Average Rent soars to £876, up 2% in 3 months...

geneer

Rinoa wrote: »

There you go again. Fudging the issue just as I said you would.

If your confused. Allow me to clarify.

geneer wrote: »

What Hamish, yourself, and numerous others try to do on a regular basis is infer that the national average is more meaningful and all encompassing than it actually is.

It patently is not. This has been pointed out on numerous occasions. So I will say it again....I can only conclude that by insisting on making such statements, you are deliberately setting out to misinterperet and mislead.

And your genius response.

Rinoa wrote: »

we know why you don't like the national averages. It's because they say what you don't want to hear i.e. prices stabilising. You'd rather hide behind individual towns and geographical areas where you'll always be able to fudge the issue and find the odd exception to the rule.

:rotfl:Self awareness of a rock.

Hiding behind minor geographical areas encompassing, what? 2/3rds of the country. Whatever!

heathcote123

Geneer, your thread over at the other place is pretty interesting, I think it deserves an airing here as well, where there are people.

geneer wrote:

Simplistic assesment, but telling.

Was it better to buy at peak, or wait a few years for the crash.
Certain bulls claimed you would still be better of buying at peak.

So lets assume 6.54% SVR over the mortgage term.
This being the average of the last 11 years (excluding the last 3 of the emergency base rate era).

Buy a £150000 house in 2007. You will pay a total of £304969 over 25 years.


Wait a few years for a 20% fall in house prices.
For a 120000 mortgage you will pay 243975. Combine that with saving in capital sum, and you've saved £80994. Nice!

A saving which will cover 11.2 years of rent (assuming rents of around 600PCM).

So there you have it. Waiting a few years for reduced prices does in fact result in significant savings.

Kind of obvious really, but some people just wont listen.

Theres lots of bits that are debatable there, but how do you figure that capital sum bit? - I don't really get it?

Rinoa

geneer wrote: »

If your confused. Allow me to clarify.
And your genius response.


:rotfl:Self awareness of a rock.

Hiding behind minor geographical areas encompassing, what? 2/3rds of the country. Whatever!

The averages are the averages, easy to see why you want to discredit them. Who shall we believe Land Registry, Nationwide, or geneer. Hmmm, thats a toughie.

geneer

Rinoa wrote: »

The averages are the averages, easy to see why you want to discredit them. Who shall we believe Land Registry, Nationwide, or geneer. Hmmm, thats a toughie.

Yes. The averages are the averages.
Just like they were in the last honest to goodness crash.

So lets pretend that all houses every where rise and fall by the same value, and that london isn't making a nonsense of the whole thing eh. :rotfl:
Because, y'know, Rinoa insists we should.

Sorry. Context and analysis Columbo.
You might wish to pretend it doesn't exist. But it does.

So I'll say it again......I can only conclude that by insisting on making such statements, you are deliberately setting out to misinterperet and mislead.

Your bizarre seeming insistence that we can only talk about the blunt uk average, without digging a little deeper just highlights the truth of my observation.

Generali

Rinoa wrote: »

The averages are the averages, easy to see why you want to discredit them. Who shall we believe Land Registry, Nationwide, or geneer. Hmmm, thats a toughie.

Land Registry YoY down 2.5%
Nationwide YoY down 0.4%
HBOS/Halifax YoY down 3.5%

The averages are presenting a very consistent picture. House prices are gently drifting downwards in nominal terms. With inflation as it is at the moment that means falls of 0.5% or so per month in real terms.

With base rates at all time lows, most people with mortgages will be doing well overall as the cost of ownership has fallen along with prices and to a large degree these will be offset against each other. Any BTL landlord with large borrowings is likely to be making out like a bandit.

Now would be a great time to be in the HMO business I suspect, especially anywhere commutable to a lot of work (eg London, Edinburgh) as long as you are looking for yield rather than capital growth.

Percy1983

Rinoa wrote: »

Everyone requires shelter, and there isn't so much of it to go round these days. There is always scope for people to economise in other areas, maybe they could start with their 50" plasma TV's or £40 per month Blackberrys.

I only have a 40" LCD and a £6.80 per month HTC.

I must be in poverty.

ukcarper

Percy1983 wrote: »

I only have a 40" LCD and a £6.80 per month HTC.

I must be in poverty.

Where does that leave me 37 inch LCD and crappy old nokia pay as you go and I’m one of those babyboomers.

Rinoa

Generali wrote: »

Land Registry YoY down 2.5%
Nationwide YoY down 0.4%
HBOS/Halifax YoY down 3.5%

The averages are presenting a very consistent picture. House prices are gently drifting downwards in nominal terms. With inflation as it is at the moment that means falls of 0.5% or so per month in real terms.

YoY data masks an improving picture since the start of the year.

And referring to 'real term' falls, without considering the 'real term' falls in outstanding mortgage balances, distorts the true picture.

Generali

Rinoa wrote: »

YoY data masks an improving picture since the start of the year.

I'm very suspicious of monthly data, it's too noisy. Just look at that circa 3% monthly fall in the Halifax average last year. It looks to me like the indices are settling into a pattern of a very slow fall, flat really.

Having said that I'm very nervy about the economy at the moment. Everything is starting to feel a bit too 2008ish for my liking.

Rinoa wrote: »

And referring to 'real term' falls, without considering the 'real term' falls in outstanding mortgage balances, distorts the true picture.

That's a good point and as I said later in my post the costs of ownership of housing are cheap right now: mortgages are cheap in absolute terms and also I would imagine that it's cheap to get a builder in right now for maintenance etc.

Still I suspect that any growth in real (inflation adjusted) house prices is a long way off. That's just speculation though and time will tell as ever.

Rinoa

geneer wrote: »

Yes. The averages are the averages.
Just like they were in the last honest to goodness crash.

So lets pretend that all houses every where rise and fall by the same value, and that london isn't making a nonsense of the whole thing eh. :rotfl:
Because, y'know, Rinoa insists we should.

Sorry. Context and analysis Columbo.
You might wish to pretend it doesn't exist. But it does.

So I'll say it again......I can only conclude that by insisting on making such statements, you are deliberately setting out to misinterperet and mislead.

Your bizarre seeming insistence that we can only talk about the blunt uk average, without digging a little deeper just highlights the truth of my observation.

We know you want to pretend prices aren't rising. Maybe it's because you predicted a 8.9% fall for the average national house price for 2011.

You were obviously happy with national averages when you made your prediction. I wonder what's changed.