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More bad news for house prices
Comments
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You need to look at the full demand and supply figures, which although ultimately are a zero sum you end up with an implied net investment which is essentially the production surplus. This surplus has increased massively over the last couple of years to 178 million ounces in 2010. I would be very surprised if industrial demand which has been flat since 2005 increased that much in 2011, at the same time production from mining has increased around 15% over the same period.
Have you got a link for the full supply/demand figures?
What you are talking about is how much investment demand has risen considerably. You call this a production surplus? I have been part of that investment demand and the silver I have taken off the market can not be called production surplus.
Surely the only surplus is what the governments and banks are adding to their stockpiles along with gold that they have recently started buying again?
Private investors like Eric Sprott are buying to take off the market and his holdings can not be classed as market surplus because he will not sell until much higher prices.0 -
http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply_demand.php#demand
Note that coins are not included in the net implied investment figure, a lot of small PIs prefer coins.0 -
http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply_demand.php#demand
Note that coins are not included in the net implied investment figure, a lot of small PIs prefer coins.
All the stats that are posted about how much is mined, how much is available above ground, yad yada, yada? But one of the things that may break this manipulation wide open, is the fact that when the industrial users simply don't have enough to even remotely supply all the gadgets, and they all scream for silver at one time, then, the world will take notice, and the silver scam might be over.
Some of you are aware one of my first jobs in the 60's was an electronics research engineer. One of my assignments was testing metals. For instance what would a metal do when smashed into concrete at 15,000 MPH after an 8,000 mile ride at 150,000 feet elevation (a nuclear bomb atop an ICBM). Much of the findings were designated Top Secret and some still are although I don't know why since the information is 95% common knowledge. Still, silver sometimes defied the laws of physics. I called it the "mystery metal".
One very top secret bit of information was how much silver remained in the world (no longer classified but it again is no longer published and available to the public!). Is this sudden secrecy a sign of something?
There is an excellent daily e-mail newsletter issued by https://www.milesfranklin.com. They are a gold and silver dealer. But the newsletter is world class and covers far more than precious metals. Several months ago they hired a gold and silver expert (they are all experts) as Marketing Manager.
He calls his section of the newsletter his rant. He's known as "Ranting Andy"!
The word is starting to leak out that only a few years (three to ten years) of industrial quantity silver still exists in the world. When it is gone - it is gone! Silver is a VITAL metal in high-technology.
Andy wrote about it and added hyperlinks to two other articles. I responded to Andy (as I often do). Here is my response. If you are involved with silver I hope you pick up some new information. Some of it has been classified until recently. IMO - the most difficult part of silver ownership will be holding onto it during the nect few years! Comments and questions are welcome.
The last few paragraphs have to do with China. Not connected with silver but still very important.
**************************************************
Hi Andy!
Your "rant" of today was your best ever! FINALLY someone put it in print the truth about silver.
THE WORLD IS RUNNING OUT OF SILVER!
http://maxkeiser.com/2011/04/08/silver-will-be-the-first-element-in-the-periodic-table-to-become-extinct-shooting-price-per-oz-past-gold/
http://goldsilver.com/news/the-world-will-run-out-of-silver-in-nine-years/
I'm an expert in very little (actually almost nothing) but I think I am in silver. One of my first jobs was as a research electronics engineer testing what happens to metals when it hits concrete at 15,000 MPH. It was Top Secret work for the Atomic Energy Commission. This was emulating a nuclear bomb hitting concrete after an 8,000 mile journey. I was baffled by silver. In some ways it defied the laws of physics! I called it the "mystery metal". I was privy to information that wasn't declassified until the 90's and I think some of it is still classified. The amount of silver above and below ground and the world's annual usage was one of the most closely guarded secrets. I always wondered why. Well, we now all know why! China began to stockpile silver (and is still at it). Bill Clinton in a very foolish move to balance the budget in his first term sold ALL of our 2.5 billion ounces of silver for under $4 an ounce. As an aside Gordon Brown of England a few years later sold much of their gold for $300 an ounce. Our huge stockpile of silver was gone!
