House prices 'to fall for the next five years' in longest property slump for a lifeti

StevieJ

Poshbird wrote: »

Wealth does not get created out of thin air if that's what you are suggesting, wealth can only get transferred.

The population of the planet is increasing at about the same rate as goods and services.

Gold is a good example the amount of gold getting mined and stockpiled is increasing about the same rate as the population of the world. Silver on the other hand is getting used up and about 95% of all silver even mined has already been used up.

This is indisputable. But I will no doubt get slammed for mentioning the 'S' word!

What is the % for oil then? must be about 99% :eek: and food grown 99.9%.

Poshbird

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Seriously in your opinion a 10.5% drop in "real terms" constitues a crash.

Nominally the price may increase in that scenario but you'll still consider it a crash.

Nominally people may still be paying more but you'll still consider it a crash if a "10.5% real term" fall occurs.

I'm wonderingm would you measure the real term against inflation as normal or against wages?

Certainly, there may be a 10.5% real term fall against inflation and an even bigger gap against wages i.e. inflation increases 20%, house prices increase 9.5% and wages increase 5%

A 10% drop in real terms is not a crash. That is why I said look at how much everything else is going up until 2015.

10% nominal fall would be a crash.

That was my point about the difference between price and value. Even if prices of houses go up a little more they could be falling in value.

Poshbird

StevieJ wrote: »

What is the % for oil then? must be about 99% :eek: and food grown 99.9%.

Yes good points but food is a renewable source. Actually so is oil but it takes a long time

Silver is in finite quantities. The easy to get to silver has already been depleated. Most of it has ended up on landfill or in the sea. Yes it could be got back in theory, but the price has got to go up an awful lot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So you have to compare apples with apples.

Yes silver is like oil because its getting used up, but its also like gold because its a monetary metal.

95% of gold ever mined is still in stockpiles, 95% of silver has been used up.

Thrugelmir

Poshbird wrote: »

Its obvious as the currency supply of the world expands there are more units of fiat currency chasing the same amount of goods and services.

Not that people that have been previously exploited want the same standard of living that we enjoy? So are asking for and receiving sizable wage increases.

Conrad

Poshbird wrote: »

Wealth does not get created out of thin air if that's what you are suggesting, wealth can only get transferred.

So Americas wealth is the same now as it was when the first Puritans landed?

Poshbird

Conrad wrote: »

So Americas wealth is the same now as it was when the first Puritans landed?

Exactly it all changed in 1971. After 1971 when they changed the worlds monetary system. They steal wealth from the rest of the world every time they create another $100000000 ($Bil) every month as they are doing.

IveSeenTheLight

Poshbird wrote: »

A 10% drop in real terms is not a crash. That is why I said look at how much everything else is going up until 2015.

10% nominal fall would be a crash.

That was my point about the difference between price and value. Even if prices of houses go up a little more they could be falling in value.

Different stance to you you came accross above

Originally Posted by Poshbird
10.5% down (OP and link referred to this as real terms) by 2015 is a crash if everything else keeps going up in `price` Property is crashing in `value`...............

Poshbird

So what do you think Ivseenthelight? How much do you think property will fall by 2015? Will it constitute a crash by your argument?

IveSeenTheLight

Poshbird wrote: »

So what do you think Ivseenthelight? How much do you think property will fall by 2015? Will it constitute a crash by your argument?

Nominally, I don't think there will be a fall by 2015, therefore would not be considered as a crash.

In Real Terms of course, the value may be lowered, but nominally I think the will be higher than now.

Poshbird

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Nominally, I don't think there will be a fall by 2015, therefore would not be considered as a crash.

In Real Terms of course, the value may be lowered, but nominally I think the will be higher than now.

So we are pretty much in agreement then

Although even if the 'price' is a little higher by 2015 I still think houses will have crashed in value, which is my entire point.