House price predictions

lypsey

DS
What planet are you on??
ok for all you people that are hoping the house market will crash.
A house is not going to lose £50000 im sorry but its not and remember you only lose out if you sell! Come on you need to get real , the house your talking about has probably gone up 200% in the last decade , it can easily fall 30-50%. If you can't cover the mortgage and interest rates go up don't forget you may HAVE to sell and then you have a debt of 30K
rent costs for 2 years (conservative) £500 pm ???? = £12000.
I have sold my house and am earning a lot of interest , why do you assume it costs money

No hassles with getting someone round to look at the washer,
Wrong , most "good " landlords such as the one I have sort everything out very quickly , also it doesnt cost me a penny . I have had the washing machine , plumbing and all the gas sorted out very quickly with no cost

Do the sums and really you'll actually gain eff all!
Wrong if house prices crash which they will I will lessen my mortgage by half for a few years hassle
Don't forget the capital you should have gained in those 2 years which could have been a nice sum to move to a bigger house or use to have nicce holidays or treat yourself to a new car without having to borrow
You assume far too much

Just as a small aside I live in a 5 bedroom house in the countryside worth about 360k that I could not afford and it costs me 800 quid a month. I have money in the bank , I DO NOT have a mortgage or debt , I have no maintanance. Personally I have never been so relaxed . I DID have a mortgage since I was 20 (now 40) and life could not be better. If houses go down 25% which they did within the first 2 years of buying my 1st house I will be quids in. Whos the mug now??

Take a look at this graph
http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/stats/house-price-to-earnings-ratio.jsp
My very young children could forecast what happens after the 3rd and largest peak .... yes the 3rd and largest fall. There is a good reason why the ratio of earnings/house prices is close to 3 times and is now showing at 6.8 times . It is because it is affordable

You need to be very careful about your predictions .

roswell

If no one is buying houses builders have no customers.

They cant sell the houses they have so there is a surplus, the house value is now a liability because they cant get there costs back out the property ... no one can buy it because they cant afford the mortgage so they dont move .. because they dont move sentiment changes to "Dont buy a house you will loose money" do you remember the stock market in 2002 ?? it only crashed because somone one decided it might not be good to invest in companys with 0 assets ... once the rumours started that it might be a bad idea everyone bailed out.

Has anyone noticed when there is a sale on at ASDA everyone goes shopping but when the stock market of property crash sorry have 50% off sale .. no one buys .. its always confused me.

Alan_M_2

roswell wrote:

Has anyone noticed when there is a sale on at ASDA everyone goes shopping but when the stock market of property crash sorry have 50% off sale .. no one buys .. its always confused me.

This is because the lenders will have been badly burned and reacted by heavily over tightening lending, thus houses are still no more affordable at the lower price as the lenders won't lend for fear of further falls (unless you have a large deposit). Over time things slacken as the market levels out.

The real winners are those that cashed in large before hand, rode it for a few years then wade back in with readies on the table:D

devils_advocate

imagining a £150000 house 2 years ago has risen ?????? 15% i would say a lot more than that but im being conservative. price now is £172250. the house market then falls 20%-30% price now £138000 - £120750 (please bare in mind that this is highly highly unlikely. A house is not going to lose £50000 im sorry but its not and remember you only lose out if you sell!

rent costs for 2 years (conservative) £500 pm ???? = £12000. This could have gone into your own house!!!!

Money paid off mortgage in 2 years (capital and repayment) = £5000 or so.

I listen to lots of people and do a lot of research I now have a great team behind me so i take an interest but they do most of my work i do the maths

forgive me for doing a bit of the maths too. House worth £172k, rental income £500 pm, gross yield 3.49%. And that's before management fees, repairs, gas safety certificate, voids, etc.

Similarly, mortgage £172k, interest rate 6.24% (50 basis points less than Nationwide's SVR) equates to annual interest of £10,732.80 or £894.40 per month. Using your example of someone paying a mortgage of £500 per month instead of rent, they would end up in arrears of nearly £9,500 at the end of 2 years rather than the £5,000 paid off the capital that you suggest!

Can I sell you my house and be your tenant??

ds1980

devils_advocate wrote:

forgive me for doing a bit of the maths too. House worth £172k, rental income £500 pm, gross yield 3.49%. And that's before management fees, repairs, gas safety certificate, voids, etc.

Similarly, mortgage £172k, interest rate 6.24% (50 basis points less than Nationwide's SVR) equates to annual interest of £10,732.80 or £894.40 per month. Using your example of someone paying a mortgage of £500 per month instead of rent, they would end up in arrears of nearly £9,500 at the end of 2 years rather than the £5,000 paid off the capital that you suggest!

