Solar Panel Guide Discussion

silverwhistle

I've only had one quote so far and they used the 25% figure.

I think everybody has to consider their own circumstances though. I'm semi retired, and if I go on holiday it will be in the winter as I'm a keen skier. I'd hope to use more than 25%. As it happens my gas hob has just been condemned - [the tenant was probably boiling acid on it, or something, considering the other things that need doing according to the HA - when I get to see it I hope I don't cry]. That has hastened my decision to go for an induction hob. Plus I have a tank, so during the summer months I'll be able to give the gas boiler a rest completely, not even have it inefficiently working for hot water and hopefully extend its life. Even with water heating here in Italy I use less than 6 units a day, so I'm generally a low user, but will be getting a dishwasher and small chest freezer which will increase my usage.

My ISA has been yielding less than 1%, so all this talk about 3% compounded is irrelevant and I'd rather get some assets for my money. Given I live abroad at the moment I'm only too aware of the asset inflation and depreciating nature of sterling as a result of QE..

Sirlaughalot

Some great info here chaps well done to you all!
All the salesman i have spoken to, bar none, continue to misled on the future savings front Most of them quote energy prices rising at 15% one salesman asked me to put in my own assumed energy inflation figure he even had me at it i chose 12 % (What a nice man that salesman!!).
If i have this right the only part of the energy saving calculations which relates to real energy price inflation would be the actual electic savings made during the day. Using immersun technolgy and timers as in my case, how would this effect the pay back figures assuming i`m looking at electric savings of £150 per annum.

Thanks

SL

John_Pierpoint

silverwhistle wrote: »

I've only had one quote so far and they used the 25% figure.

I think everybody has to consider their own circumstances though. I'm semi retired, and if I go on holiday it will be in the winter as I'm a keen skier. I'd hope to use more than 25%. As it happens my gas hob has just been condemned - [the tenant was probably boiling acid on it, or something, considering the other things that need doing according to the HA - when I get to see it I hope I don't cry]. That has hastened my decision to go for an induction hob.

Have you included the costs of current pots and pans that probably won't be suitable for the new hob?

Martyn1981

Sirlaughalot wrote: »

All the salesman i have spoken to, bar none, continue to misled on the future savings front Most of them quote energy prices rising at 15% one salesman asked me to put in my own assumed energy inflation figure he even had me at it i chose 12 % (What a nice man that salesman!!).

This gets tricky. Energy prices have risen fast, and are probably going to keep rising for a few years. Restrictions on coal might push prices up, as coal is the cheapest source of energy. Also subsidies for off-shore wind are higher than for on-shore, but the NIMBY's don't want to look at 'windflowers' in the distance. Then we have nuclear subsidies shifting from general taxation to leccy bills as and when and if a reactor ever gets built.

So, it's reasonable to assume some large rises. But ..... and this is a big but. They can't keep rising, and not for 20 years, so some sort of rational, long term averaging is needed, rather than compounding 10+% for 20 years. Also there has to be a limit, a natural cap, since prices can never really go higher than off-shore wind (since free fuel) or nuclear (high infrastructure cost, but low fuel cost), or even coal with CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) (relatively abundant amounts of cheap fuel, 'IF' CCS doesn't cost too much).

Sirlaughalot wrote: »

If i have this right the only part of the energy saving calculations which relates to real energy price inflation would be the actual electic savings made during the day.

Yes, with a slight caveat. Though not energy savings, energy prices will push up general inflation, and FIT (& export) rates are index linked. So income will be pushed up via the energy price's impact on inflation.

Sirlaughalot wrote: »

Using immersun technolgy and timers as in my case, how would this effect the pay back figures assuming i`m looking at electric savings of £150 per annum.

Thanks

SL

Not sure I understand. Are you thinking that leccy savings will be more if you use timers? If so, then yes, that'll help, but the immersun (or other type of intelligent switch) would save on your water heating. If that's already leccy, then it'll help a lot. If it's gas, then each PV kWh may displace 1.25 gas kWh's, which depending on your tariff may be somewhere between 4p to 6p (very rough estimate).

This is only a 'saving' as export is simply deemed at 50%, so if you use it all, you don't get paid any less, so it appears 'free'. But if smart metering comes along, then you might stop getting the 4.64p for the exported unit, negating most of the saving. Also, before you can consider these 'extra' savings from your PV system, you'll have to account for the cost of the switch, perhaps £250 to £450 installed(?)

If all the numbers seem too marginal to you, then take your time, there is no rush. The current FIT rate will stand for 3 months, and will only degress if installs exceed 100MWp in a 3 month period. Presumably the 1/10/13 review will be based on the installs during May and June, an artificially shortened qtr, so I might be able to find out what the October rate is. I'll have a look.

Also, there is a tiny chance that something will get sorted with the EU v's China war, and prices might come back down a bit. But don't hold your breath. Article here starts of promising, but to me, sounds less promising towards the end!

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/eu-trade-case--short-term-compromise-becomes-evident_100011935/#axzz2YHI1bzHB

[I genuinely thought this was going to be a short reply ]

Mart.

Sirlaughalot

Martyn1981 wrote: »

This gets tricky. Energy prices have risen fast, and are probably going to keep rising for a few years. Restrictions on coal might push prices up, as coal is the cheapest source of energy. Also subsidies for off-shore wind are higher than for on-shore, but the NIMBY's don't want to look at 'windflowers' in the distance. Then we have nuclear subsidies shifting from general taxation to leccy bills as and when and if a reactor ever gets built.

