My Interest rate gamble pays off again!

Graham_Devon

joe_blotts wrote: »

It means when someone is prepared/pre-disposed to make changes to their lifestyle, ways of thinking, investment strategie, spending habits, priorities etc etc in order to prosper when things change in their personal circumstances or changes occur in the wider economy that affect their life.

I'm just wondering how many of the bulls will cope when IRs go back up and things get difficult. Adapting is easy when things are going your way. That may not last however.

Indeed...I was asking renoman, because I'd assume that he would agree that adaptation also means selling to rent, holding out for house prices to fall, making the most of the current economy to plan to get something cheaper. Buying into shared ownership as you have to adapt your wants to fit your needs. Living with your parents for a while etc etc etc.

But he berates people who do this.

So I wasn't quite sure where he was coming from.

RenovationMan

joe_blotts wrote: »

It means when someone is prepared/pre-disposed to make changes to their lifestyle, ways of thinking, investment strategie, spending habits, priorities etc etc in order to prosper when things change in their personal circumstances or changes occur in the wider economy that affect their life.

I'm just wondering how many of the bulls will cope when IRs go back up and things get difficult. Adapting is easy when things are going your way. That may not last however.

Indeed, it was so obvious that I was completely confused why Devon was asking. Well, to be fair, if it was anyone else I would have thought they were being ironic, because it was so obvious, yet Devon is well known on here for being a financially challenged idiot of the first order. You should see the investment tactic he put into place when he dipped his toe into the stockmarket about 6 months ago... "Buy High, panic, sell low, moan about it!!". :rotfl::rotfl:

I'm not sure I understand your second point as the whole point of adapting is that you change your approach when the situation changes. If the situation is not 'going your way', then you adapt and make the best of it.

If you mean 'Bulls' in the context given by this forum - Bulls and Bears are not permanent states anywhere else, they are viewpoints on a particular market at a particular point in time - I'd say that people on here should rather be grouped as 'optimists and pessimists' (Bulls being more optimistic than bears) and would say that it is well established in science that optimistic people adapt/survive far better than pessimistic people.

Optimists outperform pessimists on the job by as much as 50 percent. Which do you choose to be?

A 10-point T-score increase on the Optimism-Pessimism scale (e.g. more pessimistic) was associated with a 19% increase in risk of mortality.

Only optimists survive

and so on and so forth.

ILW

RenovationMan wrote: »

Indeed, it was so obvious that I was completely confused why Devon was asking. Well, to be fair, if it was anyone else I would have thought they were being ironic, because it was so obvious, yet Devon is well known on here for being a financially challenged idiot of the first order. You should see the investment tactic he put into place when he dipped his toe into the stockmarket about 6 months ago... "Buy High, panic, sell low, moan about it!!". :rotfl::rotfl:

I'm not sure I understand your second point as the whole point of adapting is that you change your approach when the situation changes. If the situation is not 'going your way', then you adapt and make the best of it.

If you mean 'Bulls' in the context given by this forum - Bulls and Bears are not permanent states anywhere else, they are viewpoints on a particular market at a particular point in time - I'd say that people on here should rather be grouped as 'optimists and pessimists' (Bulls being more optimistic than bears) and would say that it is well established in science that optimistic people adapt/survive far better than pessimistic people.

Optimists outperform pessimists on the job by as much as 50 percent. Which do you choose to be?

A 10-point T-score increase on the Optimism-Pessimism scale (e.g. more pessimistic) was associated with a 19% increase in risk of mortality.

Only optimists survive

and so on and so forth.

Surely the optimist - pessimist connection between property bulls and bears is mainly dependent upon whether you currently own or not.

Cannot see a direct connection beyond individual circumstances.

Would you be considered an optimist if you thought fuel prices were going to rise?

RenovationMan

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Indeed...I was asking renoman, because I'd assume that he would agree that adaptation also means selling to rent, holding out for house prices to fall, making the most of the current economy to plan to get something cheaper. Buying into shared ownership as you have to adapt your wants to fit your needs. Living with your parents for a while etc etc etc.

But he berates people who do this.

So I wasn't quite sure where he was coming from.

