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Debate House Prices
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Average Rent soars to £876, up 2% in 3 months...
Comments
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If you cherry-pick data and don't seasonally adjust or adjust for inflation you can prove pretty much anything. Since October 2007 for example, nominal house prices (measured by Nationwide) are down 10.3%. If you prefer to keep currency as a constant and measure in real terms (as I do) then prices are down over 20%.
Picking either period proves nothing except the ability to pick numbers off a chart.
The indices are seasonally adjusted, and even in 'real terms' they would still be up this past 2 years. Certainly prices have not been affected by lack of mortgage availability as many on here suggested they would be.
I agree that everyone requires shelter but I don't read tales of people screaming for shelter. People could economise in other areas or then not of course. Many people feel that they 'need' Sky TV for example. I rented a cheaper house in my 20s so I could afford Sky TV on Sunday afternoons for example. That doesn't make me a good or bad person, just a homo economicus.
I too doubt they are screaming for shelter, but as you confirm, they do have flexibility to pay more and reduce spending in other areas.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
Mortgages are not being 'rationed'.
Don't be an idiot......
A survey of chartered surveyors said that potential buyers were still being put off by economic worries and continued mortgage rationing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13760176
Mortgage rationing, which has depressed UK property sales, will stay in force until at least the end of 2012, the CML says.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13620099
the rationing of mortgage funds by lenders are attributed to the general stagnation of the market.
http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/240338/5/Industry_in_depth/House_prices_still_sliding.htm
One factor weighing on the market has been the continued rationing of mortgage funds by lenders
http://www.vanguardngr.com%2F2011%2F05%2Fuk-housing-market-still-lacklustre%2F
And finally, from the CML themselves, who readily accept that the UK mortgage market is "dysfunctional".....
.In our view, the key point about UK mortgage and housing markets is that they remain dysfunctional, and are not effectively meeting the needs of consumers.
What is really needed is a sufficient flow of mortgage lending to allow those who can fulfil their financial commitments to move home in response to their changing circumstances if they want to, and for first-time buyers to realise their reasonable aspirations to become home-owners.
Anyway.....Is the population 'soaring'? Source please.
Up 470,000 last year, and 408,000 the year before.
And the growth rate is accelerating....
The population of the UK was 62,262,000 in mid-2010. This is an increase of 470,000 (0.8 per cent) on mid-2009.
Population growth has increased over recent decades; this latest increase compares with an average annual growth of 0.6 per cent since 2001; 0.3 per cent per year between 1991 and 2001; and 0.2 per cent per year between 1981 and 1991.
Changes in births, deaths and the pattern of international migration have all contributed to population change. The chart shows the contribution of natural change (the difference between births and deaths) and net migration (the difference between long term migration into and out of the UK) to population growth.
Natural change was the largest contributor to population growth until the year to mid-1999 and more recently between the years to mid-2008 and mid-2010. Between these periods, net migration was the main driver of population change. In the year to mid-2002, net migration accounted for 70 per cent of the total population change.
Since 2002, natural change has accounted for an increasing proportion of total population change; in the year to mid-2010 it accounted for just over half of total population growth (52 per cent).
Oh, and there's your source.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=950“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
The indices are seasonally adjusted, and even in 'real terms' they would still be up this past 2 years. Certainly prices have not been affected by lack of mortgage availability as many on here suggested they would be.
Whether wilfully or because I phrased myself badly, you misunderstand my point.
My point is as below:
Take time period 1. Nominal house prices have risen x%. Argument A is demonstrated
Take time period 2. Nominal house prices have fallen y%. Argument B is demonstrated.
If you take a specific time period you can demonstrate that house prices in nominal terms have risen or fallen. I hope that is a little clearer for you.
The reason for why prices may have risen or fallen I leave for you to speculate,I too doubt they are screaming for shelter, but as you confirm, they do have flexibility to pay more and reduce spending in other areas.
Absolutely right. Equally of course people could choose to pay less on housing and more on other essentials such as iPhones, Sky, utilities or food.
I rent at present and could pay more rent but I like to eat well so choose to pay a little less. I could afford to drive a better car or have a second car and eat less well. I could afford a bottle of excellent whisky every night and sleep in a cardboard box.
You pays yer money and takes yer choice. Life isn't all about the house you live in. I'd rather live in a slum with my wonderful wife and kids than in a mansion alone. Hopefully I'll end up in a mansion with Mrs Generali but I'm not bothered if I don't.0 -
Mortgages have been restricted for a few years, but this hasn't prevented house prices rising 13% or so since early 2009.
You mean "average" house prices.
This has been much discussed, you have been involved in the same, and the inherent problems with that generalised statement should, by now, be obvious.
I can only conclude that my insisting on making such statements,
you are deliberately setting out to misinterperet and mislead.
Which is, really, quite pathetic.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The average monthly rent in June was £876, the highest average price on record as rents rose 2% in just three months, according to the latest rental index from FindaProperty.com.
The jump in rental yields follows a period of rapid rental price growth, which has seen average UK rents increase by 2% in three months and they are now 4.4% up compared to this time last year.
So rent increases not keeping up with inflation then.
0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Ouch.
Context and analysis.
The Graham and Geneer show doesn't handle that very well.
Yes. Context and Analysis. Good stuff.
For example a quite persusal of Hamishes findaproperty site
http://www.findaproperty.com/rental-index.aspx
shows that rents are actually falling quite briskly in all areas except london and its neighbours.0 -
Whether wilfully or because I phrased myself badly, you misunderstand my point.
My point is as below:
Take time period 1. Nominal house prices have risen x%. Argument A is demonstrated
Take time period 2. Nominal house prices have fallen y%. Argument B is demonstrated.
If you take a specific time period you can demonstrate that house prices in nominal terms have risen or fallen. I hope that is a little clearer for you.
My point was that house prices have risen during a period where mortgage availability has been severely restricted.
If you want to find ways in which a 13% rise is not a rise really, that's your prerogative. If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0
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