Thank you CME Group

sabretoothtigger

I put down 40 as the short term positive price and about 30 is the long term rise ( Similar to 26 last January). So long as it stays above those then on average its still doing amazingly 'best in a generation' well.

The main difference from 1981 when price went from 50 to 11 is Fed cannot ever afford to hike rates to 15% now. So the fundamental case on a gradual basis is still in favour of commodities.

The push to higher margin came from some political pressure and also common sense to avoid wild markets.
Many people in the world greatly suffer when basic goods cost more, it alters their life drastically hence these revolutions are related imo


I see it as still going up, I'll buy a small portion of silver mining tomorow as I think they will do well still

For the common guy this means petrol prices are not going sub 1 pound a litre this decade as far as I see, not on an average basis anyway.
The wild spikes like silver just had dont even really matter except to the over excitable peeps

I suspect that the money is now sloshing into the short silver funds.

These people represent future forced buyers of silver then. Otherwise I dont think demand is massive but is steady and accumulating


Today was a 12.5% drop in price and an all time high in volume. Quintuple the normal interest in SLV deals. So the drop is very real and likely to 'set in' not bounce so far as I can tell

Physical money M0 is not being printed. There is less physical money today then the summation of M0+M1+M2 in 1980.

http://mises.org/daily/5028/media.aspx?action=author&ID=299

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Components_of_US_Money_supply.svg

Loughton_Monkey

The ones I feel sorry for [or not, actually] are the ones who insist on holding the physical stuff - rather than any CFD/ETF's etc. I recall rants on here when I questioned why, I didn't get any rational answers other than 'men' only buy physical silver. CFD's are for wimps.....

Clearly, the electronic investors have mostly successfully dumped out by pressing a button - helping to accelerate the fall. All these 'physical' investors are presumably wrapping and dispatching while the silver merchants are dropping their prices like nobody's business.

But presumably there are those in both camps who have missed the boat, and are sitting there deluding themselves that it'll zoom back up to $49 the next time the Irish Finance Minister sneezes.

sabretoothtigger

I think it'll see 49 again and beyond. Not sure if it'll be this year but I would venture probably within a year it'll exceed this high. The 2008 top was pretty solid for a long time, its strange that it would exceed now in some ways. More fear after the crash, what could cause that - its not industrial demand or 'we're running out'

The more doubt expressed now with this margin call, the more certain Iam it'll rise again in dollars at least.
I do wonder which if any currencies might gain faster then commodity prices rise

The physical argument relates to events in the 30's and the idea of radical extremes (black swans, etc) which might happen but not this year (in the west) imo

Reaper

Could this be the dead cat bounce I predicted?



Source: PHAG on Google

Much as we are enjoying the discomfort of the silver bulls it would not suprise me if the fall gets overdone and might even turn into a buying opportunity. Silver has always been highly volatile.