More bad news for house prices

geneer

robmatic wrote: »

I think the vast majority of posters on here seem to be expecting prices to fall in the short term. Which makes the whole bull vs bear thing even more ridiculous.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Ah yes. The "non bull" phenomenon.
Theres absolutely no chance that that is just another in a line of ever more elaborate (and laughably transparent) fall back positions.

robmatic

geneer wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Ah yes. The "non bull" phenomenon.
Theres absolutely no chance that that is just another in a line of ever more elaborate (and laughably transparent) fall back positions.

What on earth are you gibbering on about? In my case I delayed purchase until 2010 instead of buying in 2007/2008. I think that in the short term house prices will fall and I'm certainly not expecting rampant HPI after that. Is that too bullish for you?

ukcarper

Flight2quality wrote: »

So obvious I have no idea what you are talking about. Sorry maybe it's just me. But you are saying the bear market is now over for houses and the next cycle and bull market has started? I think you will find you are in the minority there caper.

There will be a time when houses are at bottom and the next bull market has started but we are no where near this time yet.

I’m not sure how you reached that conclusion from my post so I will explain what I meant.

Only a couple of posters are saying house prices are increasing or going to increase in the near future and they may or may not be the same person.

As for me I haven’t a clue what’s going to happen but my guess would be stagnation or small falls although I wouldnt be surprised if the fall were quite large in some areas

Cleaver

Samson_brings_props_down wrote: »

Don't tell Hamish he still thinks the end of the bear market is over and another bull market has started already.

From what I can remember Hamish posted recently that he sees the average house costing £185k in 2015. The average is currently around £165k so that's a rise of 12% over three or four years, so around 3% a year. That's bullish in that he sees them going up, but it's not exactly predicting some uber-bull run market is it?

I disagree with him and if I had to bet I'd say that a 12% decrease over the same period would be more likely. But I don't have much confidence in that prediction as I haven't been great at predicting the market in the past.

Cleaver

geneer wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Ah yes. The "non bull" phenomenon.
Theres absolutely no chance that that is just another in a line of ever more elaborate (and laughably transparent) fall back positions.

I completely agree. The bull raison d'etre in recent months has been the spurious and oh-so predictable fall back to stagnation position that we've all seen throughout the 07 to 09 bear and bull cognation. This would be laughable if it wasn't the complete opposite of the bull rationale around countrproductve bullish 'memes' that we saw them attack the bears with a few years back with no chance of agreement.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Cleaver

Travelman45 wrote: »

So is it possible to find out the truth about about how much silver is left available on Earth?
youtube.com/watch?v=KViFXvOr-TM

Why are you asking a question of a post you wrote yourself using another username?! You're essentially asking yourself a question and it's really, really odd behaviour. Obviously it's not the oddest behaviour on here, but it's close.

Does anyone else feel this place is becoming more and more insane? Like, pretty much certifiable? I'm sure it wasn't like this a couple of years ago.

King_Of_Bling

Cleaver wrote: »

Why are you asking a question of a post you wrote yourself using another username?! You're essentially asking yourself a question and it's really, really odd behaviour.

What a loon, didn't even edit the first post for brevity...just to get his silly silver ramping point across.

monetaryPMbull

lvader wrote: »

I'm more bullish about Gold and Platunum than Silver, there is a lot of scope to increase silver production but the same isn't true about the other 2. All the big Silver miners have large exploration projects in advanced stages and there are quite a few juniors with large reserves ready to be dug up. Yes starting up new mines takes time but in the meantime we already have a big production surplus.

The only thing that could make silver take off isn't industrial demand but PI speculation, the silver market is relatively small and if you have enough people taking product off the market then prices are going to go up. I don't underestimate the Internets power to ramp an investment so that has to be taken into account. What Silver really needs is a catalyst, depression won't do it, the break up of the Euro won't do it, what you need is prolonged high inflation in the US, so far inflation has remained low.

So the question is this, with growth projected to be low or negative for years to come, what is going to cause high inflation in the US when mass QE didn't do it and higher growth didn't either? I do expect some devaluation of the USD as investors look to exit government bond positions but I expect it to be 10-20% rather than something extreme.


Apart from a possible short term spike I predict Silver prices to remain below $150 by 2020.

In the US and Canada investment demand alone is now more than production. This does not even account for industrial demand, where will the silver come from, all the worlds stockpiles have now been depleted?


moneybagsworld.blogspot.com


The Myth Behind the So-called Silver Surplus
The investing public has been led to believe that the world is now producing a surplus of silver. This so-called surplus was provided by information put forth by GFMS. According to GFMS and its World Silver Surveys, there has been an annual global deficit of silver since 2003. In 2004 the world hit its first small surplus and has continued to grow. In 2010, the surplus was 175.4 million ounces.
To get its annual supply-deficit figure, GFMS uses a certain equation:
(Mine Production + Silver Scrap) – (Fabrication - Coin & Medal) = Surplus- Deficit
If we plug in 2010’s figures this is the result:
(735.9 + 215) = 950.9 – (878.8 - 101.3) = 775.5 = +175.4
GFMS has decided that coin and medal demand should not be included in the Fabrication total but rather as a form of bullion supply. So the higher the coin and medal demand, the more it adds to the so-called silver surplus. The majority of this category of “Coin & Medal” consists of official government coins that are in high demand and are not of the type that would be sold for melt and recycled back into scrap supply.

JonnyBravo

monetaryPMbull wrote: »

In the US and Canada investment demand alone is now more than production. This does not even account for industrial demand, where will the silver come from, all the worlds stockpiles have now been depleted?

And yet, magically, somehow there is enough silver. Strange eh?