0.5% growth 1st Quater 2011

shortchanged_2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Only provisional figures. Will still change.

But there's every possibility they could be revised down.

AD9898_2

Great news this, I'm starting to think quite bullish about things, so what's sure fire to happen is things will go t1ts up from this point on.

The good weather is having a strange effect on me, might even thank one of Hamish's posts at this rate.

angrypirate

shortchanged wrote: »

But there's every possibility they could be revised down.

or revised up

chewmylegoff

B_Blank wrote: »

SO the only reason we arent in a double dip recession was the snow. And spending cuts havent even started to bite yet.

this makes no sense, unless read in conjunction with your signature.

shortchanged_2

angrypirate wrote: »

or revised up

Suppose so.

B_Blank

Really2 wrote: »

That's most probably (struggling for polite word, lets make it a bit leftie) the most special statement I have read today.

How did the snow stop a double dip recession? As far as I know public spending cuts have been happening for nearly a year now the private sector have cut cost for 2-3 years?

You havent got a clue.

If the snow didnt happen we probably would of had around -0.1% growth (i.e. contraction) in the conomy. That would be a recession. By skewing Q4 lower, the snow also skewed Q1 up. How can you not understand this?

And no, cuts barely happened at all in the last year. Try checking out the figures kid. The cuts only really started in APril (there were tiny cuts last year).

P.S. Your post is really rude, and distasteful to people with special needs. I hope you have a bad day.

julieq

The public spending cuts won't be anything like as bad as people think. It's not like suddenly hundreds of thousands of people are going to be queuing for soup in the streets, many of the job losses will be by natural wastage, there will be redundancy packages that will take some of the strain while people find new jobs, and the whole package will be spread over time anyway. There has been a lot of expectation management going on, and in my view the opposition and unions are playing a dangerous game by overplaying the effects of the cuts, because frankly when things aren't so bad as they say they're going to be they're going to end up looking a bit foolish.

The private sector isn't in bad shape now. A couple of years ago things were really tough, but there's been a climb back and the only slight cause for concern in the numbers I've seen has been a flattening off since the turn of the year. I don't see any realistic prospect of another recession just at the moment, but on the other hand what growth there is is weak and a little fragile.

The biggest spectre on the horizon is what seems an inevitable far Eastern property crash led by China. I have absolutely no idea what effect that will have, but I'm guessing that capital invested there will dissolve, and there will be a large scale gold sell off to generate cash against a very severe contraction. It's difficult to see it being beneficial generally, but on the other hand it may reduce competition for commodities. Interesting times.

Radiantsoul

shortchanged wrote: »

Doesn't 0.5% fall in the previous quarter added to the 0.5% (estimated) growth for the last quarter equate to 0% growth for half a year?

Yes, exactly.

GDP was 99.6% of 2006 levels in Q3 10, 99.1% in Q4 10 and 99.6% in Q1 11. So we are back to where we were.

Really2

B_Blank wrote: »

You havent got a clue.

If the snow didnt happen we probably would of had around -0.1% growth (i.e. contraction) in the conomy. That would be a recession. By skewing Q4 lower, the snow also skewed Q1 up. How can you not understand this?

And no, cuts barely happened at all in the last year. Try checking out the figures kid. The cuts only really started in APril (there were tiny cuts last year).

P.S. Your post is really rude, and distasteful to people with special needs. I hope you have a bad day.

So if it was -0.1% last quarter and some spending was put back. I would make that still 0.1% positive for this quarter?

Is that a double Dip?

But I am obviously clueless.

PS I said nothing of people with special needs, I said your comment was special, and it still is.

chewmylegoff

B_Blank wrote: »

You havent got a clue.

If the snow didnt happen we probably would of had around -0.1% growth (i.e. contraction) in the conomy. That would be a recession. By skewing Q4 lower, the snow also skewed Q1 up. How can you not understand this?

Q4 2010 = -0.5%
Q1 2011 = 0.5%

if you say that snow has pushed growth from Q4 2010 to Q1 2011, and that without the snow Q4 2010 would have been -0.1%, then you are going to have to do some pretty strange maths to get Q1 2011 negative as well.