House prices 'to fall for the next five years' in longest property slump for a lifeti

IveSeenTheLight

Poshbird wrote: »

I cant see an increase in earnings or income of any kind. With rents and house prices falling. Average earnings are falling as unemployment continues to go up.

You may need to do a bit of reading to update your considerations

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I do have property for investment.This investment is a long term strategy

Bulls 2005: Property only ever goes up.
Bulls 2006: Property only ever goes up.
Bulls 2007: Property only over goes up.
Bulls 2008: Property only ever goes up....long term. :rotfl:

Pimperne1

geneer wrote: »

Bulls 2005: Property only ever goes up.
Bulls 2006: Property only ever goes up.
Bulls 2007: Property only over goes up.
Bulls 2008: Property only ever goes up....long term. :rotfl:

In Edinburgh that seem still to be the case (£50k since you could have bought in in 2006).:T:T:T

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

In Edinburgh that seem still to be the case (£50k since you could have bought in in 2006).:T:T:T

Lordy. Thats almost what you've lost on your two 2007 purchases isn't it?

Sorry pimp. My calculations for Edinburgh say £316.
Still, I understand you trying to change the inconvenient rules of the b@llshit timing game.

But if its been good enough for four years, it really should be good enough now. :cool:

rxbishop

10% drop in real terms in 5 years?

So say 100k house, 20k deposit - 80k mortgage. you'd've surely paid 10% off in equity after 5 years even with a 25 year mortgage so you'd only owe 72k. What will inflation be? 4%, say 20% over 5 years so they're saying the house should be worth 120k, but will actually be worth 108k. but you only owe 72k and therefore have 36k of equity a return of 80% on your original 20k investment. Sounds good to me and I'm a renter, hoping to buy soon. with a 15 year mortgage you'd've prob paid off closer to 25% so you'd have 60k owing and 48k equity - a 140% return. Better than a bank.

rxbishop

The above is on the assumption that your mortgage is similar to what your rent is so that you'd be throwing that money away anyway.

rxbishop

Oh and btw, a bank ain't gonna lend me 80k to invest on the stock market or betfair or a high interest account or whatever, so for people like me that comparison is pointless.

Thrugelmir

rxbishop wrote: »

What will inflation be? 4%, say 20% over 5 years so they're saying the house should be worth 120k,

House prices will be determined by a combination of wage rates and credit availability. Not the general rate of inflation.

rxbishop

Yeah but the report said 10% drop in real terms. Real terms means taking into account inflation. That is the only reason i'm guessing what inflation will be.

Poshbird

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1383668/House-prices-fall-years-longest-property-slump-lifetime.html

Gotta say though, if the worst is their predicting a 10.5% drop in real terms by end of 2015, it's hardly worth getting your knockers in a twist over.

I wonder what they then think the price will be nominally.

10.5% down by 2015 is a crash if everything else keeps going up in `price` Property is crashing in `value`...............