I think you have the completely wrong idea about adaption if you thing you should sell your home and move into rented accomodation every time you get bearish about a particular market. The idea is evolution, not revolution and as such will more than likely end in disaster. The idea is to adapt so that you can maintain and perhaps improve your standard of living and lifestyle, not to completely change it (possibly for the worse).

As to the other points you made, you're simply twisting the truth or blatently lying. I don't have a problem with shared ownership#1, I don't have a problem with people living with parents (did it myself while I saved for a deposit) and I don't have a problem with holding out for a particular market to fall before buying in (did it myself with the stockmarket). What I do have a problem with (and this is the adaptability bit, so take note) is when people base these decisons on a demi-religious 'faith' and 'belief' structure instead of looking objectively at the market and acting accordingly.

#1. Shared ownership is a valid way of getting onto the housing ladder for people on low pay or in areas that have high prices. A friend of mine has a 50% share in a house in London (Zone1) and could not have acquired the house in any other circumstances. What I do have a problem with is your disingenuousness when you say that you are a 'Property owning bear' who wants to see a housing crash 'for the good of the country', when actually its for the good of you as your own losses are halved during a crash and you could buy the other half of your property much cheaper.

RenovationMan

ILW wrote: »

Surely the optimist - pessimist connection between property bulls and bears is mainly dependent upon whether you currently own or not.

Cannot see a direct connection beyond individual circumstances.

Would you be considered an optimist if you thought fuel prices were going to rise?

I'm not sure what your point is about fuel rises, I certainly haven't seen 'Bulls' or 'Bears' on this forum cheering those on?

As to the rest; thrugelmir, Devon, Shortchanged and other (self-named) 'Bears' all own homes and are pessimists, Devon and Shortchanged especially.

If you can't concede that generally speaking the people who would describe themselves as 'Bears' are pessimistic and post negative news stories and have a negative slant on any financial news and that people who describe themselves (or are described by others as in my case) as 'Bulls' are generally optimistic and post good news stories and put an optimistic slant on any financial news, then I'm staggered.

nollag2006

RenovationMan wrote: »

I have a tracker that is set to 2.5% over base rate for three years...

So far, so good!

Good to hear.

My main home is BOE base rate + 1.99% for the life of the mortgage, having come off a rate of BOE - 0.51% at the end of the crash in early 2009. (It was sweet to be paying negative interest for a few months).

It's not worth remortgaging at those rates, particularly as the next interest rate movement is more likely to be down than up

If interest rates ever rise, I would likely remortgage to a fix then. Given that my LTV has gone from 50% to about 25% over the past six years, I'd imagine I'd get a fairly healthy offer.

Thrugelmir

nollag2006 wrote: »

Good to hear.

Thought that the tracker ran out in 2013. :cool:

shortchanged_2

RenovationMan wrote: »

I'm not sure what your point is about fuel rises, I certainly haven't seen 'Bulls' or 'Bears' on this forum cheering those on?

As to the rest; thrugelmir, Devon, Shortchanged and other (self-named) 'Bears' all own homes and are pessimists, Devon and Shortchanged especially.

If you can't concede that generally speaking the people who would describe themselves as 'Bears' are pessimistic and post negative news stories and have a negative slant on any financial news and that people who describe themselves (or are described by others as in my case) as 'Bulls' are generally optimistic and post good news stories and put an optimistic slant on any financial news, then I'm staggered.

Thanks for your concerns Renoman.

However as I've told you before I wouldn't say I was a pessimist just a realist.
Yes I believe house prices are too high and need to come down so I suppose that classes me as a property bear.

Yes I have been very negative about the UK economy over the past few years but who has been proved correct? The UK has gone back into recession and looks like staying that way for some time.

All I can say is I call it as I see it. If I felt conditions were right for economic and house price growth I would say so. It's just as it stands this country is in the economic sh*t and I'm afraid I don't see the economic green shoots that some of the bulls are seeing at present.

RenovationMan

shortchanged wrote: »

However as I've told you before I wouldn't say I was a pessimist just a realist.

"A pessimist is someone who assumes the worst more often than not, if not all the time. Often times pessimists like to call themselves “realists”, but this is a facade; a realist would at least consider something good happening as being equally likely as something bad happening." - Carl Jung.

ILW

Why assume property bear = pessimist and property bull = optimist?
Where is the connection?