More bad news for house prices

tonycottee

Unforunately my degree isn't in Economics so I'm not qualified to make projections, only guess.
You on the other hand have. Do you work in Economics Flight2quality, or are you jusr schooled in it?

lvader

I'm more bullish about Gold and Platunum than Silver, there is a lot of scope to increase silver production but the same isn't true about the other 2. All the big Silver miners have large exploration projects in advanced stages and there are quite a few juniors with large reserves ready to be dug up. Yes starting up new mines takes time but in the meantime we already have a big production surplus.

The only thing that could make silver take off isn't industrial demand but PI speculation, the silver market is relatively small and if you have enough people taking product off the market then prices are going to go up. I don't underestimate the Internets power to ramp an investment so that has to be taken into account. What Silver really needs is a catalyst, depression won't do it, the break up of the Euro won't do it, what you need is prolonged high inflation in the US, so far inflation has remained low.

So the question is this, with growth projected to be low or negative for years to come, what is going to cause high inflation in the US when mass QE didn't do it and higher growth didn't either? I do expect some devaluation of the USD as investors look to exit government bond positions but I expect it to be 10-20% rather than something extreme.


Apart from a possible short term spike I predict Silver prices to remain below $150 by 2020.

Flight2quality

lvader wrote: »

I'm more bullish about Gold and Platunum than Silver, there is a lot of scope to increase silver production but the same isn't true about the other 2. All the big Silver miners have large exploration projects in advanced stages and there are quite a few juniors with large reserves ready to be dug up. Yes starting up new mines takes time but in the meantime we already have a big production surplus.

The only thing that could make silver take off isn't industrial demand but PI speculation, the silver market is relatively small and if you have enough people taking product off the market then prices are going to go up. I don't underestimate the Internets power to ramp an investment so that has to be taken into account. What Silver really needs is a catalyst, depression won't do it, the break up of the Euro won't do it, what you need is prolonged high inflation in the US, so far inflation has remained low.

So the question is this, with growth projected to be low or negative for years to come, what is going to cause high inflation in the US when mass QE didn't do it and higher growth didn't either? I do expect some devaluation of the USD as investors look to exit government bond positions but I expect it to be 10-20% rather than something extreme.


Apart from a possible short term spike I predict Silver prices to remain below $150 by 2020.

Wow $150 is pretty bullish, I would be happy with $150 oz next few years.

I don't agree with you being more bullish about gold. It doesn't have any real industrial demand. Plus it has already had its big gains, it will go up some more sure but its more plentiful supply than silver. Silver has to catch up with gold.

But you are right about investment demand being more than supply for silver. The interent has changed everything since the last bull run like this in the 70's. Now even poor people in the slums can get online and learn about silver and buy a few grams here and there. It really is potentially over 7 billion people in the market for silver this time around

About the silver mines, I know you are invested in a few. I simply buy pure silver bullion coins and bars stay away from anything paper including mining shares. There is nothing more reliable than actual bullion in your possession. Mining shares are subject to too much risk. Natural disasters or even man made disasters. There is a story going viral all over the net that there is a planned electromagnetic pulse attack on all the primary silver mines left that have not yet been depleted.

It can from this chap who is an expert on EMP's he said..........

I'm also very active in "EMP" (electromagnetic pulse) research having been
one of the first engineers doing research in EMP (before it was called EMP)
when I was about 24 working as an engineer on Top Secret programs for the
Atomic Energy Commission (AEC - name has been changed since then).

Since I was quite young and there were, perhaps, 100 engineers working in
EMP in the 60's most of them have passed on by now. I'm guessing there are
fewer than a dozen of us still around. I stay in touch with a few. I hold
a few patents concerning EMP (never made any money on them - owned by my
employer - the AEC). EMP is a very complicated technology and I suspect
there are a few minor things of little importance still marked "Top Secret"
that the few of us who are left know plus the information is on papers
locked in a file cabinet somewhere.

As you may know, EMP is suddenly becoming a MAJOR topic rivaling nuclear
weapons. I've been asked to write articles on EMP and I'm "brushing up" on
what I helped discover 40 years ago. I don't think I know anything of
interest to our government or any other.