By the mid-80's I had built several successful companies and had money to invest. When it became legal to own silver and the American Silver Eagle was begun I bought some EVERY year. Including during all of the no growth years of the 90's. As an electronics engineer I knew of all of the new inventions being developed that would require huge amounts of silver. And, because of my days with the AEC, I knew most of the world's silver was gone forever! Silver is used in minute amounts 98% of the time meaning to reclaim it would cost thousands of dollars an ounce. In contrast 98%+ of gold is reclaimed. I knew computers used huge amounts of silver and I read of all of the other inventions also requiring silver. Where copper could replace silver it was already done. The ONLY places silver is used today is where it MUST be silver and the device doesn't work adequately without silver.
Nine years is probably sooner than that. Why? When industry learns silver is REALLY going to go extinct there will be hoarding as never before. If you run Intel or Apple or any of the other 10,000 companies whose products depend on silver are you going to close your business because silver is unavailable? Actually, some will. $50 radio controlled toy cars and $25 throw away cell phones will be a thing of the past. Will Apple stop making iPads and computers? Eventually, yes, as hard as that is to believe. Intel won't be able to make integrated circuits that have speeds equal to those of 1980! Silver is the #2 most used commodity in the world (not quantity but applications) behind oil. The official industry source that was publishing the amount of silver above and below ground STOPPED publishing this number last month and now say it is "classified". A sign we are drawing near? I think so.
There are inventions coming of which each industry thinks they are the ONLY new user of silver. WRONG! Silver usage is growing 30% a year. It is soon to increase much faster. Several examples. Clothing manufacturers have discovered a fog type spray blended into cloth used for athletic wear (sweat shirts, climbing clothes, hunting, sports, etc.) wick away human sweat keeping the person much cooler. The "secret" ingredient of the spray? Silver! Go into any sporting goods stores today and ask to see the new anti-sweat wicking clothing goods. EVERY store has them. They LOVE to sell them as they keep it a secret the fog the cloth spend a few hours in costs about 10 cents per garmet but they charge 30 to100% more. They are selling like crazy because it works!
Here are some more (yet to come in quantity). IF the new all electric cars are ever sold in quantity (I wonder as they are catching on fire!) they require a SPECIAL battery and that battery requires a minute amount of silver. Your regular lead acid battery is WAY too heavy if you want to go more than five miles and other batteries are not much better. Even this special EXPENSIVE battery has a range of 100 miles and takes hours to charge. Ten million of these electric cars with the silver using batteries equals twice the annual amount of silver mined world wide!
I go on. Roof mounted electric solar panels each require a small amount of silver. IT MUST BE SILVER - PERIOD! To put panels on the roofs of 100 millions average sized homes would require THREE times the annual amount of silver mined world wide.
Whew! I have a list of dozens more and I subscribe to industrial journals listing both inventions being worked on and patents being applied for (all that use silver). Add them ALL up and the amount is more than all of the usable silver that exists in the world times three! That does not include the 95% of the silver mankind has used up over the last 5000 years. It's all silver dust at the bottom of trash dumps. Silver is not magnetic so there is no way to easily find it. And silver is almost always in such minute amounts (think of the inside of an Intel integrated circuit) one IC may contain, say, .005 ounces of silver. To retrieve that silver using any method currently known to man is either impossible or would cost thousands of dollars. To retrieve a full ounce might cost $50,000!
During the coming months those in finance will do all they can to create wild swings in price hoping to scare holders of physical silver into selling out in disgust and going back to paper fiat currency. We're not talking decades. I think we're talking just a few years. Industrial users who buy in quantity have reported mint marks of when the silver bar was poured to be AFTER the day they ordered the silver. Lead times are stretching out. They will soon REALLY stretch out. Why is Eric Sprott buying a HUGE addition to his silver hoard? Because he is a very smart man who KNOWS silver!
The most difficult obstacle ahead will be governments who will be pressured to make the ownership of physical silver illegal. Government will be ready with (worthless) paper silver certificates! Difficult times are ahead!
After industrial quantity of silver is used up and then scrap silver is melted down and used the amount held by investors will keep industry supplied with silver for another year. It doesn't matter if it is stolen or purchased from investors.
As the old say goes (in the case of silver) "THE END IS NEAR!"
