SNP Win - The Economics of D-I-V-O-R-C-E

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Definately not as soon as possible.

They will want to have a period where they can use their majority to influence the country more on what it wants to achieve.

Then if positive results can be shown, it would increase the confidence of the population towards independance.

It's utter folly to consider that they would not take advantage of the majority before posing the independance referendum.

Also, every SNP MSP I've heard quoted have all said it would be in the second half of the session.

A bit of a Google shows you are right.

Apparently the opinion polls show a minority of Scots in favour of independence at the moment so if you have a once in a generation opportunity to hold a referendum you'll do your utmost to make sure you win. It seems a bit weird to me that Scots would vote for a party when they don't believe in their very reason for existing.

Jonbvn

purch wrote: »

One piece of good news.

We could ban all talk of Scottish houseprices, on this English forum

And you wonder why us Celts hate you.;)

If we're going down the full devolution route, I would ask that you please take your Greek/German royals with you. Although I think Pippa may have some Welsh in her (if not I can help with that;)).

BTW, I've got some England RFU grand slam 2011 t-shirts going cheap, if you're interested?

abaxas

It's going to be fun for the north of England when Scotland does !!!!!! off.

No doubt inflation will be ripe north of the border (due to there only be socialism available) so people will come across to buy the UK good and services, like they do from southern to northern Ireland.

The question is, would we ever let them back? I think we probably wouldnt.

System

There will be a lot of disgruntled disenfranchised ex-pat Scots if the promised referendum only allows residents to have a vote.

When southern Ireland became independent they granted nationality to anyone with an Irish grandparent. Times have moved on since then, and racial equality laws will present some interesting problems when they try to disentangle exactly what constitutes Scottish nationality.

I was born in Scotland, of English descent, now living in Wales. Which country would I become a national of?

Kohoutek

Scotland will never be "independent", even if a referendum gives it some kind of nominal political independence. What percentage of Scotland's trade is with rest of the UK, 90%?

The historic Kingdom of Scotland wasn't really independent either, it was a quasi vassal state of France. It collapsed in a similar fashion to the Republic of Ireland's recent economic collapse, because the country overextended itself, massively, into financial ruin.

Perhaps Scotland could survive as some kind of left wing petro-state like Norway for 20 years or so, but after that where would the money for Mr Salmond's lavish spending come from?

neverdespairgirl

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

If you want to go back in history, wasn't Mary Queen of Scot's the rightful heir to the Throne and as such the monarchy should have passed down the Scottish heritage instead of the German one

It did. James I & VI was the son of Mary Queen of Scots!

Shakethedisease

The are concentrating on the Scotland Bill which is already going through Westminster. It's first reading was in Nov, the SNP were never happy with it.

They want it beefed up and given real fiscal teeth.

They are after devolved corporation taxes, more borrowing powers, the rights to the Crown Estate revenue in Scotland going directly to Scotland ( this covers the shoreline and seabeds up to 12 miles offshore ).. This would give them all they need to push forward with their ( ambitious ) plan to supply Scotland with 100% of it's electricity from renewables by 2020, and export the rest.

The SNP wants quicker access to enhanced borrowing powers for the Scottish Government and Parliament, bringing forward the timescale outlined in the Bill.

Other targets include devolving corporation tax to Scotland and giving Holyrood control of revenue generated through Crown Estate land and property, currently paid to the Treasury.
The SNP also repeated its demand for the immediate release of the fossil fuel levy, a £200 million fund held in London that can be spent only to promote the use of energy from renewable sources in Scotland.

More info as per the link

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics-news/2011/04/25/snp-sets-out-scotland-bill-demands-ahead-of-holyrood-election-86908-23086096/

Salmond mentioned all of the above in his victory speech yesterday. And if the papers today are anything to go by, Cameron is already being pressured to get these ammendments on the table asap.

If he doesn't ? I presume Salmond/SNP will simply point to Westminster and say 'See ? This is what happens when when we try to better Scotland and make things better for you.. Westminster blocks us'.. and this in turn with further the case for Independence.

I reckon he's playing quite an astute game is Salmond with this. He'll turn the thumbscrews on to get these ammendments in, and if he doesn't then it'll further his parties core independence policy ( which will deliver the goods eventually anyway ).

Oh and all those moaning about the block grant ? The SNP as far as I can read, want rid just as much as most in England do.

chris_m

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

It did. James I & VI was the son of Mary Queen of Scots!

As per post 33 perchance?

:p;)

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

A bit of a Google shows you are right.

Apparently the opinion polls show a minority of Scots in favour of independence at the moment so if you have a once in a generation opportunity to hold a referendum you'll do your utmost to make sure you win. It seems a bit weird to me that Scots would vote for a party when they don't believe in their very reason for existing.

IIRC the figures are about 33% want independance and 43% do not.
The remainder showed no preference.
I guess it would depend on how the vote works, but if it's only on those who express (chose to vote) and say either yes or no, it could be as little as just over a 5% swing.

Watching various programs on the Scottish election, it seems clear that in a general election, the Scots vote more for Labour and Lib Dems along with the SNP to ensure that the Tories (Scotland has historically not favoured very well by the conservatives) are less likely to get into power.

In a simple Scottish election, Westminster does not have a factor and the Scots vote more in line with who they favour at the time.

Given how the Lib Dems have acted since forming part of the co-alition, it was almost a certainty that the Lib Dems would suffer as they have also factored in the English council elections.

When you look at the statistics, Labour, Lib Dems and the Conservative all lost votes with the SNP mainly picking them all up (along with some Green votes who also want independance)

The Scottish people may not want independance, but want to be consulted on whether they do or not.

The AV referendum is a prime example of something trotted out by Westminster to try and appease the people who want proportional representation, without actually giving them the straight choice of proportional representation.

I wonder how the vote would have been if it was: -

1. First Past The Post
2. Alternative Vote
3. Proportional Representation

dunstonh

If Scotland had left the union say 5 years ago, it would now be bankrupt and probably going cap in hand again to England as it had to when the Union started.

As Iceland had to pay for the Icelandic banks. Scotland would have to cover the Scottish Banks which would have been re-registered under them. Could you imagine that Scotland alone could handle the debts of Royal Bank of Scotland or HBOS?