"What’ll happen to house prices?" poll discussion

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What’ll happen to house prices?
Annual UK house prices have reportedly fallen around 1% in the last year. So it's time for our regular poll to ask you where you think they’ll go next.
[FONT="]What do you think’ll happen to UK house prices over the next 12 months?[/FONT]
A. Increase over 20% (big boom)
B. Increase 10-20% (boom)
C. Increase 5-10%
D. Increase 2-5%
E. No real change
F. Decrease 2-5%
G. Decrease 5-10%
H. Decrease 10-20% (smaller crash)
I. Decrease over 20% (crash)
J. I really have no idea
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Annual UK house prices have reportedly fallen around 1% in the last year. So it's time for our regular poll to ask you where you think they’ll go next.
[FONT="]What do you think’ll happen to UK house prices over the next 12 months?[/FONT]
A. Increase over 20% (big boom)
B. Increase 10-20% (boom)
C. Increase 5-10%
D. Increase 2-5%
E. No real change
F. Decrease 2-5%
G. Decrease 5-10%
H. Decrease 10-20% (smaller crash)
I. Decrease over 20% (crash)
J. I really have no idea
[threadbanner] box [/threadbanner]
0
This discussion has been closed.
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This is bigger than the UK average on this basis I estimate that in general property will continue to fall between 10 and 15% over the next 12 months.
Is this the same Kirsty who said she would eat her hat if house prices crashed in 2007?
Is this the same Phill whose property company went bankruprt.
Kirsty and Phill are nothing more than property speculators who just got caught up in the biggest international property bubble ever.
If you want to know what is going to happen to property prices speak to economists and not vested interest property speculators.
The truth is house prices are still highly overvalued and there is no money left to keep them at this level. They are falling at the peak selling period when interest rates are at 0.5%.
There are so many reasons why prices are going to fall and the only one people can say why they will rise is limited supply as we are an island. However that argument has been proven false after the price crash in Japan in the 80s. Same limited supply, same growing population, same house price bubble and same crash.
Save our Savers
Some areas have already exceeded the previous peak, and not just in London. In my area for example, which is about as far from London as you can get, actual selling prices are now 15% or so above where they were at the start of 2007, and are up 4% year on year. As every year passes we will see more and more areas recover to their previous peak prices, so the clock is most certainly ticking.
Rents are soaring, now at a new record high and still rising at twice the rate of wage inflation, as the mortgage famine forces a generation of FTB-s to enrich their landlords instead of themselves.
Buy to let lending is the one section of mortgage lending that is dramatically up year on year, as landlords buy up the cheaper houses instead of FTB-s, due to the yields being so good.
And housebuilding is at it's lowest levels in over 100 years, whilst population continues to grow at near record levels. We only build around 100,000 houses a year, but form 250,000 new households a year.....
And that's before the biggest generation of FTB age people in history, bigger even than the baby boomers, starts reaching the age to buy from 2012/2013 onwards. This generation will peak in size by around 2020 at almost a million a year versus 680,000 a year at present, and it will be 2028 before there are as few FTB age people in the UK again as there are today.
FTB-s have one more year, maybe two, of the current stagnation.....
And then the biggest generation in history crashes into the lowest level of housebuilding since Victorian times, with only one possible result.... And it ain't falling prices.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
False.
Japan kept building throughout, we've virtually ground to a standstill, with house building at the lowest level since 1923 last year, and down 41% from that level so far this year.
False.
Japan's population has been in decline for decades.
We add 400,000 people a year, create 250,000 new households, and build just 100,000 houses.
False.
Prices in Japan at peak reached $1,000,000 per square metre in some areas.
Or roughly 20 times higher than the Candy brothers incredibly expensive development, which is the most expensive property in Britain.
UK average prices today are just 4.5 times male mean income, versus a long term average of 4 times male mean income. Not even remotely in bubble territory.
If you want to see a real bubble, look at Beijing, with average house prices in some areas of 88 times average earnings.
False.
Our crash was tiny by comparison, and the recovery far faster. Because we never had a proper bubble, like Japan and their million dollars a metre, or China and their 88 times average income.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”