blimmey!... housing market 2007...

james3333

looks like i might get priced out of being able to 'up-size' next year...never mind the poor first time buyers.....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6196695.stm

leftieM

Economics seem impossible to predict in the short term. I bet there are as many saying prices will fall as rise. One of them will probably be right!
I always wonder do rising house prices in a strange way help control inflation? At the end of the day, the bigger the mortgage the smaller the disposable income so the less cash there is swilling about the system.....
I'll get my coat!

Alan_M_2

It's conjecture as much as suggesting a crash is conjecture.

They will continue to rise as long as lenders are willing to lend every increasing mulitples of income, because fundamentally that's what affordability is based on.

A saturation point will be reached at around 6x income, so they will then extend the periods of lending up to 50 years to continue the "affordability".

Sooner or later interest rate will increase and if the lenders are allowed to move the goal posts willy nilly the results won't be pretty.

So in theory that article could be right, we could see another 15% increased, we could also see a 15% decrease, if anyone knew for certain they'd have a licence to print money, but no one does know.

The way these articles are written they are presented as almost fact which does make me chuckle.

james3333

YEH, MUST BE UPSETTING FOR ftb'S THOUGH.
BLIMMEY, IAM EVEN GUTTED A £180K HOUSE NOW WILL BE £209K IF IT GOES UP 15%
WHERE AS MY MEASLY £130K HOSE WILL ONLY RISE TO £149K
I WOULD 'THEORETICALLY' LOOSE £10K ON THAT DEAL!

greencat_2

10+X mortgages anyone?

So basically if you are buying or have bought your own house there's no point in working next year as your house will probably earn more than you. Might as well just MEW.

If you haven't bought - then you are probably shafted. Plan B is looking more and more attractive.

meanmachine_2

If that forecast is correct, then the ave asking price would be 254K, against an average salary of around 27K, so yes, 9-10x mortgages would be needed.

Ah me, the soft landers won't like that one.

For me, fair value on property passed years ago, so they can keep going up to the moon for all I care.

To think we mocked the Irish for their house prices.

Forget the Ashes, or the World Cup - most overpriced housing stock in the world is the trophy Brits are aiming for.

Plonkers.

james3333

meanmachine wrote:

so they can keep going up to the moon for all I care.

I TAKE IT YOUR NOT THINKING OF MOVING UP THE LADDER ANYTIME SOON THEN MEANMACHINE?;)

james3333

damn caps lock!


sorted.

Gorgeous_George

Well, an interest free mortgage of 6 x income would cost:

£600 if salary is £30k (house costing £180k)
£700 if salary is £35k (house costing £210k)
£800 if salary is £40k (house costing £240k)
and so on

Very low interest rates are unlikely based on history and of course, 0% is mad but makes my point well. The point is that, even with very low interest rates, a repayment mortgage over 25 years would eat up a lot of your income. Joint multiples forget that people have kids and the majority of couples will need to rely on a single income at some point.

I cannot see multiples rising further and therefore average prices can only rise by wage inflation at the most in future.



GG

Alan_M_2

It's likely that terms will increase to counteract this problem, whether or not that's ethical is a different conversation.

manhattan

looks like im spending my house deposit on cars, holidays, and nights on the town then,