For much more about silver from the prospective of an engineer who spent 40 years in the field before recently retiring go to Youtube and find my channel w0tm (the 0 is a zero). Especially the very first video. There is much about silver that I don't think was ever published before. If someone after reading all of this and views my videos STILL sells their physical silver I question their sanity.
CHINA
*********************************************************
You also touched on China. I have been "ranting" (may I also once in a while?) that,behind the glittering high tech cities on the coasts, China is a Potemkin Village. China is about to implode as a country. Letting in capitalism in 1989 created an economic boom that few have ever rivaled. But the communist (actually an oligarchy still using the world communist) dictators insisted on continuing the centrally planned mechanism that wrecks economies EVERY time. I refer you to amazing works by James Chanos you can find by putting the term chanos vs. China into Google. Find the Fortune magazine article plus the Youtube interviews.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/17/chanos-vs-china/
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/tag/james-chanos/
and a hundred plus more all using chanos vs. china to find articles, Youtubes and more. I see even one of my Youtube videos is listed!
Most of the world thinks China is the one rock that will be left standing when the dust settles. Not so. They have been VERY smart to use US dollars as collateral in buying commodities around the world. They are cornering the market in some commodities. BUT they have 1.4 billion people to feed. I have watched videos on Youtube (removed due to violence including mass murder) of riots in rural villages where the Chinese army unable to feed itself simply "raided" a town stealing their entire year's harvest. Some farmers resisted with hoes and shovels. They were shot by the hundreds. People of nearby towns were brought to watch so they would not resist when their harvest was stolen. The videos are very gruesome and I'm amazed people managed to smuggle the videos to the West. As a say these are very rural farm villages. This will only get worse. It has recently leaked out that China has a nuclear arsenal three times what they claimed. What does a country do to divert its people when the people are ready to overthrow the government? How many countries are in THAT EXACT situation right now! MANY! War - probably world war.
The signs all point to a dire future where those who are about to become extremely wealthy with a commodity that is becoming extinct will have nothing to buy and nowhere to even hide what they have!
Anyway, GREAT "rant" today. YOUR BEST EVER!
Take care,
Gary Yantis
gyantis@infinitedangers.com
913-441-6593
Kansas City
w0tm Youtube channel0 -
Silver, silver, silver, silver, sil...0
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In many languages there is only one word for silver and money. English is one of the few languages that has 2 words Silver and money. But when reading the Bible, the original translation every time you read money it said silver. Silver is money, paper notes are currency.0
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Flight2quality wrote: »All the stats that are posted about how much is mined, how much is available above ground, yad yada, yada? But one of the things that may break this manipulation wide open, is the fact that when the industrial users simply don't have enough to even remotely supply all the gadgets, and they all scream for silver at one time, then, the world will take notice, and the silver scam might be over.
Some of you are aware one of my first jobs in the 60's was an electronics research engineer. One of my assignments was testing metals. For instance what would a metal do when smashed into concrete at 15,000 MPH after an 8,000 mile ride at 150,000 feet elevation (a nuclear bomb atop an ICBM). Much of the findings were designated Top Secret and some still are although I don't know why since the information is 95% common knowledge. Still, silver sometimes defied the laws of physics. I called it the "mystery metal".
One very top secret bit of information was how much silver remained in the world (no longer classified but it again is no longer published and available to the public!). Is this sudden secrecy a sign of something?
There is an excellent daily e-mail newsletter issued by www.milesfranklin.com. They are a gold and silver dealer. But the newsletter is world class and covers far more than precious metals. Several months ago they hired a gold and silver expert (they are all experts) as Marketing Manager.
He calls his section of the newsletter his rant. He's known as "Ranting Andy"!
The word is starting to leak out that only a few years (three to ten years) of industrial quantity silver still exists in the world. When it is gone - it is gone! Silver is a VITAL metal in high-technology.
Andy wrote about it and added hyperlinks to two other articles. I responded to Andy (as I often do). Here is my response. If you are involved with silver I hope you pick up some new information. Some of it has been classified until recently. IMO - the most difficult part of silver ownership will be holding onto it during the nect few years! Comments and questions are welcome.
The last few paragraphs have to do with China. Not connected with silver but still very important.
**************************************************
Hi Andy!
Your "rant" of today was your best ever! FINALLY someone put it in print the truth about silver.