STILL:
I received the following e-mail today:
***************************************************
Having read your book and being inspired by you we are a group who intend on
carrying out a series of events that may change the world.


For obvious reasons you will never know who we are and you do not have to
feel in any way responsible for what is about to happen soon.


This email can never be traced to anyone involved in the project. Out of
respect to you and your readers we would like to inform you of an impending
coordinated EMP attack on an unknown number of primary silver producing
mines in South America. That is all.


You may inform your readers they have a little time left to get as much
silver as they can before these prices are gone forever. When you hear what
has happened on the alternative news your mouth will drop, this is not a
coincidence you have been informed before the events transpire.
**********************************************************

A prank? perhaps. Odd that it comes a day after I write a newsletter
concerning silver and I'm interviewed regarding EMP.

Flight2quality

Batchy wrote: »

The estate agents are flapping as they are surviving off the scraps... they need more commission per transaction to keep their head above water.
The rental market is in growth, due to accidental landlords, but they are raking it in, so its a shame for them ... this accident! lol

At the end of the day, there are 60m people in this country and for every estate thats being built a block of flats gets knocked down, housing has not been increasing but the same rate as the population, therefore its expensive to live a single life, couples feeling a pinch are getting by. less holidays less new cars, but thats life.

But they are building new houses now for every one council house they sell. This means 2 houses on the available market for every council house they sell, as soon as the people who bought their council house for 50% put it on the market.

Plus see that channel 4 thing the other night? Over a MILLION empty homes that they know about, if everyone reported empties it could be millions more. I know of a few empty flats and houses round my way. Not to mention all the empty commercial buildings that could be turned into residential now without the need for planning.

The answer is to keep building new homes as planned but AS WELL keep getting people into all the empty buildings commercial as well as residential.

Hope most of this can happen before property prices correct down to where they should be, but then they may over shoot on the way down.

Flight2quality

Over the long term Sprott believes that he market has made gold the reserve currency.
"I don't care whether the central banks have or governments have, but the markets made it the reserve currency... central banks have been aiding and abetting that process - they're almost making it the reserve currency by their actions, not by their statements and when it was a reserve currency silver traded at a ratio of 15 to 16:1 of the price of gold."
Over the shorter term, he says there is clear evidence of strong demand for the metal, "demand for silver is versus the demand for gold in the investment arena and when I see people like Gold Money sell as many dollars of silver, as gold. When I see the US Mint sell as many dollars of silver as gold which by the way implies in both instances, 50 times more physical than gold. And when we did the IPO for Gold Trust we made $440 million. When we did the IPO for the Silver Trust we made $550 million...Well how can the price be 50:1 when the money is going in 1:1?"

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=141088&sn=Detail&pid=110649

angrypirate

Aberdeenangarse wrote: »

So an article from Moneyweek saying House prices will crash.......now there's a surprise!

In all fairness, id take moneyweek over express any day of the week. At least Moneyweek put reasons and evidence to their argument, instead of the Express who shamelessly ramp with no basis.

ukcarper

Apart from the obvious ( who I believe everybody takes with a pinch of salt) say house prices are likely to go up in the short-term?

Flight2quality

ukcarper wrote: »

Apart from the obvious ( who I believe everybody takes with a pinch of salt) say house prices are likely to go up in the short-term?

So obvious I have no idea what you are talking about. Sorry maybe it's just me. But you are saying the bear market is now over for houses and the next cycle and bull market has started? I think you will find you are in the minority there caper.

There will be a time when houses are at bottom and the next bull market has started but we are no where near this time yet.

robmatic

ukcarper wrote: »

Apart from the obvious ( who I believe everybody takes with a pinch of salt) say house prices are likely to go up in the short-term?

I think the vast majority of posters on here seem to be expecting prices to fall in the short term. Which makes the whole bull vs bear thing even more ridiculous.

wotsthat

robmatic wrote: »

I think the vast majority of posters on here seem to be expecting prices to fall in the short term. Which makes the whole bull vs bear thing even more ridiculous.

I think the vast majority of people on here are bearish. The silly bulls vs bears arguments seems to be more a case of orthodox bears vs. fundamentalist bears.