Acadametrics down 0.1%

ukcarper

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What...you mean, because of a recession?

You didn't say when apart from recessions, for any in a period of stagnation that appears to be what prices do when HPI is rampant they don’t drop at all.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

B_Blank wrote: »

Hamish. In the last 8 months house prices are down about 5% across england and wales (see land registry). .

I just did......

Try 2.9%.

So almost half the number you claim.

Ooops.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What...you mean, because of a recession?

So you now revise your claim from " were never seasonal prior to 2008" to "were only not seasonal when prices are in a boom".

Interesting.

ukcarper

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

I have complete faith in Hamish.

To spring to his defense, I think he would say 'yes', but all those winters were the wrong sort of winters, with the wrong sort of cold and snow.

I strongly suspect that if we can dig out the figures for 1947, then we would find that they did go down temporarily over the winter - and then perked up 15% or so after that....

I tried 1963 they didn't then.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So you now revise your claim from " were never seasonal prior to 2008" to "were only not seasonal when prices are in a boom".

Interesting.

I have no idea what you just said.

And ukcarper, you completely made my point. You can only point out that house prices have fallen back in winter....in a recession.

I'm stating to Hamish, who makes out prices fall every winter, that it is simply not the case, which I guess is why he's ignoring me and then typing stuff which I can't even fathom out.

julieq

Graham, you're missing the point about how price changes work on the basis of rates of change. You're quite wrong to be trying to score points over Hamish on this.

Look at the seasonal adjustment methodology for the Nationwide at

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/methodology.htm

In particular, note:

"House prices are slightly seasonal - that is, prices are higher at certain times of year irrespective of the overall trend. This tends to be in spring and summer, when more buyers are in the market and hence sellers do not need to discount prices so heavily, in order to achieve a sale. The effect on prices over the year is of the order of +/- 1.5%; however this is much smaller than the change in volume of property transactions. The seasonal effect is estimated each month using established statistical methods."

That doesn't mean prices are lower in winter. It means the rate of change of prices can reduce. If you have an upwards trend, the upwards trend is reduced in the winter. Prices can still increase. If you have a flat trend, the seasonal effect can reduce prices. Prices are weaker in the Winter as opposed to the Summer.

This is not changing the rules, it's not changing definitions, it's about understanding the definitions.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Graham, you're missing the point about how price changes work on the basis of rates of change. You're quite wrong to be trying to score points over Hamish on this.

Look at the seasonal adjustment methodology for the Nationwide at

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/methodology.htm

In particular, note:

"House prices are slightly seasonal - that is, prices are higher at certain times of year irrespective of the overall trend. This tends to be in spring and summer, when more buyers are in the market and hence sellers do not need to discount prices so heavily, in order to achieve a sale. The effect on prices over the year is of the order of +/- 1.5%; however this is much smaller than the change in volume of property transactions. The seasonal effect is estimated each month using established statistical methods."

That doesn't mean prices are lower in winter. It means the rate of change of prices can reduce. If you have an upwards trend, the upwards trend is reduced in the winter. Prices can still increase. If you have a flat trend, the seasonal effect can reduce prices. Prices are weaker in the Winter as opposed to the Summer.

This is not changing the rules, it's not changing definitions, it's about understanding the definitions.

Julie.

I'm not missing the point, as you so kindly put it.

This is EXACTLY what i explained to Hamish. That the rate of increases slow in winter. Yet he keeps saying prices fall. I'll dig out the post if you like?

You want to direct your holier than thou comments towards Hamish. Not me dearie!

Generali

I think a lot of posters are missing the point of seasonal adjustment.

In general, house prices tend to rise by the most in January (or fall by the least) and rise by the least (or fall by the most) in December. If the market is flat and you use a non-seasonally adjusted index then prices will rise in January and then those rises will slow as the year goes on until prices start to fall some time around July.

However, the maximum seasonal adjustment is about 1% for house prices so if prices are already rising or falling by more than that amount the underlying change in prices will be greater than the seasonal adjustment.

HTH.

julieq

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Over winter then....

Shocker.

Quote something else by all means Graham, but that's what Hamish said in this thread.

He said nothing about falls EVERY WINTER. He was talking about the period of 8 months selected by the poster he was reacting to over THIS WINTER. On a flat trend you would expect to see falls. On a rising trend you wouldn't necessarily see falls.

chucky

i wish people would stop posting stuff and pretend they never said it 4 posts later.

they just discredit themselves and make themselves look very stupid.