Nationwide -0.6%

Pimperne1

Second leg down anyone (but really the transaction numbers are too low to make too much of this!).

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Year on year at -0.4%.

From the Nationwide release....

“UK house prices declined by 0.6% in August, although this
doesn’t change the picture of relative stability that has
characterised the market over the past twelve months.
Indeed, prices were broadly unchanged compared with
August 2010 – just 0.4% lower.

“Sluggish demand for homes, combined with only a gradual
rise in the supply of available properties, has helped to keep
property prices stable since last summer. We expect this
trend to be maintained over the remainder of 2011, although
downside risks have increased as UK and global growth
prospects have weakened.

“We continue to expect the UK economic recovery to
gradually get back on track in the quarters ahead, which
should guard against a significant deterioration in
employment.

“Policymakers have recognised the growing threat to UK
growth and, as a result, interest rates are now expected to
remain on hold until well into 2012, which will provide
ongoing support for domestic spending. This is a significant
shift from just a few months ago, when financial markets
pointed to rates rising before the end of the summer.

“Against this backdrop we continue to expect house prices
to move sideways, or drift modestly lower over the
remainder of 2011, although we recognise that the downside
risks have increased.”

Generali

More of the same then, flat YoY.

AIUI there shouldn't be a problem with volumes at present for Nationwide's index as their mix adjustment doesn't need big volumes. HBOS look to have a problem due to their methodology though which requires high volumes.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Yep, stagnation remains the order of the day for most. A few postcodes are rising, a few more are falling, but for most people, in most properties, in most areas, the market is stable.

brit1234

Good news, it shows the delayed impact of the Spring bounce is over. We should have a good 9 months of price falls from now on. Halifax should be down and Land Registry may be up next month before falling again.

House prices are still extremely overvalued and unsustainable at these levels. The economic fundamentals point to further falls.

DervProf

Pimperne1 wrote: »

If you look at the chart in OP you will see that if its positive tomorrow then the rest of the year is going to be bleak for bears (prices plummeted from September 2010 until March 2011 so September to March are going to be increasing YoY positive barring something quite unexpected).

So, how's it looking for the bears now ?

I'm not expecting month after month of price drops, but the longer we have stagnation in the property market, the lower the obsession will be in bricks and mortar. Maybe people will stop blindly lining the pockets of the banks, and spend their money in other areas of the economy. The added bonus is that it will quieten the likes of Sibley, who behaves like a spoiled kid in a sweet shop. Sorry* Sibley, no sweets for you today.

* Not sorry actually.

Graham_Devon

I still wonder how people can maintain the market can surge ahead.

It can't even figure out what it's doing, even if the "houses are cheaper than at any time since 1999" bunkem was true. Interest rates at their lowest level they are ever going to reach (bar from another 0.5% drop which will do diddly squat). Were getting more mortgage approvals, better mortgages, new schemes for FTB's, low levels of building, still increasing population.

All that, and it still moves sideways.

DervProf

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I still wonder how people can maintain the market can surge ahead.

For the same reason that some people thought the market would fall 50%+. VI can cloud one's judgement, as can continuous media reporting. The truth is that it is almost impossible to accurately predict where house prices will be in a few years time. However, it's very easy to predict where you want house prices to be, and not so difficult to give reasons for your prediction, be it positive or negative. The problem is that the mantra "house prices only go up" is so deeply ingrained in so many people, that the positive predictions and reports far outweigh the negative ones. As you know, any negative opinions tend to be shot down in flames, no matter how reasonable they are.

ukcarper

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I still wonder how people can maintain the market can surge ahead.

It can't even figure out what it's doing, even if the "houses are cheaper than at any time since 1999" bunkem was true. Interest rates at their lowest level they are ever going to reach (bar from another 0.5% drop which will do diddly squat). Were getting more mortgage approvals, better mortgages, new schemes for FTB's, low levels of building, still increasing population.

All that, and it still moves sideways.

How many people are saying that the market will surge ahead not many? Most people expect the market to stagnate and in my opinion that is a good thing after all most people buy a house buy to live in. In real terms stagnation slowly brings the price of property down and allows people to save for a deposit without the price of a house running away from them, without having a bad effect on existing home owners.

DervProf

I note from Nationwide's figures, the average house price fell by nearly £3000 in August.

I await the headlines "House Prices Falling By Nearly £100 A Day".

Batchy

Stagnation...

July YOY 0.4%
August YOY 0.4%

The rest is just noise... in this market anyone who reduces their price is either desperate, forced too, or just a bit silly. But everyone has reasons.

I think Stagnation is where it needs to be, and it points very much to Japans situation... Stagflation... is coming.