Thinking of buying gold bars !!

Geoff23

lvader wrote: »

In the last 2 years how much gold has the Chinese government bought compared to US and European debt? It seems to me that like the late 70's most of gold is being bought by private/comercial buyers.

I think the Chinese government is trying to buy as much as possible without causing a panic. It is also encouraging the Chinese people to buy gold.

Geoff23

masonic wrote: »

I'm not suggesting any sort of comparison between now and the 1980s. I'm merely correcting the person who said that over the long term the gold price only moves upward. However, supposing the current debt crises eventually get brought under control, we might see a similar decline in the future.

I agree with those statements. I just don't personally believe the debt can be brought under control. Ultimately, this isn't about economics for me. It is about the global resources/population problem. I have a very close friend who has a PhD in economics, and I have the same debate with her. She thinks this is just a very bad economic problem. I think it ultimately comes down to physics.

Ark_Welder

I think this thread is (another that is) moving towards being more appropriate for the Debate forum than the Savings and Investments forum.

bendix

i love you gold bugs. I really do. You're like the simple-minded religious zealouts one sees on tv documentaries about American happy clappy churches.

If the price of gold soars, you come on here boasting and celebrating and saying how smart you are. If it falls (and a US$170 fall in three days is close to a 9% pullback) you similarly come on here celebrating because now you can buy some more of the shiny stuff.

Geoff23

bendix wrote: »

i love you gold bugs. I really do. You're like the simple-minded religious zealouts one sees on tv documentaries about American happy clappy churches.

That could not be further from the truth. The goldbugs are the hard realists.

If the price of gold soars, you come on here boasting and celebrating and saying how smart you are.

I don't actually recall anybody doing that.

If it falls (and a US$170 fall in three days is close to a 9% pullback) you similarly come on here celebrating because now you can buy some more of the shiny stuff.

Correct, unless the person in question has already bought as much as they think it is sensible to hold.

If you believe there are fundamental, structural problems with the existing global economic/monetary system, which are the long-term result of the collapse of Bretton Woods and the introduction of purely fiat money, then betting on gold to go up long-term is a complete no-brainer.

Ark_Welder

Geoff23 wrote: »

If you believe there are fundamental, structural problems with the existing global economic/monetary system, which are the long-term result of the collapse of Bretton Woods and the introduction of purely fiat money, then betting on gold to go up long-term is a complete no-brainer.

However, If you believe there are fundamental, structural problems with the existing global economic/monetary system, which are the long-term result of a lack of appropriate regulation and too much credit then betting on more regulation and a reduction of credit availability is more sensible

Geoff23

Ark_Welder wrote: »

However, If you believe there are fundamental, structural problems with the existing global economic/monetary system, which are the long-term result of a lack of appropriate regulation and too much credit then betting on more regulation and a reduction of credit availability is more sensible

That's not an either/or. I believe both.

sabretoothtigger

most of gold is being bought by private/comercial buyers.

People on forums or newspaper tips, etc are not moving the gold price. The majority of this forum has no idea why the price is rising or any interest in buying some.
Thats what made the silver threads so pointless, nobody really gives a dam


The price is rising because its more in demand and its being used by central banks. India, China, Russia and recently Korea and I presume others also have a use but its central banks who hold for decades. You can ignore all others as speculators as they will sell in 5 years or less I imagine.

Just watch what countries are doing, less dollars more gold is all it takes to raise the year on year price and we are all spectators more then speculators in that process imo

Geoff23

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

People on forums or newspaper tips, etc are not moving the gold price. The majority of this forum has no idea why the price is rising or any interest in buying some.

That's not why they aren't moving the gold price. Even if two hundred people reading these threads went and bought some physical gold, it wouldn't make any difference to the price - not a noticeable difference anyway. The price is mostly determined by the traders of paper bullion and other non-physical instruments connected to gold. If a lot of people started buying physical gold it would eventually affect the price, but not on a daily basis.

Thats what made the silver threads so pointless, nobody really gives a dam[n]

I don't think these threads (about gold and silver) are pointless. People ought to give a damn. If they don't, then nobody is forcing them to read the threads.

The price is rising because its more in demand and its being used by central banks. India, China, Russia and recently Korea and I presume others also have a use but its central banks who hold for decades. You can ignore all others as speculators as they will sell in 5 years or less I imagine.

Just watch what countries are doing, less dollars more gold is all it takes to raise the year on year price and we are all spectators more then speculators in that process imo

I agree, to a certain extent. I think you are underestimating the importance of individual purchases of physical bullion historically in India, and more recently in China. The western world is only catching up now. We have been lulled into a false sense of security.

sabretoothtigger

People ought to give a damn

Yea but they dont because there is no problem right. All I see on troubles so far or in future is that there is a good chance Labour will win on policies like tax the rich and more regulation, the common thinking is no where near buying
gold.
Most people dont have alot of spare cash and they dont consider gold as a form of saving.
Housing and pensions, thats where people put cash and otherwise its spent and we know most of uk dont even save that much

So who is driving the gold price, usa doesnt save either and they dont care about saving gold. Selling old jewelry and maybe a few crackpots buy coins thats it

underestimating the importance of individual purchases of physical bullion historically in India, and more recently in China. The western world is only catching up now

No I do rate them if its held in increasing amounts and India has population growth and China wealth growth I guess. UK or the west come nowhere near to them, Ive never seen a popular tv, radio or even newspaper article on gold
I cant think of any mention by anyone famous, cant really remember the last news story. Maybe when it gets to 2k.
Someone should start a new thread, popular mentions of gold in the media. Not obscure internet stuff, front page of MSN maybe

We dont have the same attitude, we got tons more technology infrastructure and bits of plastic all over the place that make gold a joke or so it would seem.
In terms of mania or bubble sentiments, not even close and Im comparing it to the housing tv programs for what it would need to rank as dangerously popular

The price is mostly determined by the traders of paper bullion and other non-physical instruments connected to gold

traders means they buy then they sell just as much not that long after. Net effect is zero pressure on the price really.

Same argument as oil, 'driven up by speculators' Its one way somehow?
In both cases its people who use it who are really driving the price, oil especially because its destroyed but there it also has more immediate supply.
But in this case gold is being taken up by long term holders so that is massively significant, traders dont matter.

The CME margin hikes and the price fall show about how much they are in the price and Im certain that price isnt going to half. I gave up on a spike below 1000 a while ago, unfortunately I dont think that can happen without alot of good reasons to


I think golds usefulness, demand and price pressure is inverse to governments interference and manipulation.
If any of them do something sensible then be careful, really Im looking out for competitors as a global currency, which country is going to act that solid and be that universal and flexible.

Apparently there is no one able to issue paper of trusted value, maybe it could be Germany on leaving the euro so at present I'd nominate euro as a currency which doesnt do QE and is very big