THE WORLD IS RUNNING OUT OF SILVER!
http://maxkeiser.com/2011/04/08/silver-will-be-the-first-element-in-the-periodic-table-to-become-extinct-shooting-price-per-oz-past-gold/
http://goldsilver.com/news/the-world-will-run-out-of-silver-in-nine-years/
I'm an expert in very little (actually almost nothing) but I think I am in silver. One of my first jobs was as a research electronics engineer testing what happens to metals when it hits concrete at 15,000 MPH. It was Top Secret work for the Atomic Energy Commission. This was emulating a nuclear bomb hitting concrete after an 8,000 mile journey. I was baffled by silver. In some ways it defied the laws of physics! I called it the "mystery metal". I was privy to information that wasn't declassified until the 90's and I think some of it is still classified. The amount of silver above and below ground and the world's annual usage was one of the most closely guarded secrets. I always wondered why. Well, we now all know why! China began to stockpile silver (and is still at it). Bill Clinton in a very foolish move to balance the budget in his first term sold ALL of our 2.5 billion ounces of silver for under $4 an ounce. As an aside Gordon Brown of England a few years later sold much of their gold for $300 an ounce. Our huge stockpile of silver was gone!
By the mid-80's I had built several successful companies and had money to invest. When it became legal to own silver and the American Silver Eagle was begun I bought some EVERY year. Including during all of the no growth years of the 90's. As an electronics engineer I knew of all of the new inventions being developed that would require huge amounts of silver. And, because of my days with the AEC, I knew most of the world's silver was gone forever! Silver is used in minute amounts 98% of the time meaning to reclaim it would cost thousands of dollars an ounce. In contrast 98%+ of gold is reclaimed. I knew computers used huge amounts of silver and I read of all of the other inventions also requiring silver. Where copper could replace silver it was already done. The ONLY places silver is used today is where it MUST be silver and the device doesn't work adequately without silver.
Nine years is probably sooner than that. Why? When industry learns silver is REALLY going to go extinct there will be hoarding as never before. If you run Intel or Apple or any of the other 10,000 companies whose products depend on silver are you going to close your business because silver is unavailable? Actually, some will. $50 radio controlled toy cars and $25 throw away cell phones will be a thing of the past. Will Apple stop making iPads and computers? Eventually, yes, as hard as that is to believe. Intel won't be able to make integrated circuits that have speeds equal to those of 1980! Silver is the #2 most used commodity in the world (not quantity but applications) behind oil. The official industry source that was publishing the amount of silver above and below ground STOPPED publishing this number last month and now say it is "classified". A sign we are drawing near? I think so.
There are inventions coming of which each industry thinks they are the ONLY new user of silver. WRONG! Silver usage is growing 30% a year. It is soon to increase much faster. Several examples. Clothing manufacturers have discovered a fog type spray blended into cloth used for athletic wear (sweat shirts, climbing clothes, hunting, sports, etc.) wick away human sweat keeping the person much cooler. The "secret" ingredient of the spray? Silver! Go into any sporting goods stores today and ask to see the new anti-sweat wicking clothing goods. EVERY store has them. They LOVE to sell them as they keep it a secret the fog the cloth spend a few hours in costs about 10 cents per garmet but they charge 30 to100% more. They are selling like crazy because it works!
Here are some more (yet to come in quantity). IF the new all electric cars are ever sold in quantity (I wonder as they are catching on fire!) they require a SPECIAL battery and that battery requires a minute amount of silver. Your regular lead acid battery is WAY too heavy if you want to go more than five miles and other batteries are not much better. Even this special EXPENSIVE battery has a range of 100 miles and takes hours to charge. Ten million of these electric cars with the silver using batteries equals twice the annual amount of silver mined world wide!
I go on. Roof mounted electric solar panels each require a small amount of silver. IT MUST BE SILVER - PERIOD! To put panels on the roofs of 100 millions average sized homes would require THREE times the annual amount of silver mined world wide.
