House price predictions

lypsey

DS
what do you mean by "i don't have a mortgage as such." ??

Also I am curious to your figures , you say you are worth a million. But from an earlier thread i thought you said you had mortgages on these properties. You are only worth a million when you can get a million in cash. Please would you be kind enough to post how many houses you have and what your mortgages and houses are worth. I bet you will not post for fear of being ridiculed or you will make them up

Also what town are you in please

albacore1854

lypsey wrote:

DS
what do you mean by "i don't have a mortgage as such." ??

Also I am curious to your figures , you say you are worth a million. But from an earlier thread i thought you said you had mortgages on these properties. You are only worth a million when you can get a million in cash. Please would you be kind enough to post how many houses you have and what your mortgages and houses are worth. I bet you will not post for fear of being ridiculed or you will make them up

Also what town are you in please

Its irrelevent, what the boy means, is that he is capable of filling in a mtg application.

lypsey

DS
I have just been back and studied your previous posts . One reads as follows
"Hi all,

Brand new to site looks great.

Got first mortgage while at university in 2003 have since bought and sold 9 properties and currently own 5.

Have nearly £1 million pounds worth of property at 26 and started off with £2k. I earn £20k a year.

Just about to put current home on market which i bought 3 months ago for £187k Should get £220 k for it and have done absolutely nothing to it.

I can't understand people wanting to pay off their mortgages it makes no sense whatsoever. Make it yourself thats what I say."

The last paragraph about paying off your mortgage makes no sense tells me you are a complete muppet . Also I notice from your post all this money has been made on property since 2003 . Your are bending the truth somewhat my friend

Ok you may have a million pounds of property but if your telling me you have most of that paid off I will eat my hat

Lastly if you are such a whizz kid WHY are you only earning 20k a year. You are a little fibber aren't you DS

fivemice

albacore - can we cut out the name calling please, it's not pleasant, appropriate or necessary.

devils_advocate

Sums all wrong but nice effort

Just between us, ds, I hate to think that I'd unintentionally misled the good readers of this site, so could you possibly tell me where my sums were wrong? (I do know that its unrealistic of me to assume that interest on a mortgage is compounded annually, and then simply to double that number for the second year, but I did say the arrears were 'nearly £9500' so I hoped that would excuse my laziness.

Being quite honest, I really can't be rsed to knock up a spreadsheet to work out the actual interest on the interest arrears, which would give the true picture that I was glossing over in my calculations.

So to give you simpler sums (that is, far simpler for me to do) on the assumptions : borrow £172,000, annual interst rate 6.24% compounded monthly at the end of the month, 25 year term payable monthly. Monthly payments would be £1,133.57 (rounded). On the basis that these payments were made, after 12 months £10,649.28 would have been paid in interest and the outstanding balance would be £169,046.46.

On the same basis, after 24 months total interest paid would have been £20,717.38 and o/s principal would be £162,558.20.

Please let me have your agreement or otherwise to my calculations.

Pobby

OK,lets look at it another way.History has had bubbles,the tulip bubble,the Wall Street crash because the stock market was over bloated the dot com. bubble and so forth.

Crashes occur after a period of over confidence when lots of folk have piled into the market place thinking``prices will only ever go up``.It needs a trigger of some sort.Often panic when everyone trys to aim for the exit.Btl late coming into the market are getting very low if not negative yields.A few further rate hikes and many will be beating a quick retreat.Repros are firmly on the way up and may hit the market as they could be sold off at below market value.

The reason I say this a bubble is theat my house has nearly quadrupled in 7 years.Tell me how this sustainable!

Almost_Redundant

ds1980 wrote:

If houses go up ill be quids in if houses go down ill be quids in as ill buy more??!??!?!?


If they go down what are you going to buy them with as your equity will have been erroded? Also, who are you going to sell them to? The market will be swamped allowing buyers to be very choosy. If you hold, then a lot can happen in the 14 years until your 40th!! Good luck.

P.S hope that you are paying your capital gains tax dues!!

Gorgeous_George

BTLers will suffer less than homeowners in a crash.

For example, a £10K drop in house price equates to just £6K for a BTLer due to the reduced CGT liability.

Of course, price falls will put a dampener on the 'business'. My only consolation is that there are millions of people who will be worse off than me - and I wish no-one any misfortune.

Repossessions = empty houses = more pressure on the rental market. Any BTLer not concerned about property prices will not lose out.

The most affected will be those owning small houses and flats. Nobody will want to buy a poky little one bedroomed flat or house when a two bed house is within their grasp.

As prices crash, builders stop building. They hold onto their land waiting for the upturn.

As for DS, I think it's BS.

AR:- CGT is only paid when you sell and make a profit.



GG

P.S.
I'm surprised that so many people have voted. 179 so far and the results are not as I expected with voting for a rise than a fall - despite IR increases.

tomstickland

From the master of maths:

A house is not going to lose £50000 im sorry but its not and remember you only lose out if you sell!

How do you know? Maths cannot predict the future.

Do the sums and really you'll actually gain eff all! Don't forget the capital you should have gained in those 2 years which could have been a nice sum to move to a bigger house or use to have nicce holidays or treat yourself to a new car without having to borrow off a loan company as such.

That would be borrowing against the market value of the house, which is just plain old borrowing.

I could go on and on and on but you should do the maths yourself and if anyone would have been better off waiting than good luck to you but you'll be one in a million that won't.

If we remove the blather and arrogance then it just seems to boil down to the situation where you own a few houses and expect limitless capital gains.

BobProperty

Gorgeous_George wrote:

BTLers will suffer less than homeowners in a crash.

Yes, they'll sell any asset, take on another job etc. etc. just to keep a roof over their tenant's head.

Gorgeous_George wrote:

For example, a £10K drop in house price equates to just £6K for a BTLer due to the reduced CGT liability.

Tell me how you reclaim the 40% you lose when forced to sell then?

Gorgeous_George wrote:

Repossessions = empty houses = more pressure on the rental market.

Yes, all repossessions have to remain empty for years by law.

Gorgeous_George wrote:

Any BTLer not concerned about property prices will not lose out.

As rising property prices are the main reason they are or have recently been buying into BTL, that's like saying shareholders aren't interested in shareprices.