So, it's reasonable to assume some large rises. But ..... and this is a big but. They can't keep rising, and not for 20 years, so some sort of rational, long term averaging is needed, rather than compounding 10+% for 20 years. Also there has to be a limit, a natural cap, since prices can never really go higher than off-shore wind (since free fuel) or nuclear (high infrastructure cost, but low fuel cost), or even coal with CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) (relatively abundant amounts of cheap fuel, 'IF' CCS doesn't cost too much).



Yes, with a slight caveat. Though not energy savings, energy prices will push up general inflation, and FIT (& export) rates are index linked. So income will be pushed up via the energy price's impact on inflation.



Not sure I understand. Are you thinking that leccy savings will be more if you use timers? If so, then yes, that'll help, but the immersun (or other type of intelligent switch) would save on your water heating. If that's already leccy, then it'll help a lot. If it's gas, then each PV kWh may displace 1.25 gas kWh's, which depending on your tariff may be somewhere between 4p to 6p (very rough estimate).

This is only a 'saving' as export is simply deemed at 50%, so if you use it all, you don't get paid any less, so it appears 'free'. But if smart metering comes along, then you might stop getting the 4.64p for the exported unit, negating most of the saving. Also, before you can consider these 'extra' savings from your PV system, you'll have to account for the cost of the switch, perhaps £250 to £450 installed(?)

If all the numbers seem too marginal to you, then take your time, there is no rush. The current FIT rate will stand for 3 months, and will only degress if installs exceed 100MWp in a 3 month period. Presumably the 1/10/13 review will be based on the installs during May and June, an artificially shortened qtr, so I might be able to find out what the October rate is. I'll have a look.

Also, there is a tiny chance that something will get sorted with the EU v's China war, and prices might come back down a bit. But don't hold your breath. Article here starts of promising, but to me, sounds less promising towards the end!

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/eu-trade-case--short-term-compromise-becomes-evident_100011935/#axzz2YHI1bzHB

[I genuinely thought this was going to be a short reply ]

Mart.

Just trying to find out if you should factor energy inflation into the leccy savings made during the day into your figures or are they accounted for anyway?

On a positive note i walked the dog round another part of the estate today and found another 4 properties with solar panels. All have 17 panels fitted in identical formation so i assume thay have been fitted by the same company. Will be knocking a few doors this afternoon to see if i can get some info on size and cost?

Thanks for the info on smart metering that could influence my decisions without a doubt.

SL

GwylimT

Our block of flats has a slanted roof purely for solar panels, I'm not sure how much money they make each year but it is used for maintenance and so we don't have to pay a service charge.

Martyn1981

Sirlaughalot wrote: »

Just trying to find out if you should factor energy inflation into the leccy savings made during the day into your figures or are they accounted for anyway?

SL

I can almost hear your brain spinning now, trying to think of every little detail!

Yep, have included inflation, but only as a 3% guesstimate. Basically I take the total income figure (FIT + Export + Leccy savings) and then increase that each year by 3% (compounded). It's only a guess, but hopefully reasonable. FIT and export are increased each year, index linked, and leccy savings are .... well ..... leccy savings, so will naturally react to energy price inflation. But for simplicity, all bundled together.

Mart.

Sirlaughalot

I think the leccy savings over 10 years @ 10% should make about £450 so that`s a bit more off the initial outlay/lowers the B/E point. The new buildings with 17 panels, as i suspect are rent a roof schemes so i`m no further forward i`m afraid.

SL

Cardew

Sirlaughalot wrote: »

If i have this right the only part of the energy saving calculations which relates to real energy price inflation would be the actual electic savings made during the day. Using immersun technolgy and timers as in my case, how would this effect the pay back figures assuming i`m looking at electric savings of £150 per annum.

Thanks

SL

IMO £150 in-house savings from a predicted generation of 2,649kWh is far too optimistic.

Electricity tariffs nearly all have a daily standing charge and electricity is available for between 11p/kWh and 12pkWh.

As explained above any electricity diverted by the immersun will need to be priced at the cost of gas/oil/economy 7 (so between 5p to 7p/kWh)

Fuel inflation at 10% I hope not!

Sirlaughalot

Cardew wrote: »

IMO £150 in-house savings from a predicted generation of 2,649kWh is far too optimistic.

Electricity tariffs nearly all have a daily standing charge and electricity is available for between 11p/kWh and 12pkWh.

As explained above any electricity diverted by the immersun will need to be priced at the cost of gas/oil/economy 7 (so between 5p to 7p/kWh)

Fuel inflation at 10% I hope not!

EST quote eleccy savings of £100 per annum so i don`t think an extra £50 per annum for the immersun looks rediculously high.

The global economy has just experienced the biggest drop in economy growth since the great deppression. In any downturn the normal pattern for energy prices is to go down since the financial crisis of 2008 fuel inflation has averaged 15% according to the figures i have been told.

With global growth expected to gather pass over the next 10 years the expectation would be for energy prices to rise on the basis of supply meeting demand especilly from the emerging markets/Asia. IMO i don`t think the 10% figure is pie in the sky infact i think it could be far higher.

So i`m comfortable with the calculations i`ve made the only reservations i have is the nuclear power/ fracking debate which if the industries prosper in the uk then energy prices could well fall like they have in the worlds biggest economy USA! But with crazy consultation and regulations rules any

SL