Whew! I have a list of dozens more and I subscribe to industrial journals listing both inventions being worked on and patents being applied for (all that use silver). Add them ALL up and the amount is more than all of the usable silver that exists in the world times three! That does not include the 95% of the silver mankind has used up over the last 5000 years. It's all silver dust at the bottom of trash dumps. Silver is not magnetic so there is no way to easily find it. And silver is almost always in such minute amounts (think of the inside of an Intel integrated circuit) one IC may contain, say, .005 ounces of silver. To retrieve that silver using any method currently known to man is either impossible or would cost thousands of dollars. To retrieve a full ounce might cost $50,000!
During the coming months those in finance will do all they can to create wild swings in price hoping to scare holders of physical silver into selling out in disgust and going back to paper fiat currency. We're not talking decades. I think we're talking just a few years. Industrial users who buy in quantity have reported mint marks of when the silver bar was poured to be AFTER the day they ordered the silver. Lead times are stretching out. They will soon REALLY stretch out. Why is Eric Sprott buying a HUGE addition to his silver hoard? Because he is a very smart man who KNOWS silver!
The most difficult obstacle ahead will be governments who will be pressured to make the ownership of physical silver illegal. Government will be ready with (worthless) paper silver certificates! Difficult times are ahead!
After industrial quantity of silver is used up and then scrap silver is melted down and used the amount held by investors will keep industry supplied with silver for another year. It doesn't matter if it is stolen or purchased from investors.
As the old say goes (in the case of silver) "THE END IS NEAR!"
For much more about silver from the prospective of an engineer who spent 40 years in the field before recently retiring go to Youtube and find my channel w0tm (the 0 is a zero). Especially the very first video. There is much about silver that I don't think was ever published before. If someone after reading all of this and views my videos STILL sells their physical silver I question their sanity.
CHINA
*********************************************************
You also touched on China. I have been "ranting" (may I also once in a while?) that,behind the glittering high tech cities on the coasts, China is a Potemkin Village. China is about to implode as a country. Letting in capitalism in 1989 created an economic boom that few have ever rivaled. But the communist (actually an oligarchy still using the world communist) dictators insisted on continuing the centrally planned mechanism that wrecks economies EVERY time. I refer you to amazing works by James Chanos you can find by putting the term chanos vs. China into Google. Find the Fortune magazine article plus the Youtube interviews.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/17/chanos-vs-china/
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/tag/james-chanos/
and a hundred plus more all using chanos vs. china to find articles, Youtubes and more. I see even one of my Youtube videos is listed!
Most of the world thinks China is the one rock that will be left standing when the dust settles. Not so. They have been VERY smart to use US dollars as collateral in buying commodities around the world. They are cornering the market in some commodities. BUT they have 1.4 billion people to feed. I have watched videos on Youtube (removed due to violence including mass murder) of riots in rural villages where the Chinese army unable to feed itself simply "raided" a town stealing their entire year's harvest. Some farmers resisted with hoes and shovels. They were shot by the hundreds. People of nearby towns were brought to watch so they would not resist when their harvest was stolen. The videos are very gruesome and I'm amazed people managed to smuggle the videos to the West. As a say these are very rural farm villages. This will only get worse. It has recently leaked out that China has a nuclear arsenal three times what they claimed. What does a country do to divert its people when the people are ready to overthrow the government? How many countries are in THAT EXACT situation right now! MANY! War - probably world war.
The signs all point to a dire future where those who are about to become extremely wealthy with a commodity that is becoming extinct will have nothing to buy and nowhere to even hide what they have!
Anyway, GREAT "rant" today. YOUR BEST EVER!
Take care,
Gary Yantis
[EMAIL="gyantis@infinitedangers.com"]gyantis@infinitedangers.com[/EMAIL]
913-441-6593
Kansas City
w0tm Youtube channel
Virtually none of that is true.0 -
-
Virtually none of that website is true.
Who are you going to believe? The ones who want you to think there is plenty of silver left and demand is not that much? Or those who tell you there is a tiny fraction of silver left compared with history and it is getting very scarce and they will not be able to keep the price suppressed much longer.0 -
Flight2quality wrote: »Virtually none of that website is true.
Who are you going to believe? The ones who want you to think there is plenty of silver left and demand is not that much? Or those who tell you there is a tiny fraction of silver left compared with history and it is getting very scarce and they will not be able to keep the price suppressed much longer.
I believe the independant experts that track the demand and supply by getting their figures directly from the people that produce and use silver.0
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