Halifax May +0.1%

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

+0.1% MoM, -4.2% YoY

Northern biased index, so it continues to be grim oop north.

But even they're not expecting any significant further falls.

"Overall, we expect a moderate improvement in the economy during the remainder of 2011, which combined with continuing low interest rates, is likely to support housing demand. This should prevent a further marked fall in prices and help to stabilise property values later in the year."

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/2011/HousePriceIndexMay2011.pdf


On another note, now that all three of the HPI indices are showing positive MoM figures......

What's the bet Brit is still refusing to change his sig?:rotfl:

Emy1501

Out of interest is there actually any evidence to support the alleged North Bias in the Halifax figures?

Generali

Emy1501 wrote: »

Out of interest is there actually any evidence to support the alleged North Bias in the Halifax figures?

Both Halifax and Nationwide deny any bias in their figures, they both claim that their 'mix adjustment' strip out distortions caused by their different customer base.

My belief is that it's just about impossible to strip out bisases like that: if the data has a bias, the output will too. I'm not a statistician though.

thriftybabe

I have given up believing anything that comes out in the media. I just have a look at what is happening around me! House prices around here are dropping and any that have not dropped have been on the market for upto 2 years without selling. Certainly this is the upper end of the market where I live with a lot of the houses up for sale between £750k and upwards to over a million! (i am at the poor end of this village!!) Even those at the lower end do not seem to be selling! In addition OH works in new build. We are certainly the busiest we have been in over 2 years however a lot of it is to do with new legislation coming in on new build housing. The builders have to get the houses up before this comes in (on sites that have been dormant for a couple of years) so they are building so they can complete the sites and the houses have not sold!

Emy1501

Generali wrote: »

Both Halifax and Nationwide deny any bias in their figures, they both claim that their 'mix adjustment' strip out distortions caused by their different customer base.

My belief is that it's just about impossible to strip out bisases like that: if the data has a bias, the output will too. I'm not a statistician though.

The reason I ask is I know a fair few including myself who live in the South but have a mortgage through the Halifax. I wonder if the difference in figures has more do witht he fact that NW has always been alot more careful as to who it lends to and therefore is a lot less likely to have as many forced sellers.

Really2

Emy1501 wrote: »

wonder if the difference in figures has more do witht he fact that NW has always been alot more careful as to who it lends to and therefore is a lot less likely to have as many forced sellers.

I am not sure how forced sellers on the books would affect these figures?

BeardedDez

Is there a regional breakdown to the Halifax figures?

Generali

Emy1501 wrote: »

The reason I ask is I know a fair few including myself who live in the South but have a mortgage through the Halifax. I wonder if the difference in figures has more do witht he fact that NW has always been alot more careful as to who it lends to and therefore is a lot less likely to have as many forced sellers.

The Halifax figures are made using buyer data, not seller data AIUI so that shouldn't have an impact.

Were Nationwide more careful? I think I remember them doing 100% mortgages and they still offer BTL mortgages through a separate subsidiary.

Generali

BeardedDez wrote: »

Is there a regional breakdown to the Halifax figures?

I think so, on a quarterly basis only though.

Emy1501

Generali wrote: »

The Halifax figures are made using buyer data, not seller data AIUI so that shouldn't have an impact.

Were Nationwide more careful? I think I remember them doing 100% mortgages and they still offer BTL mortgages through a separate subsidiary.

Thanks

NW were always more careful than HBOS and still are as far as I'm aware I have even heard that from Brokers. I don't think there is anything wrong with 100% mortgages or BTL mortgages as long as Affordability is checked correctly.

It would be interesting then to know why the big difference between the 2 then.

nembot

Halifax say prices are down 4.2% year on year....

Quite suprising considering how much has gone into keeping the dream of silly prices alive.

http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/mortgages/2011/06/halifax-house-prices-down-42-over-the-year?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=sidebar&utm_campaign=box