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0.5% growth 1st Quater 2011
Comments
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The public spending cuts won't be anything like as bad as people think. It's not like suddenly hundreds of thousands of people are going to be queuing for soup in the streets, many of the job losses will be by natural wastage, there will be redundancy packages that will take some of the strain while people find new jobs, and the whole package will be spread over time anyway. There has been a lot of expectation management going on, and in my view the opposition and unions are playing a dangerous game by overplaying the effects of the cuts, because frankly when things aren't so bad as they say they're going to be they're going to end up looking a bit foolish.
The private sector isn't in bad shape now. A couple of years ago things were really tough, but there's been a climb back and the only slight cause for concern in the numbers I've seen has been a flattening off since the turn of the year. I don't see any realistic prospect of another recession just at the moment, but on the other hand what growth there is is weak and a little fragile.
The biggest spectre on the horizon is what seems an inevitable far Eastern property crash led by China. I have absolutely no idea what effect that will have, but I'm guessing that capital invested there will dissolve, and there will be a large scale gold sell off to generate cash against a very severe contraction. It's difficult to see it being beneficial generally, but on the other hand it may reduce competition for commodities. Interesting times.
Inevitable? Sure, there is the inevitable UK crash too, and the inevitable US crash, and the inevitable end of the world, and the inevitable next world war.
Everything is inevitable JulieQ, it merely depends when it happens. Constatly predicting doom with the far east crash doesnt make you clever. You will be right in the end, but that is nothing. You should predict a time if you want to come across as an economic guru.I am not a financial expert, and the post above is merely my opinion.:j0 -
So if it was -0.1% last quarter and some spending was put back. I would make that still 0.1% positive for this quarter?
Is that a double Dip?
But I am obviously clueless.
PS I said nothing of people with special needs, I said your comment was special, and it still is.
The economy was smaller at the end of Q1 2011 than it was at the end of Q3 2010.
Do you understand that this is the case, and why? If not there is no point continuing this discussion.I am not a financial expert, and the post above is merely my opinion.:j0 -
Inevitable? Sure, there is the inevitable UK crash too, and the inevitable US crash, and the inevitable end of the world, and the inevitable next world war.
Everything is inevitable JulieQ, it merely depends when it happens. Constatly predicting doom with the far east crash doesnt make you clever. You will be right in the end, but that is nothing. You should predict a time if you want to come across as an economic guru.
It seems obvious that if the banks of the West were essentially insolvent then it is pretty unlikely those in China are well run. There are a lot of assets bubbles in Chinese property and a banking collapse seems inevitable.0 -
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PS I said nothing of people with special needs, I said your comment was special, and it still is.
And you obviously have no experience with people with special needs if you think thats even something to use as a degrogatary term.
You used it to belittle someone, which just goes to show how clueless you are about people with special needs. Well, guess what, they might not be able to do alot of things you can do, but at least many of them would be too kind hearted to make the comment you made.I am not a financial expert, and the post above is merely my opinion.:j0 -
The economy was smaller at the end of Q1 2011 than it was at the end of Q3 2010.
Do you understand that this is the case, and why? If not there is no point continuing this discussion.
Yes so your calculation is remove 0.4% from this quarters growth and add it to last quarter.
Giving you your -0.1% for q4 2010 (-0.5% + 0.4) = -0.1%
Q1 11 would be 0.1% (0.5% - 0.4%)
Q1's economy cant be smaller than q4 10's unless you make q4 10 positive.
thus no double dip?0 -
Radiantsoul wrote: »It was about the same size.
But lower. Very slightly perhaps, but still lower.I am not a financial expert, and the post above is merely my opinion.:j0 -
Yes so your calculation is remove 0.4% from this quarters growth and add it to last quarter.
Giving you your -0.1% for q4 2010 (-0.5% + 0.4) = -0.1%
Q1 11 would be 0.1% (0.5% - 0.4%)
Q1's economy cant be smaller than q4 10's unless you make q4 10 positive.
thus no double dip?
A recession is basically when the economy shirnks over a 6 month peroid. That has occured. Due to the technical definition of a recession (based on how countries calculate their quarterly figures) there has not been a recession. But inf act there has, it was only the snow which stopped the recessionI am not a financial expert, and the post above is merely my opinion.:j0 -
And you obviously have no experience with people with special needs if you think thats even something to use as a degrogatary term.
You used it to belittle someone, which just goes to show how clueless you are about people with special needs. Well, guess what, they might not be able to do alot of things you can do, but at least many of them would be too kind hearted to make the comment you made.
Sorry, but I said your comment was special, nothing of special needs?
I think any one on this forum knows
A) I would not mock the afflicted
I would come straight out with something sharp If I felt sharp.
I was being nice to you (I could have said a myriad of things, for your frankly bizzare comment) special does not mean disability etc.
If it did how would you get to a Special Constables? is that a secret dig?
This forum???0 -
A recession is basically when the economy shirnks over a 6 month peroid. That has occured. Due to the technical definition of a recession (based on how countries calculate their quarterly figures) there has not been a recession. But inf act there has, it was only the snow which stopped the recession
No it's not. A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative real (inflation adjusted*) GDP growth. Obviously if growth is negative for 2 quarters it will also be negative for the 6 month period too. However, growth of +0.2% in one quarter following a fall of -1.0% would not be a recession.
My personal belief is that a recession shouldn't be considered to be over until real GDP is back to where it started from before the recession. However, the definition of a recession is what it is no matter how much you may like it to be something different.
*Technically it's 'after adjusting for the GDP deflator' but that definition is good enough.0
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