"What’ll happen to house prices?" poll discussion

brit1234

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

UK average prices today are just 4.5 times male mean income, versus a long term average of 4 times male mean income. Not even remotely in bubble territory.

Average male salary about £26,000, average uk property at the same time £232,628.

So that's 9 times male mean income. Hamish you are not even close.

300% increases in property prices in a decade when wages rose about 20-30% is a bubble what ever you call it.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=285
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/houses.stm

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

brit1234 wrote: »

Average male salary about £26,000, average uk property at the same time £232,628.

You need to learn the difference between mean and median.

From your favourite publication, Moneyweek.

One thing that baffled some of you was the assertion from the Halifax that the average house price - at £160,000 - is 4.4 times the average salary. I checked out the Halifax's methodology - they use the mean (as opposed to median) average salary for a full-time male worker in the UK. According to the Office for National Statistics, that clocks in at around £36,000 a year

The long term average on the Halifax dataset is 4 times male mean salary.

House prices today are 4.4 times male mean salary. So roughly 10% above the long term average, but hardly a surprise given the increase in population and shortage of housing.

If you can't even master the basics, Brit, it's no wonder your predictions for 50% falls by Xmas 09 were so far off the mark.:rotfl:

brit1234

Strange Hamish no links to your salaries where I have and you don't like using what is widely regard most accurate price figures the land registry.

Would you like to tell people why prices are falling at the usual peak booming selling time, would you like to say why mortgage lending is down?

Would you like to say why every indicator of house price health is negative with the exception of irrelevant asking prices?

House prices are vastly overvalued, falling in price and will continue to fall in price.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

brit1234 wrote: »

Strange Hamish no links to your salaries where I have and you don't like using what is widely regard most accurate price figures the land registry.

The source is Halifax and the ONS, as reported in Moneyweek.

Would you like to tell people why prices are falling at the usual peak booming selling time,

Actual NSA prices are up around £4000 since the start of the year, they're just not rising as fast as they would be expected to at this time of year, hence the seasonally adjusted dip on some indices.

Would you like to say why every indicator of house price health is negative with the exception of irrelevant asking prices?

Biggest cuts since the 70's, deepest recession in 100 years, high unemployment, the withdrawal of 70% of mortgage funding from the market, and a global financial crisis that has resulted in endemic mortgage rationing.

And with all that, the perfect storm for house prices, they're just 11% below peak, stable in 70% of areas in the UK, rising in 10%, and falling in just 20% of areas. (source, RICS)

chucky

is this the same Brit who spams various forums that house prices are falling under various different usernames?

how desperate is he!!! he was telling everyone that house prices would fall by 50% by Christmas at one point...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

chucky wrote: »

is this the same Brit who spams various forums that house prices are falling under various different usernames?

Yes.

how desperate is he!!! he was telling everyone that house prices would fall by 50% by Christmas at one point...

Very desperate indeed.:eek:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

brit1234 wrote: »

Would you like to say why every indicator of house price health is negative
.

Wrong again Brit. Prices currently rising.




Credit phdinbubbles on hpc.

adrian_clark

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Wrong again Brit. Prices currently rising.




Credit phdinbubbles on hpc.

This is a useful site:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm

rickbonar

Average income .. mean, median, modal.

I think it should be the modal figure.

The old fashioned mean has been replaced by the new fangled median.

How do they calculate these ... can anyone tell us.

NEO72

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

In around 10% of areas, they're rising slightly. In around 20% of areas, they're falling slightly. And in 70% of areas, they're stable.

</p>Funny, I've seen the April 2011 RICS report and 12% of surveyors reported rises whilst 29% reported falls, giving a balance of 17% (although the seasonally adjusted balance is an even more pessimistic 21% so I can see why you wouldn't want to mention that). And since you're so keen on quoting RICS reports, here's another from the same report: London is the only region of England where more surveyors are seeing rising rather than falling prices. So it would appear that the current state of the London's market is creating a misleading national picture.Finally you seem to claim that prices are stagnant. Well it depends which indices you cherry pick to back up your claims I suppose. For example, you could use the Nationwide figures released today which only cover around 10% of mortgages (the number of which has dropped massively) so is statistically speaking not a particularly reliable indicator due to the small sample size. Alternatively, you could use the Land registry figures which cover ALL completed sales, including the large proportion of cash buyers, and are far more reliable due to the much larger sample size. Now looking at the Land Registry figures, it seems prices have fallen 6 out of the last 7 months (down 3.5% in total) and in fact the rate of falls mirrors very closely what was happening in the first half of 2008 (the REALLY big falls didn't begin until the summer).So in my opinion it would be very foolish to bet against further drops, especially considering interest rates can not go any lower and the government doesn't have the will or the spare cash to continue propping up the market as the last government, desperate to buy votes did.