Acadametrics down 0.1%

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Quote something else by all means Graham, but that's what Hamish said in this thread.

He said nothing about falls EVERY WINTER. He was talking about the period of 8 months selected by the poster he was reacting to over THIS WINTER. On a flat trend you would expect to see falls. On a rising trend you wouldn't necessarily see falls.

Erm, yer. Of course. If you say so.

Why are you answering for Hamish all the time? The above just makes him look silly, as why would anyone make such a comment?

It's like the government saying the deficit has gone up and me replying "over spring then? shocker".

B_Blank

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Erm, yer. Of course. If you say so.

Why are you answering for Hamish all the time? The above just makes him look silly, as why would anyone make such a comment?

It's like the government saying the deficit has gone up and me replying "over spring then? shocker".

If Hamish is right we should see some huge rises on the land registry (the only useful survey of house prices imo) data starting from this month!

Lets see shall we!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

B_Blank wrote: »

If Hamish is right we should see some huge rises on the land registry (the only useful survey of house prices imo) data starting from this month!

Lets see shall we!

LR lags by 3 months, as I already told you twice.

Try June onwards.

B_Blank

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

LR lags by 3 months, as I already told you twice.

Try June onwards.

And yet you claim drops in the house price index in november (on land registry) is winter!

This is getting too easy!! I am on a roll! Proving Hamish wrong every post I make. Thanks Hamish!:T

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

B_Blank wrote: »

Thanks Hamish!:T

You're welcome.

Care to explain why you're almost 100% out on your estimate of price falls?

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Erm, yer. Of course. If you say so.

Why are you answering for Hamish all the time? The above just makes him look silly, as why would anyone make such a comment?

It's like the government saying the deficit has gone up and me replying "over spring then? shocker".

Graham, I read the thread, I read your reply, and I was pointing out that you had misintepreted what Hamish had said, the same as Gen did in the next post after mine.

If you're going to throw a hissy fit because someone points out you've misunderstood an argument someone was making, you're going to end up perpetually at a tangent to the discussion.

Hamish was talking about falls this winter. There were falls this winter. He was not surprised by that because as the Nationwide point out there is seasonality in the strength of prices essentially due to seasonal supply/demand fluctuations. The poster he was reacting to had chosen 8 months including 6 winter months to make a point. It's perfectly reasonable for anyone on the other side of the argument to point that out.

If you're going to argue that Hamish has said something different in the past then go and find it as you said you could. If you're going to argue that Hamish didn't mean what I said he did in this thread then go right ahead. But please, stop this prima donna indignation act every time someone disagrees with you.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Graham, I read the thread, I read your reply, and I was pointing out that you had misintepreted what Hamish had said, the same as Gen did in the next post after mine.

If you're going to throw a hissy fit because someone points out you've misunderstood an argument someone was making, you're going to end up perpetually at a tangent to the discussion.

Hamish was talking about falls this winter. There were falls this winter. He was not surprised by that because as the Nationwide point out there is seasonality in the strength of prices essentially due to seasonal supply/demand fluctuations. The poster he was reacting to had chosen 8 months including 6 winter months to make a point. It's perfectly reasonable for anyone on the other side of the argument to point that out.

If you're going to argue that Hamish has said something different in the past then go and find it as you said you could. If you're going to argue that Hamish didn't mean what I said he did in this thread then go right ahead. But please, stop this prima donna indignation act every time someone disagrees with you.

As I say, if you say so.

Hamish obviously meant falls over this winter.

We'll ignore all the other threads where he suggests prices fall each winter. Obviously, he wasn't talking in that context. The context he has ALWAYS written in.

Julie says so. <rolls eyes>

As I say, you are speaking for him. Hamish won't even speak up or even respond to your sticking up for him!

B_Blank

Graham_Devon wrote: »

As I say, if you say so.

Hamish obviously meant falls over this winter.

We'll ignore all the other threads where he suggests prices fall each winter. Obviously, he wasn't talking in that context. The context he has ALWAYS written in.

Julie says so. <rolls eyes>

As I say, you are speaking for him. Hamish won't even speak up or even respond to your sticking up for him!

Hamish has been soundly defeated this topic.

He wont address the question that falls in october on the land registry cant be winter, because by his own admission these figures lag 3 months.

So he thinks July is winter.

Says it all really! :rotfl:

Loughton_Monkey

B_Blank wrote: »

.....So he thinks July is winter.....

It is in Aberdeen!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

B_Blank wrote: »

So he thinks July is winter.

:

You're being an idiot.

House price seasonal influences usually peak in mid summer and trough in mid winter.

In a booming market, those seasonal influences are masked, but they're still there. So prices could rise in all 12 months in a boom, but they'll rise more than they otherwise would have in summer, and less than they otherwise would have in winter.

External factors can of course also disrupt seasonality. So a stamp duty holiday that ends 31st Dec for example, can increase demand and therefore achieved prices at a time of year where demand and prices would normally be lower.

But in most years, June or July will be the peak of seasonal demand, and Dec/Jan/feb will be the trough.

Seasonal influences are easiest to see when prices are stagnating, or gently falling/rising...... like now, where prices peaked in the middle of last summer and have been slowly declining over winter until recently. They've now started rising again.

If you go back to the 1990's and look at the last time prices were not booming, but just moving relatively gently up or down, you see exactly the same thing.

From the Nationwide series:

Jan-91 £53,052

Jun-91 £55,107

Jan-92 £51,951

Jul-92 £52,727

Dec-92 £49,745

Jun-93 £52,786

Nov-93 £50,614

Jul-94 £52,121

Feb-95 £50,789

Jul-95 £51,623

Jan-96 £50,521

Jul-96 £53,589


And again more recently:

Jan-10 £163,481
Feb-10 £161,320 <

---

Lower in winter
Mar-10 £164,519
Apr-10 £167,802
May-10 £169,162
Jun-10 £170,111 <

---

Higher in summer
Jul-10 £169,347 <

---

Higher in summer
Aug-10 £166,507
Sep-10 £166,757
Oct-10 £164,279
Nov-10 £163,133
Dec-10 £162,249
Jan-11 £161,211 <

---

Lower in winter
Feb-11 £161,183 <

---

Lower in winter
Mar-11 £164,751

And now rising again......

You can see it most clearly when prices are not booming, but it exists all the time.

Seasonality is very real, and there's a reason all the indices adjust for it.