First time buyers priced out...

julieq

Graham, no-one is saying that you can anticipate or time markets reliably. I am explaining that affordability is not solely based on ticket price, which was the point I was responding to.

Incidentally it's pretty pathetic to pull up a single mistake in the date from a post a couple of months ago which I corrected at the time as if you won some kind of big argument. It didn't invalidate the point then, and it doesn't now. It's just silly nitpicking.

Actually I agree with Cleaver. If you sit out a market waiting to try and call some set of ideal circumstances, you'll have difficulty ever getting in to it, because there will always be some reason not to. Take for example someone who arranged a mortgage in Sept 2008 and then had cold feet in Jan 2009 because they thought prices would fall further. They'd now be 2 years down the line looking at prices 10% higher and rates 8 times what they could have been paying. Over 25 years you'll tend to average out any luck in terms of rates you pay, and affordability will tend to increase over time, but you'd be very unlucky to be worse off being in a market rather than not being in it.

Obviously if you can dump your husband and have him pay for your house you'll be better off still. But it will make him very BITTER, especially if he finds he's priced out himself .

julieq

Le_Chuck wrote: »

I'll raise you 2002, when prices were less than half of what the are today & rates were also fairly low (base rate of 4%)

AND you got a soft landing or two

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

all these people that are trying to buy at the optimum point to save a few thousand pounds are going to get one hell of a shock when they miss out by trying to be smart.

I honestly don't think anyone is under the illusion they can buy at an optimum point.

They are just waiting until they see value for money. Value for money being dependant on their personal view of value for money.

Infact, we have evidence of what I have just said on this very forum, after having watched this happen in front of our very eyes.

Macque and Ad. Both waiting until they saw value for money, based on their personal measures.

They didn't wait for an optimum point, but both said prices will fall, and will continue to fall yet. But both found a point in which they felt value for money had been found, and bought. Still think prices will fall, but don't continuously wait for an "optimum point".

Optimum points are much like the pot luck thing I mentioned to Julie.

You only know the point when its passed.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Graham, no-one is saying that you can anticipate or time markets reliably. I am explaining that affordability is not solely based on ticket price, which was the point I was responding to.

Really?

So what was this about?

In fact it would have been far better to have taken that combination than to wait a few months for a further 10% correction (even had there been one rather than a bounce back), because at that time the available mortgage rates were high multiples of the available tracker based rates from just prior to the crash.

That's not about affordability. Thats about timing markets, and not waiting.

May be confused, but don't know what else you meant by that, as it's all hindsight and you talking about timing markets.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

They are just waiting until they see value for money. Value for money being dependant on their personal view of value for money.

..............................

Cleaver wrote: »

I'd be asking myself the following questions:

• Do I have at least a 20% deposit for the house I want?
• Am I buying a house which seems good value? By that I mean, not my own definition of 'good value' ("pah, that house on for £200k is blatantly only worth £100k...". I mean a house that is similar to 2005/6 prices, or isn't priced at top whack, street record price.
• Can I get a mortgage for 4% / 5% fixed for five years or so?
• Is my mortgage repayment 35% or less than my monthly pay?
• Am I ready to see my house go up and down in value over the next decade? Am I ready to face interest rates at 8%?
• Am I ready to see further falls of maybe 10% or more and just be happy that I've bought a house I love, at a rate I can afford that I'm in for the long term? Will I be comfortable seeing my house fall in value?
• Do I really feel that I want to buy a place rather than renting one? Do I know why I want to buy rather than rent?

If you can answer 'yes' to all of these, then buy a house.

julieq

That's a very sensible view Graham. I think we can now welcome you into the bull camp, because that is precisely what we've been saying throughout. Welcome.

julieq

Oh for God's sake Graham, you are utterly hopeless. I said "anyone *fortunate* enough to take that combination" would have had optimum affordability, EVEN HAD THE MARKET CONTINUED TO FALL instead of rise.

That is the beginning and and of what I said. I didn't say that anyone should attempt to time a market to get an optimum outcomes, in fact quite the contrary, I'm saying that attempting to time a market will almost always keep you out of it, it's a fools game.

The word "fortunate" implies fortune or luck, not intention. And this is in a discussion of affordability not being all about ticket price, not about making a perfect decision based on a particular set of circumstances.

Understand? Affordability is not all about ticket price. End of.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Understand? Affordability is not all about ticket price. End of.

Ineed I do. Was trying to tell you that on page 2, and got a load of flack for it.

julieq

Really? Well I wasn't on page 2. So whatever happened to you there has nothing to do with me.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The_Fox wrote: »

There is no race for FTB's, !

Oh, there most certainly is.....

Do you think you're the only person in Britain with a savings account and a desire to own a house???