MSE News: 'Don't panic', investors are told, amid market slump

jamesd

cepheus wrote: »

I did read the pdf and not blindly copied it, the URL is distorted because I have copied it several times myself.

Thanks for the correction, revised my post.

cepheus wrote: »

This subject is fraught with difficulty including the start and end years. I recall another study by First Boston but have been unable to find it.

Yes, it is. It's one reason why I like the Pensions Commission values for various holding durations, because that goes a lon way towards eliminating issues with start and end points, particularly for long term investors using regular investment.

cepheus wrote: »

Isn't the CPI and RPI a uniquely British definition?

No, both quite widely used, with CPI in particular used for international comparisons.

cepheus wrote: »

The more fundamental flaw with the other studies is that people tend to focus on successful markets and forget about the failed ones, therefore there is a survivorship bias.

True, though I do wonder how avoidable those are, given that failing economies are, like failing funds, likely to have a lot of investors who have already left, reducing the amount of capital that is invested in a dog.

cepheus wrote: »

Thanks for the link, although it would have been useful to include some reference to avoid trawling through it.

Figure C.10 was my attempt at that and the one I quoted from.

SnowMan wrote: »

Interestingly the Barclays Equity Gilt Study for 2011 has been made available on the Barclays stockbrokers website here. Chapter 6 has the real return figures. Strange as they normally charge £100 for the report.

Thanks! Last one of those I have is the 2007 edition.

le_loup

SnowMan wrote: »

Strange as they normally charge £100 for the report.

They have been free on the internet for some years now.

DiggerUK

Reaper wrote: »

...
Gold miners may be worth a look as they have fallen too (particularly the juniors) and there seems to be a growing gap between the performance of the gold price and the miners who extract it.....
What do you reckon digger, or do you stay clear of all shares?

I do stay away from everything bar NSI IL, physical gold and readies in Cash ISA.
If any body wants physical ETF's, or gold exposed funds, I'd say go for it, if equity type investments are what you like. Not my speciality at all though.
..._

max11

Hi guys,
sorry for the newbie question.

If I think markets will go down, why should not I sell and then buy again when (I think) they are going up?

lisyloo

If I think markets will go down, why should not I sell and then buy again when (I think) they are going up?

Because there is a risk you could be wrong.
You might sell at a low and then they go up.
You might never be able to buy back in as cheap.

Ideally you are right, if you had a crystal ball you'd sell high and buy low, but trying to time it is risky.

max11

Thanks for that.
So, if you have long term horizon, you normally watch them going down and just buy more shares/funds when you think they are underpriced. is that your approach?

dunstonh

So, if you have long term horizon, you normally watch them going down and just buy more shares/funds when you think they are underpriced. is that your approach?

Nothing wrong with that approach. Often you make more that way than trying to guess (usually wrongly). However, you can use the volatility to rebalance and take advantage that way.

jimjames

max11 wrote: »

Thanks for that.
So, if you have long term horizon, you normally watch them going down and just buy more shares/funds when you think they are underpriced. is that your approach?

In one word - yes!

You won't always get in right though, RBS anyone?

kar999

Mondays markets should be interesting.

FRANKFURT | Sun Aug 7, 2011 10:55pm BST

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank said on Sunday it would "actively implement" its controversial bond-buying programme to fight the euro zone's debt crisis, signalling it will buy Spanish and Italian government bonds to halt financial market contagion.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/uk-crisis-ecb-idUKTRE7762PG20110807

cepheus

Of course all these estimates of future growth assume that we will be able to economically grow indefinitely. What happens if the world economy has fundamentally changed, since our finite resources may limit growth? Perhaps commodity investments have become just as important as shares or bonds?

Who Killed Economic Growth? A Postcarbon Institute Video on the Global Ponzi Scheme

By Joe Romm on Aug 3, 2011 at 7:29 am
Hint: It had nothing to do with the debt, a frame which Obama has foolishly bought into and reinforced.