House Price Rise by 16% forecast....CEBR

mr_fishbulb

Sibley wrote: »

This front page story has totally finished any talk of house price reductions.

Hehe - sometimes I can't decide if you are serious or being sarcastic. You get a "Thanks" because you made me laugh either way

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The 4 per cent year-on-year surge is predicted to start at the end of 2011 and carry on until 2015.

"Surge" :rotfl:

Looks like they're on the fast spin cycle.

doire_2

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

Only a matter of time until house prices are booming again. Could be as soon as 2013. The media will then start playing it up as the greatest thing ever, the Tories will be pouring more money into shared-ownership, 100% mortgages will return and all the supposed lessons of the past will be forgotton. I'm afraid you can't fight human nature.

.

However, Stephen Noakes, commercial director of Halifax Mortgages, told the BBC that the days of 100% mortgages were over.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13575857

Turnbull2000

doire wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13575857

Until a Halifax competitor offers them...

bpm_2

Why do people read a headline only? I can say anything as long as I have a caveat underneath to state where I decided to get one piece of information from.

House prices going up 16% BY the end of 2015 so that's 3.5 years, therefore averaging 4.57% a year or to look at it another way 0.43% under Mervyn King's estimate of inflation in the coming years. (as governor of the BoE he probably based that on facts).

So whooppe house owners of the land, be prepared to consistently lose 0.43% a year for the next 4 years. Oh joy.

Now Im an advocate of owning your own house, but investing in a depreciating asset is bad for your wallet. House prices CANNOT continue to rise greater than inflation indefinately, nothing in the world can, or it becomes unsaleable and therefore the market dictates a lower price. Its basic maths really.

System

bpm I agree with you, which is why I'm equally confused at the gnashing and wailing from the "bears". 4% a year is a pretty acceptable amount for everyone.

dtsazza

Well, presumably the bears want a "correction", i.e. a nontrivial reduction in house prices to e.g. the inflation-adjusted equivalent of levels in 2000.

If you believe houses are overvalued, a 0.43% p.a. real fall (and more importantly a notional gain, which looks like an increase in the eyes of a financially underliterate public and thus drives "house prices are rising, buy now" sentiment) isn't going to cut it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

With regards to that headline, sellers and EAs will soon start pricing higher in the expectation of further increases, and the already widespread reluctance to sell below 2007 prices will become overwhelming.

Very true....

chucky

DervProf wrote: »

Hamish's **** is soar, after reading Express headline.

for someone that always claims the moral high ground frequently accusing others of not being 'nice' that is isn't very 'nice'.

DervProf

chucky wrote: »

for someone that always claims the moral high ground frequently accusing others of not being 'nice' that is isn't very 'nice'.

That, I`m sure even Hamish would agree, is not exactly nasty. It is supposed to be a humorous play on words. I didn't call Hamish any names, didn't tell him he is "stupid", "thick" or "a moron".

A bit like when I enquired if you were a c*ck or a hen. I suspected you were a c*ck.