Acadametrics down 0.1%

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

As I say, if you say so.

Hamish obviously meant falls over this winter.

We'll ignore all the other threads where he suggests prices fall each winter. Obviously, he wasn't talking in that context. The context he has ALWAYS written in.

Julie says so. <rolls eyes>

As I say, you are speaking for him. Hamish won't even speak up or even respond to your sticking up for him!

Graham, Hamish can speak for himself, quite often I agree with him, sometimes I don't, and that's not the issue. I was explaining how weakening in prices in the winter can mean prices rise rather than drop on the basis you seemed to have misunderstood that.

You then chipped in to say that Hamish that prices drop in the winter and they don't and you can quote him on that, I quoted him first pointing out he didn't say that in this thread and you do your usual "you're all so wrong" and flounced off. You haven't yet quoted anything showing that Hamish says prices always drop over winter anyway. As usual you've muddled together a straw man.

So what was a correction of a misconception, which incidentally Gen did too at the same time I was doing it, but I don't see you rolling your eyes at him, turns into an argument over nothing.

chucky

julieq wrote: »

I quoted him first pointing out he didn't say that in this thread and you do your usual "you're all so wrong" and flounced off. You haven't yet quoted anything showing that Hamish says prices always drop over winter anyway. As usual you've muddled together a straw man.

IronWolf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You're being an idiot.

House price seasonal influences usually peak in mid summer and trough in mid winter.

In a booming market, those seasonal influences are masked, but they're still there. So prices could rise in all 12 months in a boom, but they'll rise more than they otherwise would have in summer, and less than they otherwise would have in winter.

External factors can of course also disrupt seasonality. So a stamp duty holiday that ends 31st Dec for example, can increase demand and therefore achieved prices at a time of year where demand and prices would normally be lower.

But in most years, June or July will be the peak of seasonal demand, and Dec/Jan/feb will be the trough.

Seasonal influences are easiest to see when prices are stagnating, or gently falling/rising...... like now, where prices peaked in the middle of last summer and have been slowly declining over winter until recently. They've now started rising again.

If you go back to the 1990's and look at the last time prices were not booming, but just moving relatively gently up or down, you see exactly the same thing.

From the Nationwide series:

Jan-91 £53,052

Jun-91 £55,107

Jan-92 £51,951

Jul-92 £52,727

Dec-92 £49,745

Jun-93 £52,786

Nov-93 £50,614

Jul-94 £52,121

Feb-95 £50,789

Jul-95 £51,623

Jan-96 £50,521

Jul-96 £53,589


And again more recently:

Jan-10 £163,481
Feb-10 £161,320 <

---

Lower in winter
Mar-10 £164,519
Apr-10 £167,802
May-10 £169,162
Jun-10 £170,111 <

---

Higher in summer
Jul-10 £169,347 <

---

Higher in summer
Aug-10 £166,507
Sep-10 £166,757
Oct-10 £164,279
Nov-10 £163,133
Dec-10 £162,249
Jan-11 £161,211 <

---

Lower in winter
Feb-11 £161,183 <

---

Lower in winter
Mar-11 £164,751

And now rising again......

You can see it most clearly when prices are not booming, but it exists all the time.

Seasonality is very real, and there's a reason all the indices adjust for it.

Feb - Feb is -1.7% on land registry.

winter isn't to blame

QED

julieq

Is there an average price via land registry table about anywhere in a concise form (this is a request for info, not trying to make any points about it).

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IronWolf wrote: »

Feb - Feb is -1.7% on land registry.

winter isn't to blame

Agreed.

Prices year on year on the land registry are 1.7% down.

I don't dispute that, and it gives you an accurate rate of decline for the land registry, as of 3 months ago.

But a small group of posters have been taking that 1.7%, and then adding the seasonal fluctuations to it, and then mistakenly trying to claim prices are dropping at a much bigger rate than the underlying data shows.

And of course, Nationwide is now up 0.1% YoY, and Acadametrics (LR data, with better statistical modelling) is now at 0% YoY.

What we are seeing is stagnation. Some indices slightly up YoY, some indices slightly down YoY.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

julieq wrote: »

Is there an average price via land registry table about anywhere in a concise form (this is a request for info, not trying to make any points about it).

Not that I've seen.

Nationwide gives a NSA nominal terms monthly back to 1991 in Excel format.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yep, you're getting your crash in inflation adjusted terms rather than in the actual price you pay.

Just like in the 90's.

Weird. I kind of thought all you bears would be far more excited.....

Oh of course. Because "real" falls in asset price value aren't real eh. :rotfl:

julieq

Irrelevant if the "asset" value falls really, because the debt is being inflated away too, while rents are being inflated up. That helps residential borrowers and BTL borrowers (in the latter case because their yields increase). You get plenty of value from a house by living in it which compensate if there's no capital growth.

geneer

julieq wrote: »

Irrelevant if the "asset" value falls really, because the debt is being inflated away too, while rents are being inflated up.

You seem to consider income irrelevant too.
Very strange.

Also unsure why debt errosion is a bad thing for someone who chooses to buy after a significant house price crash.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yep, you're getting your crash in inflation adjusted terms rather than in the actual price you pay.

Just like in the 90's.

Strange. Can this be the same hamish who a few days ago was commenting how the nominal fall in house prices was bigger than the 90's crash?

Incidentally, from the OP.

The latest figures also point to wide regional disparities, with eight of the 10 regions in England and Wales currently experiencing falling house prices. LSL said house price growth in greater London and the south-east was propping up the national average.

Does rather suggest that those falls are a fair bit higher in some places rather than others.
Have a word with Cleaver Hamish, he seems to have a good grasp on what an average actually is.

So we have:-
-4.3% annual fall in east anglia.
-4.1% annual fall in yorks & humber.
-3.4% annual fall in wales.
-2.3% annual fall in east midlands.
-2.1% fall in north west.
-2.5% in the north.
-0.8% in the south west.
A massive 0.5% annual increase in the south east.

And london +2.8%.

So really, excluding london and the much of the uk is dropping.
Include those "real" falls, and we're back to crash cruise speed in a number of regions.