Halifax May +0.1%

Orpheo

smamst wrote: »

We have had a beautiful spring weather, should really have helped selling properties, and we all know the spring bounce factor and with all that prices are down 4.2 pct yoy. Oh deary me.

People don't buy when the weather is nice, that's a new fact, neither do they buy when there is an extra bank holiday or if easter falls at easter. When all of the above conditions are aligned, folk forget about buying houses and go bonkers about renting. These facts are just a few of those available from the anus of the media.

IveSeenTheLight

Certainly the last year's trend for Halfax appears to be down, although you will see a difference after August when last year's peak drop's out.

Looking back over a longer period, it still in my opinion points to stagnation

Pimperne1

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Certainly the last year's trend for Halfax appears to be down, although you will see a difference after August when last year's peak drop's out.

Looking back over a longer period, it still in my opinion points to stagnation]

Yes but don't you realise that stagnation is a victory for the likes of Gneer as "real" house prices are actually going down. In effect this means that your deposit of £20k in the bank has gone up to £21k and that house prices have stayed about the same, ergo you are in clover (and even better if you had had the foresight to invest in whatever commodity had done best over the year (which all the bears have)).;)

Generali

Really2 wrote: »

Yes, September this year could see a fair change in the YOY if there is not a significant fall.

If you go back over the last 7 months (ie stripping out the clearly noisy Sept and Oct 2010 numbers) you have -2.7% (seasonally adjusted). The picture seems pretty clear to me: prices are gently falling in nominal terms.

Deflation still isn't out of the question. It'll be interesting to see what happens if deflation does kick in.

Graham_Devon

If the pattern continues, we should see a drop of up to 2% next month.

Not saying the pattern will continue, but seems to be a large drop one month followed by a tiny increase the next, bar sep and oct, which the fall was massive, so the rise was larger than normal the following month.

Strange, anyway.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

If you go back over the last 7 months (ie stripping out the clearly noisy Sept and Oct 2010 numbers) you have -2.7% (seasonally adjusted). The picture seems pretty clear to me: prices are gently falling in nominal terms.

Deflation still isn't out of the question. It'll be interesting to see what happens if deflation does kick in.

Agreed, this series of figures are showing a gentle nominal fall over the year but has been stagnant over the two years.

Similarly on the Nationwide stat's, the figures are showing gentle falls for 8 months, followed by 3 months to return to 1.7% below the June peak, but stagnation over the two years

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=44249528&postcount=80

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Certainly the last year's trend for Halfax appears to be down, although you will see a difference after August when last year's peak drop's out.

Looking back over a longer period, it still in my opinion points to stagnation

Of course your opinion of what counts as "stagnation" is total bobbins.

HPI hovering around inflation is stagnation.

Pimperne1

geneer wrote: »

Of course your opinion of what counts as "stagnation" is total bobbins.

HPI hovering around inflation is stagnation.

It is if you have the amount the house cost in an account bearing an interest rate of the inflation rate.

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Yes but don't you realise that stagnation is a victory for the likes of Gneer as "real" house prices are actually going down.

:rotfl:Real "Stagnation" would give positive HPI pimperdoodle.

We're actually talking "real" house price falls.

Or, as everyone called it back in the 90's, a House Price Crash.

Pimperne1

geneer wrote: »

:rotfl:Real "Stagnation" would give positive HPI pimperdoodle.

We're actually talking "real" house price falls.

Or, as everyone called it back in the 90's, a House Price Crash.

Not really a crash more of a correction (they went down then they went up). Anyway, you can only rely on it being a "real" win for you if you have the amount of the house in a bank account or other commodity that attracts interest of inflation rate or above.