Thinking of buying gold bars !!

King_Of_Bling

Ark_Welder wrote: »

Perhaps performing a little bit of adequate research into central bank gold sales would inform you that Switzerland sold almost three times the amount of gold that the UK did, and did so around the same time.

Did they? I didn't realise that. So Calamity Brown wasn't just a one man band running amuck with OUR gold reserves.

King_Of_Bling

Ade67 wrote: »

Hi all,

In response to a the original request for good suppliers, I have recently used bullionbypost.co.uk

YES, i use them. But, they have sold out of a lot of bars & coins until first or second week into Sept.

Ark_Welder

King_Of_Bling wrote: »

Did they? I didn't realise that. So Calamity Brown wasn't just a one man band running amuck with OUR gold reserves.

There were a number of central banks that sold down their gold reserves in the early 2000's. Brown's mistake was to announce the timings beforehand. UK sold 395 tonnes. Switzerland have sold between 1100 and 1300 tonnes - mostly before 2005 (I see conflicting information about the amounts and haven't gotten to something conclusive yet.)

JoungandNaive

Well, Gold's price is sky-rocketed 1.763 $. So I would say it is a pretty good choice to invest in that and when there are signs that the bubble is going to burst sell it !!

Geoff23

JoungandNaive wrote: »

Well, Gold's price is sky-rocketed 1.763 $. So I would say it is a pretty good choice to invest in that and when there are signs that the bubble is going to burst sell it !!

That's a dangerous game to play. What makes you think you'll be able to tell when this "bubble" is going to burst?

Down over 5% today, apparently because people don't think Helicopter Ben is going to announce QE3 on Friday. We are back down to where we were on August 15th. Should be interesting to see what happens next.

Masomnia

Geoff23 wrote: »

That's a dangerous game to play. What makes you think you'll be able to tell when this "bubble" is going to burst?

Down over 5% today, apparently because people don't think Helicopter Ben is going to announce QE3 on Friday. We are back down to where we were on August 15th. Should be interesting to see what happens next.

Exactly. People worry about inflation at 4% over a whole year, gold has fallen by much more than that over a single day. Very risky asset, and not for those who don't know what they're doing.

My worry is that a lot of novice investors are going to lose a lot of money over the next few years.

QE3, well, with treasury yields as low as they are there's not too much point.

Geoff23

Masomnia wrote: »

Exactly. People worry about inflation at 4% over a whole year, gold has fallen by much more than that over a single day. Very risky asset, and not for those who don't know what they're doing.

My worry is that a lot of novice investors are going to lose a lot of money over the next few years.

QE3, well, with treasury yields as low as they are there's not too much point.

I suspect that a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money over the next few years pretty much whatever they do. For any short-term speculator, all markets are dangerous right now - stock market, foreign exchange, commodities, precious metals...they are all bouncing about all over the place with these wild swings based on not much more than a rumour about what's going on in Helicopter Ben's head. Plus as you suggest, it isn't obvious what the effect of QE3 would be even if it was announced.

I watch the short-term fluctuations in the price of gold and silver with fascination, but I wouldn't want to predict where it will be at the end of Friday's trading. Right now I can imagine it being anywhere between £950 and £1150 per ounce.

I think you should only buy gold if you are convinced that the western nations that are currently drowning in debt are not going to be able to get that debt under control without devaluation/default. I just can't see how the US, the UK or most of the eurozone can ever pay off those debts, and long-term that can only mean gold goes higher.

ncollier1

Gold goes up and down in the short term but only north in the long term. While gold is gold, the price is artificial. Most of the gold trades have nothing whatsoever to do with physical gold. Most of the so called gold market is futures contracts, options, gold funds which leverage, spreadbetting/ CFDs (ie. one punter matched against another).

lvader

Geoff23 wrote: »

I think you should only buy gold if you are convinced that the western nations that are currently drowning in debt are not going to be able to get that debt under control without devaluation/default. I just can't see how the US, the UK or most of the eurozone can ever pay off those debts, and long-term that can only mean gold goes higher.

Long term debt isn't really an issue, it's the large dificits that some countries are struggling to get under control that is the issue. Japan's debt is 200% of GDP, much higher that pretty much all other countries, but it's not really seen as a problem.

Geoff23

lvader wrote: »

Long term debt isn't really an issue, it's the large dificits that some countries are struggling to get under control that is the issue. Japan's debt is 200% of GDP, much higher that pretty much all other countries, but it's not really seen as a problem.

I thought the reason Japan's debt isn't seen as such of a problem is that most of it is internal. If Japan were to default it would mainly be Japanese people who lost money, so there's a lot less risk of direct contagion. Japan's debt doesn't seem to post quite such a systemic risk as that of the other countries who are in trouble.