Is now the time to buy stocks/shares??

Thrugelmir

gadgetmind wrote: »

Quite so. These mass panics see the good being flogged off along with the bad. If you carefully pick companies with good dividends, good divi cover, a history of rising dividends, strong business models, and broad moats, you can slowly build a portfolio that delivers good returns and few unpleasant surprises.

The past is no guide to future performance.

Look at the constituents of the FTSE 100 just 25 years ago. Where are many of them now?

brasso

If you're looking for capital growth, I don't think this is a good time to buy. The problems in the USA and Europe that have caused the recent share slide are still there, and will be for some time to come.

I would say there's more volatility on the way, and even with the occasional good days that we will inevitably get, the trend is still downwards.

A skilful and/or lucky day trader can make money whatever the market conditions but most of us (me included) don't have the resources and the capacity for stress required to succeed in that game.

I sold almost all the equities in my SIPP at the end of last week. A bit late, and it means a 10% dip compared to its highest point a month or two back. But I'm relieved I'm out of equities (apart from a couple of gold-related shares that I'm hanging onto as they're doing well).

I'll aim to buy back in when the longer term indicators are more stable. This may be some time. Perhaps years. And I have to hope that I buy back in at a good time. There is no guarantee that even a few good weeks or months of stock market performance will 'prove' that the good times are back.

Just my view. You have to make your own mind up. There is every chance I'm wrong!

jimjames

DiggerUK wrote: »

What we see at the moment, is shares below their 2007 highs, which are way below their 1999 highs.
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Maybe for the UK market as a whole measured by FTSE100 - although taking dividends into account most will not have lost money even in the FTSE.

For other markets you would still be looking at a substantial rise and for individual shares it could be a mix of both.

So in summary it is very difficult to make a general statement that shares are way below their highs when it only applies to a specific market.

Gold price and inflation seems to be something commonly ignored for some reason.

Ark_Welder

DiggerUK wrote: »

Also, some odd information about inflation here.
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This is more fun and a lot prettier...

DiggerUK

jimjames wrote: »

"Maybe for the UK market as a whole measured by FTSE100 - although taking dividends into account most will not have lost money even in the FTSE."

Gold price and inflation seems to be something commonly ignored for some reason.

gtub2000,
Problem is, that most dividends from equity investments are taken when you cash in. With most dividends re invested, it is the capital value in the end game that counts. Providing there is a capital value that keeps you ahead of inflation of course.
The world situation is not encouraging from were I am sitting. You need to make your own call.

The NSI IL option does cover you against inflation shortfall, and gold never becomes worthless. Only argument over safety of gold is about it preserving your purchasing power in time. My calculations show it does that in spades.
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DiggerUK

Ark_Welder wrote: »

This is more fun and a lot prettier...

And the children are happy and smiling, not rioting. :T
..._

masonic

DiggerUK wrote: »

Only argument over safety of gold is about it preserving your purchasing power in time. My calculations show it does that in spades.
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If you treat gold as a preserver of wealth, I don't know you rationalise the fact it has increased in value by over 400% in 8 or so years where inflation over the same period has been around 30-40%. It seems to me gold, at it's current price, is likely to lose you a lot more money than equities if you invest now.

MoneySaverLog

Gold becomes worthless....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rip_Van_Winkle_Caper

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

gadgetmind

brasso wrote: »

I sold almost all the equities in my SIPP at the end of last week.

Sell low.

I'll aim to buy back in when the longer term indicators are more stable.

Buy high.

If it's all the same to you, I'll try hard to avoid this strategy.

gadgetmind

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The past is no guide to future performance.

True, but if a company has a decade plus history of reliable dividend payments, then it's a good candidate for future success.

Look at the constituents of the FTSE 100 just 25 years ago. Where are many of them now?

Merged, demerged, rebranded, and in a small number of cases, totally gone.

However, I bought some PEPs a couple of decades ago and put in enough money into a carelessly chosen mix of funds to buy a tatty second hand car. These were in the high fee hands of St James Place for just over a decade and Skandia for the last seven years, with the move costing 5% in bid offer spread. No further money has been added, and the funds have gone through turbulent times, but there is now enough in there to buy a brand new 7 series BMW.

I'd call this keeping up with inflation, wouldn't you?