Can I sell you my house and be your tenant??

Sums all wrong but nice effort

abaxas

ds1980 wrote:

Sums all wrong but nice effort

Can you please provide your 'sums'?

ds1980

lypsey wrote:

DS
What planet are you on??
ok for all you people that are hoping the house market will crash.
A house is not going to lose £50000 im sorry but its not and remember you only lose out if you sell! Come on you need to get real , the house your talking about has probably gone up 200% in the last decade , it can easily fall 30-50%. If you can't cover the mortgage and interest rates go up don't forget you may HAVE to sell and then you have a debt of 30K
rent costs for 2 years (conservative) £500 pm ???? = £12000.
I have sold my house and am earning a lot of interest , why do you assume it costs money

No hassles with getting someone round to look at the washer,
Wrong , most "good " landlords such as the one I have sort everything out very quickly , also it doesnt cost me a penny . I have had the washing machine , plumbing and all the gas sorted out very quickly with no cost

Do the sums and really you'll actually gain eff all!
Wrong if house prices crash which they will I will lessen my mortgage by half for a few years hassle
Don't forget the capital you should have gained in those 2 years which could have been a nice sum to move to a bigger house or use to have nicce holidays or treat yourself to a new car without having to borrow
You assume far too much

Just as a small aside I live in a 5 bedroom house in the countryside worth about 360k that I could not afford and it costs me 800 quid a month. I have money in the bank , I DO NOT have a mortgage or debt , I have no maintanance. Personally I have never been so relaxed . I DID have a mortgage since I was 20 (now 40) and life could not be better. If houses go down 25% which they did within the first 2 years of buying my 1st house I will be quids in. Whos the mug now??

Take a look at this graph
http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/stats/house-price-to-earnings-ratio.jsp
My very young children could forecast what happens after the 3rd and largest peak .... yes the 3rd and largest fall. There is a good reason why the ratio of earnings/house prices is close to 3 times and is now showing at 6.8 times . It is because it is affordable

You need to be very careful about your predictions .

Unbelieveable, I couldnt care less what the stats tell me i know i can afford my own home and everyone else i couldn't give a monkeys at. For you to be content to live in a house where you pay someone else £10000 a year at 40 i find unbearable and once again its people like you who make me want to succeed. I have all the money you have and some, i don't have a mortgage as such. My house was bought for cash and other people pay the rest of my mortgages and im 26.

By 40 i will not be in the uk i will live in some warmer climate with all my family as ill be able to buy their properties for them also. I wont be sat on the computer at home making pointless writings to people who know better.

If houses go up ill be quids in if houses go down ill be quids in as ill buy more??!??!?!?

Good luck in your contented little world i suppose its what makes you happy but i won't be content until i make another million.

abaxas

ds1980 wrote:

Good luck in your contented little world i suppose its what makes you happy but i won't be content until i make another million.

I'm having a little difficulty finding the first one? Maybe you could help and tell me where it is?

wolvoman

ds1980 wrote:

Unbelieveable, I couldnt care less what the stats tell me i know i can afford my own home and everyone else i couldn't give a monkeys at. For you to be content to live in a house where you pay someone else £10000 a year at 40 i find unbearable and once again its people like you who make me want to succeed. I have all the money you have and some, i don't have a mortgage as such. My house was bought for cash and other people pay the rest of my mortgages and im 26.

By 40 i will not be in the uk i will live in some warmer climate with all my family as ill be able to buy their properties for them also. I wont be sat on the computer at home making pointless writings to people who know better.

If houses go up ill be quids in if houses go down ill be quids in as ill buy more??!??!?!?

Good luck in your contented little world i suppose its what makes you happy but i won't be content until i make another million.

Sounds like you're doing very well and well on your way to becoming very rich. Maybe you could buy some class to go with all that money.

albacore1854

wolvoman wrote:

Sounds like you're doing very well and well on your way to becoming very rich. Maybe you could buy some class to go with all that money.

here here, what a !!!!!!! still we all learn in time.

Prior to '91 that could have been me, but then in those days a million quid was a lot of money, now as, demonstrated any !!!! can do it.

I may be a lot poorer now than I was, I no longer have the best cars, good restaurants are a deserved treat rather than every other night, but I'm a hell of a lot happier.

Personally I want a crash, rising markets are too easy, lets sort the men from the boys. If you have the balls ride it this time as I did last, lets see if you're so cocky when you lose a million.