Premium Bond Shenanigans

Paulee

Christ, you lot are SO clever - my head's spinning!

For what it's worth, my wife & I each have the maximum amount invested in PB's and I agree with Luggagewarrior re. the pattern with wins.

Do I think that it is rigged - YES; do I trust anything to do with government run things, ANY government -NO; do I trust things like the Lottery - NO; will I continue to hold the PB's - Yes, probably - because like the majority of people who hold them I'm gullable, think I've got a safe, "light" way of gambling and am probably a little greedy.

Dan29

Paulee wrote:

Do I think that it is rigged - YES; do I trust anything to do with government run things, ANY government -NO; do I trust things like the Lottery - NO; will I continue to hold the PB's - Yes, probably - because like the majority of people who hold them I'm gullable, think I've got a safe, "light" way of gambling and am probably a little greedy.

Of course it's not rigged. What would be the point?!

luggagewarrior

Reference the above, with respect to the previous post. The point is that there is cash to be made from all of us sheeple out here, by audacious but not too obvious p*sstaking by the bond organisers.
I didn't start this thread so that it could be a platform for people with brains the size of planets to spout A level statistics. I started it to see if anyone else had experienced delays in getting THEIR money from the treasury as promptly as they should have done.
The discussions about binomial progressions within pascals triangle left me dumfounded, however I can understand the premise that if YOU hold THEIR money for a period of time, you get interest. If YOU hold MILLIONS of peoples money for a period of time, you get millions times the interest!!

How simple is that.
I lost cash on the way in and the way out due to delays caused by PB admin people. (Forget all about the odds thing, that's a sepparate issue).
Simple, and so long as we are all in the dark about the individual effect to each of us, we won't be outraged by the accumulation of small effects, which those snake oil salesmen are reaping the benefit of. Unless we get together and compare notes.

God bless the internet.
May one man know the thoughts of a thousand, or a thousand men know the thoughts of just one.

LW

ps Dan29, - do you work for PB PR?

Dan29

luggagewarrior wrote:

ps Dan29, - do you work for PB PR?

No - however neither am I an a paranoid conspiracy theorist.

luggagewarrior wrote:

the first was that I think that the odds are adjusted to favour fresh entrants and complainers

Can you explain what the point would be of rigging the draws?

Dan29

luggagewarrior wrote:

Reference the above, with respect to the previous post. The point is that there is cash to be made from all of us sheeple out here, by audacious but not too obvious p*sstaking by the bond organisers.

Oh sorry, "Duhh!" actually is your argument? So there is money to be made by getting people to invest, paying out to them for three months and then never letting them win a prize again?

How does that encourage them to leave their money in Premium Bonds? Do you not think many people, after a sustained period of no wins, would withdraw their money?

What do you think such a policy would do for word-of-mouth publicity for Premium Bonds? Do you not think it would become rather negative? Wouldn't word quickly spread around this quite small island that Premium Bonds are rigged?

Oh by the way I have just had the maximum number of bonds go into this month's draw for the first time, and haven't won a bean. No need for you to reply, I think you've just been proved wrong.

RayWolfe

Dan29 wrote:

No - however neither am I an a paranoid conspiracy theorist.

Therefor you don't really fit on these boards.
To fit in around here you HAVE TO believe that everyone is out to get you and whilst not entirely necessary IT HELPS to be a Daily Mail reader. ;-)

Graham_Devon

This theory don't work for me. Have had 10k in premium bonds for 3 draws, decembers being the latest. Have not won a bean. I'm new to premium bonds, thought I would give them a try.

So, am now cashing them in after giving the treasury a free loan for nearly 4 months of which I have lost well over £150 in interest!

As for the 'you win more when they are new'. Erm, no.

luggagewarrior

Dan, me old china, I can only go by experience plus a dash of probability, Average payout 3.15%. I didnt get that much, my inlaws didn't get that much, just the odd token now and again which kept them hanging on, like most others just on the off chance that, perhaps, yes perhaps they might just get that £1 million. But oh so unlikely, and so many people keep the bonds because of the inertia and optimism.
I'm so pleased that you've won, and because you , one individual out of millions have one, then I am obviously wrong.
Perhaps, then again, maybe you are so wrapped up in your winnings that you're missing my point;
I WASN'T TALKING ABOUT THE ODDS, IT WAS THE ENTRY AND EXIT DELAYS THAT COST ME MONEY. I ASKED IF IT HAD HAPPENED TO OTHER PEOPLE TO SEE IF I WAS THE ISOLATED CASE OR WHETHER IT WAS MORE WIDESPREAD!
Can you see my original point now, I'll say it again, I WASNT TALKING ABOUT THE ODDS.
I'm happy for you that you are so trusting of the government, the people who regularly get censured for sleaze and corruption and take us into TOTALLY illegal wars, causing the deaths of hundereds of our servicemen and tens of thousands of innocents but got away with it cos Tonys cronies spun the legality for them, (hang on I must have imagined that cos I'm paranoid remember)- yes those people, when there is money involved, and they make the rules, then a degree of rigging is probable.
Enjoy your winnings

luggagewarrior

Graham _devon, I am really sorry that you didn't even get the introductory luck, Like I said previously, I can only go on experience, and the three times that I've invested, I had initial winnings, then it became very sparse. This could be a decent test for my theory. Cash in the bonds if you want to, but do it about 8-10 days before the draw ( 1st of the month ) and tick the box marked hold untill the next draw, then see when you get your stake back.
I'd be interested in the result, and would like to be wrong.
LW

Graham_Devon

I need to cash them in today, at least get the forms and send them off. Don't really want to lose another months interest.

And as for being sorry, lol, no need for you to be sorry mate, unless your Ernie!

I live in Devon obviously, 2nd largest county I think? Seems a little weird that theres only 4 winners on the main page from Devon, but lots from smaller areas. But then that's just my paranoia setting in now, they will never please everyone.

I'm cashing them in A) as I haven't won anything from a 10k stake in 3 draws b) I can get intrest elsewhere and with the intrest rates going up 0.5% since I bought the bonds i'm loosing even more money c) the government has enough money off me without them sitting on my depriciating 10k!

Thought about leaving £1000 in there, but really, I cannot see the point, especially with an even smaller stake. Once bitten etc....

Couldnt believe it this morning when I logged in and got a further 'not this time'.