Has your spring lost its bounce?

Orpheo

Hometrack -3.3% YOY

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/market-snapshot/index.cfm

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/UK-April-house-price-fall-targetukfocus-2176821953.html?x=0

That'll be the snow then.

julieq

Keep trying Orpheo, that's the most hopeful spin I've ever seen on stagnation (prices unchanged on the month against a reversing trend).

Looking at the graph at http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/market-snapshot/house_price_growth.cfm I'm minded to dig out the thread where the bears had a go when I pointed out the market was oscillating on about a 3 month cycle. That's pretty much exactly what that graph is showing.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Keep trying Orpheo, that's the most hopeful spin I've ever seen on stagnation (prices unchanged on the month against a reversing trend).

Followed up by the most hopeful spin on stagnation? You even had to explain yourself in brackets

julieq

Graham, what is your problem? I was pointing out what the article said and what Orpheo chose to omit: the data says prices are unchanged month on month, and that the trend is reversing. I wasn't explaining what stagnation is.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Graham, what is your problem? I was pointing out what the article said and what Orpheo chose to omit: the data says prices are unchanged month on month, and that the trend is reversing. I wasn't explaining what stagnation is.

The headline from the article...

LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - House prices in England and Wales fell in April at their fastest annual pace in 18 months and are likely to slip further this year on fears about the economic outlook, Hometrack said on Monday.

Julie: Hopeful spin. Stagnation that is.

Second paragraph:

The property data firm's monthly survey showed prices were 3.3 percent down in April compared with a year ago, the biggest decline since October 2009, when Britain was emerging from recession.

Julie: Orpheo chose to omit some stuff. Stagnation that is.

And it's not static either. Was -3.2% last month. Now -3.3%.

Just found it amusing you would class this as spin, and whats more, stagnation.

Orpheo

julieq wrote: »

Graham, what is your problem? I was pointing out what the article said and what Orpheo chose to omit: the data says prices are unchanged month on month, and that the trend is reversing. I wasn't explaining what stagnation is.

Who are you picking an argument with? I just posted links FYI, no spin, or even comment.

You were quick to pull at your choke-chain though. Feeling worried?

Grrrrrr!

julieq

Orpheo, you're quoting the headlines which are in themselves spin.

The YOY are subject to a phasing issue anyway depending on what direction the market was moving 12 months ago.

Tell you what, let's just come back next month shall we and look again? It's utterly pointless arguing with semi religious nutters on the basis of facts and numbers. Look at the graph I linked to, which is from the same data, and which clearly shows oscillation around a settling point.

Degenerate

Graham_Devon wrote: »

And it's not static either. Was -3.2% last month. Now -3.3%.

Just found it amusing you would class this as spin, and whats more, stagnation.

You really don't understand YOY figures, do you?

Free clue: One year ago house prices were still rising. Later in the year they dropped a bit then stagnated. As the April 2010 rise falls out of the window, anything less than an equal rise in April 2011 will have a negative effect on the annual figure.

Orpheo

julieq wrote: »

Look at the graph I linked to, which is from the same data, and which clearly shows oscillation around a settling point.

Oh, clearly.

Orpheo

Degenerate wrote: »

You really don't understand YOY figures, do you?

Free clue: One year ago house prices were still rising. Later in the year they dropped a bit then stagnated. As the April 2010 rise falls out of the window, anything less than an equal rise in April 2011 will have a negative effect on the annual figure.

So your spring has lost its bounce. Oh dear. Doesn't bode well for the months to come.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

And it's not static either. Was -3.2% last month. Now -3.3%.

Just found it amusing you would class this as spin, and whats more, stagnation.

That may be the stupidest thing you've ever posted. :T

Prices are unchanged from last month to this month..... So the year on year is a reflection of what was happening last year, not this year.

Prices unchanged from last month to this month Graham.... No way to describe it other than stagnation.