, as their competitors have done.

You're probably right - there is one of the big US airlines that seems to go in to C11 once every few years. I think TWA in C11 when they merged with AA?

worldtraveller

Hoopie1 wrote: »

You're probably right - there is one of the big US airlines that seems to go in to C11 once every few years. I think TWA in C11 when they merged with AA?

The 'straw that broke the camels back' in recent history was largely 9/11, after which most of the main U.S. carriers filed for Chapter 11. AA & Continental where the only one's, I believe, that didn't file around that time.

Graham_Devon

RenovationMan wrote: »

It would be useful if Graham had given a link with his figures because perhaps we could look at the debt figures for previous years, especially pre-credit crunch and get a better overview of the swing in debt repayments.

A drop in debt from £1.456Bn to £1.451Bn might not impressive to some, but a 5bn drop in a year would look impressive when compared against a £30bn debt increase in a year. i.e. a swing of £35bn from the spendthrift days, pre-credit crunch to now.

It's not feasible to expect billions of pounds worth of debt to be repaid in a couple of years, so most sensible people wouldn't expect to see this. However it is feasible to see a drop in the increase of debt, which I suspect is what we have seen post-credit crunch.

However without the figures, it's hard to tell.

p.s. as some on here like to compare national finances against their personal finances, this is akin to an individual who is spending £10k per year more than his income, suddenly reigning it in and having a £2k surplus per year. A swing of £12k in his finances in a year, which would be an impressive achievement and would set that person on the road to financial recovery.

Knock yourself out..

http://www.creditaction.org.uk/helpful-resources/debt-statistics.html

RenovationMan

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Knock yourself out..

http://www.creditaction.org.uk/helpful-resources/debt-statistics.html

Thanks GD.

This is an interesting snippet from Graham's link:

"Total lending in August 2011 rose by £1.0bn; secured lending increased by £0.6bn in the month; consumer credit lending increased by £0.5bn(total lending in Jan 2008 grew by £8.4bn)."

£1bn increase in lending in Aug 2011 compared with total lending in Jan 2008 of £8.4bn. An eight fold reduction in lending.

Further study revealed:

"At the end of June 2006 the total UK personal debt was £1,228bn. The growth rate remains strong at 10.3% for the previous 12 months which equates to an increase of £100bn."

"Total UK personal debt at the end of June 2007 stood at £1,345bn. The growth rate increased to 10.2% for the previous 12 months which equates to an increase of £107bn."

"Total UK personal debt at the end of June 2008 stood at £1,444bn. The growth rate increased to 7.4% for the previous 12 months which equates to an increase of ~ £98bn."

"Total UK personal debt at the end of June 2009 stood at £1,458bn. This has slowed further to 1.2% in the last 12 months which equates to an increase of ~ £14.35bn "

"Total UK personal debt at the end of June 2010 stood at £1,457bn. The twelve-month growth remained at 0.8%."

"Total UK personal debt at the end of June 2011 stood at £1,451bn. The twelve-month growth rate remained unchanged at 0.8%."

This shows that growth of debt in June 2006 was 10%, growth in debt in June 2007 was 10.2% falling a huge amount to a static 0.8% in June 2010 and June 2011.

As I suggested, it's naive to think that billions of £'s of debt can be wiped out overnight, but the swing from a 10% increase in borrowing to a static 0.8% increase in borrowing is startling.

Also interesting is how this debt charity has changed the way it reports its statistics - they stop showing what the figures equate to in cash once borrowing dropping. I guess it doesn't fit their VI?

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well it's good to see you have finally realised the obvious now that everything is tanking and in the red.

It was only 2 months back that you were suggesting you didn't think there would be a 2nd recession.

Oh !!!!!! Graham, I was talking about a slow down and discussing a double dip towards the end of last year and saying on balance it looks like we'd avoid it. I did incidentally also point out that the stock market looked overcooked at the level it had reached, which as I recall was about the same time you started your great day trading adventure. Meanwhile you were doing what you're doing now, which is blathering meaningless hyperbole and expecting the sky to fall on your head.

The difference between me and you, frankly, is that I am one of these managers from the survey who is looking at actual real data and interpreting outcomes, and I actually have some idea what I am talking about.

Situations change, and the big change here is the lack of political will in the Eurozone to do what is frankly inevitable ultimately which is to take Europe wide responsibility for government borrowing - it would help the process if the UK joined in to be quite honest. The wild card is the attitude of the Germans to taking on Greek debt, and the Greeks to hit some targets for raising tax (the true problem there) and reducing spending. Globally the posturing of the US Right has had a serious impact on general confidence. These are essentially new - or at least increasing - factors in the equation.

None of that means that there'll be any significant effect on house prices here incidentally. There has been no strong negative effect throughout this current turmoil, because the supply/demand imbalance is very well embedded now. Most people here are still in work, most couples can comfortably afford mortgage repayments against interest rates set to remain low for some considerable time, and many will be at the point of having save deposits.

This is ultimately really why I don't bother posting here much. The quality of argument on substantive questions is pathetic, and given that those pointing out the speck in the eye of one side of the arguments have entire saw mills worth of sawdust in their own, and get things wrong on a heroic and systematic basis, it's really not worth the hassle.

I don't actually think you're arguing with my conclusions anyway, it's just that now they align with your stopped clock view of the world you have some sort of delusional fantasy that that made you right all along.