House prices 'to fall for the next five years' in longest property slump for a lifeti

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Linton wrote: »

I thought Roe vs Wade was in the US?? Didnt have any impact here. Crime has been reducing significantly in the UK. Methinks your "correlation" owes more to your prejudices than reality.

Another correlation for you (IIRC from a stats text book): Diagnosed mental illness during the first half of the 20th century is closely correlated with the number of radios. Therefore....

Roe vs wade was in the US and its impact on crime is well documented and proven. Lower class people cause a majority of the crime. Fact. Read freakonomics if you dont believe me.

IveSeenTheLight

macaque wrote: »

If you are in property for investment, I would suggest that this prospect is about as desirable as a dead fox under the floor boards. And if FTSE goes up 50% by 2015, make that a dead camel under the floor boards.

I do have property for investment.
This investment is a long term strategy and I consider the time to 2015 as short term with regards the investment.

I've shown before how property investment can provide good returns even without capital appreciation over a 25 year period.

I've been burned by shares before, many have done as well.
Property investment may not beat the best of shares investments, but in my opinion is a hell of a lot more secure.

Incidently, a 50% increase in the FTSE 100 would be a historical high, never seen before.
Do you envisage the FTSE 100 topping 9,000 by 2015?

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

great move ginger nuts, you've saved 1.5% on buying a property - 1.5%. on a £200k property is £3k.

£3k would be £250 a month in rent... i bet you've paid more than £250 a month in rent each and every month. looks like not only you're not good at maths but you've forked yourself up financially good and proper despite trying to convince everyone otherwise. well done :T

He obviously does not understand the concept of general stagnation.
Of course the figure will not be exactly 0.0% change each month / year, there will be fluctuations up and down.

I called +1.5% in 2010 and was found to be too pessimistic.
My counter -1.5% to reflect my stagnation thoughts may also be pessimistic
This may not be an agreed consideration but if prices oscillate +/- 5% over any given period of time, I'd consider that stagnation unless it was sustained in the positive or negative direction.

macaque_2

[QUOTE=IveSeenTheLight
;43435226]I do have property for investment.
This investment is a long term strategy and I consider the time to 2015 as short term with regards the investment.

I've shown before how property investment can provide good returns even without capital appreciation over a 25 year period.

I've been burned by shares before, many have done as well.
Property investment may not beat the best of shares investments, but in my opinion is a hell of a lot more secure.

Incidently, a 50% increase in the FTSE 100 would be a historical high, never seen before.
Do you envisage the FTSE 100 topping 9,000 by 2015?[/QUOTE]

Amazon Book of the Month

Title - Autobiography of an Investor
Author - IveSeenTheLight

2007 to 2008 - The Footsie years
2008 to 2015 - The Property years
2015 to 2020 - The Wilderness years
2020 to 2050 - More Wilderness years

fiona79

Prices will have to fall a lot more than 10% in the next few years for me to ever buy my own house. In Stratford prices have hardly seemed to drop at all so can only hope things change in the next few years otherwise it's renting for life for me and my kids.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Do you envisage the FTSE 100 topping 9,000 by 2015?

No, as poorly performing Companies or those that go bust are dropped from the index and replaced. So the constituents of the index are different.

Also proven fact that the majority of return from shares is derived from reinvesting dividend income, not from capital growth.

Cleaver

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Also proven fact that the majority of return from shares is derived from reinvesting dividend income, not from capital growth.

That's true, but capital appreciation often isn't that bad either is it?

I believe that if you'd invested £50 on the first trading day each month since the start of the FTSE 100 in 1984 until now (which is how a lot of people tend to invest in this type of thing), you'd have put in a total £16,300 and would currently have £31,566. This is a return of 93.6% over the 27 years, or about 3.5% per year. Which is okay. Obviously a lot more with dividends.

However, if you'd invested £100,000 in the FTSE 100 at launch, even without dividends, it would currently be worth £525,000. So I make that a 525% return over the 27 years, or an average of 19.4% a year. That seems pretty good, so have I got my maths right here? I'm not always great with my maths on these types of thing.

Not sure what it would be with dividends reinvested? Anyone know? I'm sure I remember reading that the return from the FTSE 100 since 1984 including dividends would be about 900%. Which seems rather nice.

Cleaver

fiona79 wrote: »

In Stratford prices have hardly seemed to drop at all so can only hope things change in the next few years otherwise it's renting for life for me and my kids.

That change could be a drop in prices, but it could also be a change which includes an increase in income, a change in expectations or a change of location. Any of these changes could mean that you end up buying a house.

IveSeenTheLight

macaque wrote: »

Amazon Book of the Month

Title - Autobiography of an Investor
Author - IveSeenTheLight

2007 to 2008 - The Footsie years
2008 to 2015 - The Property years
2015 to 2020 - The Wilderness years
2020 to 2050 - More Wilderness years

Your crystal ball seems a little cloudy, best get a new one

Poshbird

Cleaver wrote: »

That change could be a drop in prices, but it could also be a change which includes an increase in income, a change in expectations or a change of location. Any of these changes could mean that you end up buying a house.

I cant see an increase in earnings or income of any kind. With rents and house prices falling. Average earnings are falling as unemployment continues to go up.