Forecast for the 2011/2012 winter for gardeners?

J_J_Carter

Anyone doing the biz with monitoring sun-spot activity, jet stream, La Niña etc. care to make a forecast for the coming winter?

Another freeze (three in a row!) or something milder?

Some forecasts on t'interwebs:

I therefore expect the 2011-2012 winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November and December was in 2010 for the vast majority of this winter. It will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit.

'The 2011-12 winter may be one of worst overall for UK in last 100 Years with past two a mere curtain raiser'

rising_from_the_ashes

I'm preparing for the worst!

Couldn't get car out / no post / shopping delivered for over 3 weeks last year (and was a nightmare for longer than that) - ran out of cat litter:eek: and down to 3 days medication for dog. never again

Early indications appear to be suggesting ... you guessed it ... 3 in a row
Have a look at this site http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html (links to early predictions at bottom)

peter_the_piper

Hope its wrong, fed up with refilling the oil tank, and thats just for one greenhouse.

lostinrates

well.....I'm worried about plants, and going to be thatching things I'd never thought of protecting before.....and we have no heating in the house bar a woodburner in one room.....so bringing things in to an unheated room if in pots IS an option...but how good that will be I'm not sure. Last year our loo froze solid for a while, which all got very interesting!


BUT, before we get too gloomy, most people will hopefully be better prepped this year for personal provisions, dh gets snowed in so has to work from home (huge delight for us!) and it IS beautiful, and as long as thingds that need protecting are protected, its a very special way to enjoy our gardens....I admit, I adore it...the snow, the hoar frosts....all of it....both bring the garden a beauty even the best gardeners can't.

My main concern, with livestock, is that its going to be a longer winter and for that reason, more expensive to feed, but.....it also gets rid of the thrush that's persisted through this wet summer in my horses' feet and means lots of snuggling up, good stews and soups and hot toddies.

Of course, surveying the damage and costs of that is grim and depressing and expensive, but its worth countering that with enjoying it in any way we can!

oldtractor

maybe it will confound us all and be very mild.

annie123

OP I monitor all of those things but I still can not tell you what winter will be like in August;)

The quote is from James Madden who forecasts for exactaweather, the link posted a few posts above.

I'm not saying he's wrong but whilst he did predict early snow even in the south east (so did the met office but they only told the government!) he was not right for other months here in London and in many other bits of the UK.
The UK is a big place and over the years I have found that you can make almost any forecast fit somewhere in the UK.

I'm a member of several weather forums and they can be very useful for gardeners maybe
http://forum.netweather.tv/
http://met-monkey.co.uk/weather.forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=12863&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=375

and the link below will be full of ideas and disagreements soon with regards to the winter coming:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/newsdebate/f/t-10229610/p-51/index.html?threadIndex=30


You can't use berries as a guide because you get a good crop after a cold winter, the only thing I know works is that ladybirds come into my kitchen on the last few days of nice weather so I know when it's turning, but other than that I predict that winter will be colder than summer:D thats as much detail as you can get for certain in August;)

kazschow

I've got six months supply of dog food in at the mo, so they'll be fed no matter what, maybe we'll have to resort to a diet of kibble if we get hit bad again in the wild west of scotland hehehee

[Deleted User]

we were snowed in for 6 weeks last winter so preparations are well under way for another bad winter, which looks to be on the cards. I am definitely not leaving parsnips in from early december, I have tried getting a few out now and they take me ages to dig out as the roots are so well bedded down so any frozen ground will be impossible. I am also thinking of alternative places for potatoes and alliums as the shed and garage just will not do in a freeze. Various trees in large pots suffered so I am getting their duvets in early.

Dehydrator is working hard, potatoes, parsnips, herbs, onions etc as is brining and lacto fermenting. The freezer is stuffed full.

J_J_Carter

The freezer is stuffed full

Useful reminder that if it is freezing over Europe, gas supplies will be limited and there will likely be rolling powercuts over the UK. Getting a 240V 1kW generator now and some jerry-cans of petrol could pay dividends.

taxsaver

J_J_Carter wrote: »

Useful reminder that if it is freezing over Europe, gas supplies will be limited and there will likely be rolling powercuts over the UK. Getting a 240V 1kW generator now and some jerry-cans of petrol could pay dividends.

... but how do you safely hook that up to your house system so that it doesn't blow when the mains comes back on? Or are you running an extension lead in through a window, which perhaps (with the cold that will also enter) defeats the object?

angelavdavis

Don't forget to order in the fire logs now. We have had ours in dry store since end March and started cutting up pallets last weekend for kindling. My weather predictor is my laurel bush which is covered in berries this year so I think it is going to be a cold one.