blimmey!... housing market 2007...

roswell

So dont worry there wont be a bubble till 2008 according to the BBC, I can see that now more and more people will be feeling pressured into panic buying in 2007 because 2007 wont be a bubble ....

Alan_M_2

mystic_trev wrote:

So much for my predictions, a slow down at the end of this year moving into reverse for 07. As has been pointed out, the VI's want to continue the party for as long as possible and Gordo would like to keep it going until the next election. One things for Certain -when the wheels (eventually) come off the Property market it 'aint going to be pretty. We thought the last crash was bad and that took eight years to recover,the next one will take decades.

My gut reaction tells me the same actually but I never failed to be surprised how far the goal posts can be moved in an attempt to stop this happening,

The recovery period will be no different though, it will always be one generation in time. The next generation of investors come along that will have no recollection of any previous bubble other than hearsay and old stories, yet the government statistics will show that no crash ever actually occurred (see numerous other thread re statistics), and finally of course it will be different this time (each time around).

This is what keeps the economic cycle cycling. No government can stop it, but they can dictate how far in each direction is will go (via the lenders).

wibble68_2

Alan_M wrote:

The thing with a 50 year mortgage is at end of term, the sum outstanding (assuming no further borrowing has been made) will be a small percentage of any value of the property, well that's the assumption.

Consider the value of a property you live in today 50 years ago, I'd be very very surprised if the total purchase price of the property was more than 2% of it's current value. Which in the grand scheme of things really is negligible.

So all the points you make above about funding old age and retirement would comfortably be covered any resulting equity in the property.

I see your point, but you can't really use the last 50 years to say that future debt will be eroded to a small percentage of current value.

Inflation is now 2.7%. There were times in the last 50 years that saw periods at 20% +.

Maybe the government will get away with using sky high house prices to support the economy, but I think it will be to the detriment of future generations.

roswell

It cant go on indefinately at some point the goal posts cant move any more and the goverment will have to give in to global inflation ... or change the basket some more,,, But the BBC say its ok till 2008 so we will all be OK ..

Alan_M_2

wibble68 wrote:

I see your point, but you can't really use the last 50 years to say that future debt will be eroded to a small percentage of current value.

Inflation is now 2.7%. There were times in the last 50 years that saw periods at 20% +.

Maybe the government will get away with using sky high house prices to support the economy, but I think it will be to the detriment of future generations.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's an appalling idea, I just wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see it happen though.

Alan_M_2

roswell wrote:

It cant go on indefinately at some point the goal posts cant move any more and the goverment will have to give in to global inflation ... or change the basket some more,,, But the BBC say its ok till 2008 so we will all be OK ..

Indeed, I've got the TV on this morning watching "investing property under the hammer abroad location amateur developer"...if you get my drift....

So far none of them have managed a profit this morning so they're all going to rent them out for a year or so until they increase massively in value (even though they bought below market price at auction).....snigger.

I've found myself wondering what will happen to daytime morning TV when the market turns? will we have.....

Repossessed Homes under the Hammer.

Repossession, Repossession, Repossession.

To sell or not to sell.

Business is quiet for me this time of year...can you tell?;)

BobProperty

Alan_M wrote:

..... will we have.....

Repossessed Homes under the Hammer.

Repossession, Repossession, Repossession.

To sell or not to sell.

Business is quiet for me this time of year...can you tell?;)

My favourite will be "Beat the Bailiff"

You missed out Selling Holiday Homes Abroad, too.

Alan_M_2

BobProperty wrote:

My favourite will be "Beat the Bailiff"

You missed out Selling Holiday Homes Abroad, too.

"Beat the Bailiff" brings old pictures of It's a knockout to mind, complete with Stuart Hall belly Laughing all the way through it:rotfl:

movieman

I think they should start a new reality TV show where the winner gets all their debts paid off; they'd have people killing each other to get on there.

I do think 2007 will be a pretty exciting year for the housing market though. The cracks are showing, the only real question is whether the BoE will bottle out or keep raising interest rates... there's only so long people can keep hanging on hoping for a cut while losing money or getting further in arrears on their mortgage every month.

roswell

what about the adverts ? "Missold your house call 0870 5768769 we will claim on your behalf"